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It's win or go home for the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday, as they'll square off in a decisive Game 3 with a spot in the NLDS on the line. Can the Brewers carry the momentum of a massive victory on Wednesday into this do-or-die showdown, or will the Mets bounce back?
- Thanks to a heroic performance by Brewers rookie Jackson Chourio and a massive game-winning home run by Garrett Mitchell (who entered as a pinch-runner), Milwaukee survived on Wednesday
- The home team sends rookie Tobias Myers to the mound in Game 3, who finished the season with a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 138 innings this year
- Squaring off against him is veteran left-hander Jose Quintana, who's revived his career in New York following some rough seasons with the Chicago Cubs
- First pitch is expected for 7:08 p.m. ET from American Family Field, and the Brewers are small favorites to advance to the NLDS
Will we witness another heroic performance by one of these team's superstars in Game 3 on Thursday?
Three teams already punched their ticket on Wednesday, heavily altering both our World Series odds and World Series MVP odds.
Mets vs. Brewers predictions: Game 3
- Brewers moneyline (-125 via Caesars)
- Francisco Lindor to hit a home run (+450 via FanDuel)
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Mets vs. Brewers?
First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET, American Family Field
Best odds: -125 via Caesars | Implied probability: 55.56%
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I have to back what I believe is the better team in this matchup, especially now that it has momentum on its side.
The Brewers looked poised for an early trip to Cancun on Wednesday before Chourio's eighth-inning blast tied things up, and Mitchell gave his team the lead three batters later.
Now Milwaukee sends arguably its most consistent starting pitcher this season to the hill in this elimination game. Despite being a rookie and pitching alongside of the game's most electric arms in Freddy Peralta, Myers shined the brightest in the Brewers' rotation this year.
He accrued 2.2 fWAR in just 138 innings, and he does very well to limit walks, which is vital in a game of this magnitude.
Additionally, Myers' last appearance came against these same Mets under similar circumstances – they were fighting for their playoff hopes. He served as a bulk reliever following Jared Koenig in that one, allowing only one hit over four shutout frames.
Meanwhile, Quintana also pitched in that game. Though he struck out nine, he also allowed five hits and two walks for two earned runs, and he lasted only 4 1/3 innings.
The Brewers opened closer to -110 on the moneyline, so we've already seen some decent action on them ahead of Thursday afternoon.
Caesars is offering the longest price of all of our best sports betting sites, as the rest are at -130. Let's take advantage before this price moves to match those.
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I don't think his team will win on Thursday, but that won't be Franc isco Lindor's fault.
The likely NL MVP runner-up was scorching-hot to end the campaign, saving his best for last when he drilled a massive home run to punch the Mets' postseason ticket.
However, Lindor is 0-for-6 in the first two games of this series. With his team once again fighting for survival, I think we see him rise to the occasion.
We're also betting on the value of these odds as much as we are the player. Most of our best sports betting apps are hovering around +370 for Lindor to hit a home run, and Pinnacle – which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry – has it priced at +362 after opening at +369.
Therefore, these +450 odds are a steal, and we're getting roughly 20% positive expected value on this bet based on Lindor's home run projection.
Add in the fact that playoff baseball is an entire ly different animal and sometimes star players just do things that can't be explained, and I think Lindor's home run odds should be trading closer to +300, which would have an implied probability of 25%.
Best odds: +450 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 18.18%
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Mets vs. Brewers odds & game info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 3
- First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
- Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Brewers (-130 via BetMGM)
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