The New York Mets (+105) visit Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium to take on the Miami Marlins (-125) on Saturday, March 2, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:10pm EST in Jupiter, FL.

This season, the Mets are 3-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 2-3 ATS.

Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Starling Marte has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• Tim Locastro has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+1.05 Units / 52% ROI)
• Daniel Vogelbach has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+0.95 Units / 47% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Peyton Burdick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 80% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
• Jacob Amaya has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
• Jonathan Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 60% ROI)
• Jacob Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 152 games (+17.70 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+2.10 Units / 4% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mets are 5-0 against the Run Line (+6.32 Units / 109.91% ROI).

• 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 16.86% ROI
• 0-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.32 Units / -78.26% ROI
• 4-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +4 Units / 72.99% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this Spring Training, the Marlins are 2-3 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -26.32% ROI).

• 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -68% ROI
• 1-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -61.06% ROI
• 4-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +3 Units / 56.07% ROI

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Sean Manaea allowed a slugging percentage of .750 (27 Total Bases / 36 ABs) on low fastballs in the 2023 season — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .410 — fourth Percentile.

Opponents had a miss rate of just 20% (32/160) against Sean Manaea on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 7th lowest among in NL; League Avg: 30% — ninth Percentile.

Sean Manaea elevated 48% of his pitches (188/391) when ahead in the count in the 2023 season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.

74% of Sean Manaea’s fastball strikeouts were elevatedin the 2023 season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 51% — 98th Percentile.

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Eury Perez allowed a slugging percentage of .758 (47 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on inside fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .442 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 15% (19/129) against Eury Perez’s fastball in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 27% (63/233) against Eury Perez in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 52% (27/52) against Eury Perez on inside fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

  
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