The New York Mets (-150) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+125) on Sunday, July 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.

This season, the Mets are 50-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 44-54 ATS.

Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: Christian Scott 0-2, 4.40 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-9, 4.74 ERA

Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 58.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games at home (+22.20 Units / 202% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+18.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 88 games (+18.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games (+12.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+11.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 49 games (+7.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 39 games (+5.65 Units / 12% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 51 games at home (+17.60 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 80 games (+15.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 93 games (+13.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.55 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 34 games at home (+2.60 Units / 7% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 46-51 against the Run Line (-7.9 Units / -6.36% ROI).

• 50-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -0.64% ROI
• 51-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.7 Units / 5.4% ROI
• 41-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.35 Units / -13.87% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 44-54 against the Run Line (-25.86 Units / -19.86% ROI).

• 34-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.25 Units / -21.35% ROI
• 52-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.2 Units / 3.88% ROI
• 44-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.35 Units / -11.49% ROI

Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Christian Scott has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to May 24th — tied with Michael Lorenzen and Ben Lively for the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Christian Scott has allowed a slugging percentage of .722 (26 Total Bases / 36 ABs) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .404 — fifth Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 22% (4/18) against Christian Scott in his last two starts — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .115 (3-for-26) against Christian Scott when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .219 — 93rd Percentile.

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Trevor Rogers has allowed three-ball counts to 37% of batters they faced (23/62 PA’s) this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — second Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .319 (210 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 28% (73/260) against Trevor Rogers on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 50% (177/356) on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

  
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