The New York Mets are flying high to begin the season, and they're positioned to take another series win, this time on the road against the San Francisco Giants. Let's examine the matchup in our Mets-Giants pick based on the top MLB odds from our best sportsbooks.
Losing has felt like a nearly foreign concept to the Mets recently, a streaking club that's won six of its last eight games. That includes taking a series on the road against the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers, and winning two of the first three games during their current set against the Giants.
Chronic baseball masher Pete Alonso has been central to that success, and he's well-positioned to thrive again on Sunday Night Baseball.
Here is our best Mets-Giants pick (odds via our best MLB betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Mets vs. Giants pick
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Alonso being held without a hit feels like it happens about as often as a solar eclipse.
We saw that rarity on Saturday, but a slugger who's posting a 1.000 OPS and a .279/.361/.640 slash line has gone hitless in just seven of his 22 games so far in 2023. He's also recorded eight multi-hit outings, and most impressively and critically for this wager, 11 contests with three-plus total bases.
Collecting bases becomes much easier when you follow the breezy one-swing path to four bags and hit so very many dingers. Alonso is tied for the league lead with 10, and he's not purely taking aim at that guy trying to sell Skittles in the fifth deck o f the outfield either. He makes consistent quality hard contact, and the two-time All-Star is posting an expected batting average (.321) and expected slugging percentage (.681) that both rank in the top 5% of the league, according to Baseball Savant.
The extra-base factory that is Alonso will go up against Giants right-hander Ross Stripling, who's quite charitable with his long-ball offerings. Stripling has already allowed six round-trippers over just 12 1/3 innings in 2023. We may be seeing early signs of him reverting to his 2021 self when the veteran gave up 23 homers over 19 starts and five relief appearances. His expected ERA and slugging allowed rank in the bottom 2% of the league.
Stripling also relies heavily on his breaking and offspeed repertoire while throwing his slider 28.8% of the time, and his changeup 21.2%. Alonso is annihilating anything breaking and posting a .360 batting average and .880 slu gging percentage against those pitches. He also hit .339 against offspeed pitches in 2022.
The juicy opportunities won't end if Alonso can't get it done against Stripling. The hurler is returning to the rotation after three appearances out of the bullpen, and he likely won't work deep into the game. The Giants' bullpen is ranked 27th in baseball with a 5.56 ERA.
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Mets vs. Giants best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | +190 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
If you're feeling feisty and want to go beyond the conventional offerings for total bases, FanDuel is calling your name. It's the only option among our top sports betting sites where you can make a play on three, four, or even five total bases.
With that in mind, if you're brimming with confidence and want an even greater return, FanDuel is featuring four-plus bases from Alonso at +250, and five-plus at +550.
Alonso has recorded five-plus bases twice already in this series against the Giants.
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Mets vs. Giants odds
Mets vs. Giants odds analysis
The Mets are commonly and narrowly favored, sitting around -110 to – 115. The Giants were a slightly steeper underdog when lines first became available, getting as high as +100. But they've now shifted to only a little below the Mets at most of our best MLB betting sites, and even with them through PointsBet. Now -105 is the near consensus on San Francisco.
The total sits at 9 across the board. Over bettors should head to BetMGM, which is offering +100 odds. The Under generally sits at -115. The total opened at 8.5 before shifting to 9 late Saturday night.
The Mets are attracting a whopping 73% of the action. Meanwhile, there's a more even split tied to the total, with the Under just a little ahead while getting 52% of the action.
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Mets vs. Giants game info
- Date: Sunday, April 23, 2023
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
- Weather: 52 degrees with 17-mph westerly winds
Mets-Giants pick made 4/23/2023 at 1:12 p.m. ET.
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