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The MLB postseason is here, and following two exciting games in the American League, the first NL Wild Card Series gets underway when the New York Mets visit the Milwaukee Brewers. It's fair to wonder if the road team will have anything left in the tank following an emotional playoff-clinching performance on Monday.
Our Mets vs. Brewers prediction features one of a few true surprises in the 2024 MLB postseason picture. Along with the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals in the AL – who we featured in our Tigers vs. Astros prediction and Royals vs. Orioles prediction – Milwaukee was very much not expected to still be playing in October before the season began.
The Brewers were projected to finish fourth in the NL Central – barely ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates – by the projected win totals at our best sports betting sites. Now, they're set to host Game 1 at American Family Field, with first p itch expected for 5:32 p.m. ET.
Facing the Brewers is a Mets squad that squeaked into the postseason thanks to a victory in the first contest of their doubleheader with the Atlanta Braves on Monday.
Can the Brewers take advantage of a potentially tired Mets team and continue this surprising run, or will New York ride its wave of momentum into the playoffs?
Mets vs. Brewers predictions: Game 1
- Brewers moneyline (-140 via Betway)
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 total bases (+137 via Betway)
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Mets vs. Brewers?
First pitch: 5:32 p.m. ET, American Family Field
Best odds: -140 via Betway | Implied probability: 58.33%
The narrative surrounding this game will surely center around how unfair it is that the Mets just played on Monday while the Brewers did on Sunday. And sure, that might play a role in the result of Game 1. However, the reason I'm picking the Brewers is simply because they're better.
Milwaukee ranked fifth in the majors by batter fWAR thanks to a blend of quality contact hitting (.248 average was eighth-best), speed (217 stolen bases were second-most), and elite defense (11.5 defensive rating was sixth-best).
Additionally, the Brewers' pitching staff had the fifth-best ERA in the majors, and they feature one of the best 7-8-9 bullpen trios in baseball, with Jared Koenig (2.47 ERA) and Trevor Megill (2.72 ERA) setting up one of the game's truly elite closers, Devin Williams (1.25 ERA).
The Mets are certainly no pushovers, but they're not being priced as though they are.
Ne w York's +120 moneyline odds are the shortest among any of the underdogs on Tuesday at Betway. Accordingly, the Brewers own the longest moneyline odds of the favorites despite finishing with the third-best run differential in all of baseball this season. Let's take advantage of this pricing.
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He may not be crowned the NL Rookie of the Year, but Jackson Chourio had an incredible season.
Chourio accrued 3.9 fWAR in a 20/20 campaign, having a second half to remember with a .310/.363/.552 slash line. We're looking for Chourio to continue his hot hitting in Game 1 of this Wild Card Series.
Taking the mound for the Mets is Luis Severino, who was in the bottom half of the league in batting average against, and neither his 1.14 home runs per nine innings nor his 12.3% HR/FB were especially impressive. He also doesn't strike out a ton of hitters, at just 7.96 per nine.
Also working in Chourio's favor is that he hits toward the top of Milwaukee's lineup (either leadoff or in the two-spot) and doesn't take a ton of walks, providing him with plenty of opportunities to rack up hits and go Over 1.5 total bases.
Best odds: +137 via Betway | Implied probability: 42.19%
Mets vs. Brewers odds & game info
- When: Tuesday, Oct. 1
- First pitch: 5:32 p.m. ET
- Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Brewers (-140 via Betway)
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