The New York Mets (+125) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-150) on Monday, September 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.

This season, the Mets are 88-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 74-86 ATS.

Mets vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 4-5, 3.99 ERA
• Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 8-7, 3.47 ERA

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Luisangel Acuna has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+27.00 Units / 338% ROI)
• Jose Iglesias has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 22 games (+16.90 Units / 47% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+14.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 38 games (+11.95 Units / 29% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Gio Urshela has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+27.00 Units / 193% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 37 of his last 44 games (+25.60 Units / 34% ROI)
• Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 40 games (+18.40 Units / 46% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+17.45 Units / 58% ROI)
• Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+14.45 Units / 35% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 101 games (+20.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 102 games (+15.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 away games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 104 games (+10.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 away games (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 93 of their last 146 games (+39.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+6.40 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 games (+3.65 Units / 5% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 82-78 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 1.01% ROI).

• 88-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 3.59% ROI
• 79-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -1.48% ROI
• 74-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.7 Units / -6.79% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 74-86 against the Run Line (-16.05 Units / -8.26% ROI).

• 88-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.45 Units / -8.18% ROI
• 58-96 when betting on the total runs Over for -46.6 Units / -26.67% ROI
• 96-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +32 Units / 18.03% ROI

Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .413 (172 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: .323 — first Percentile.

Tylor Megill has not allowed a home run in any of the last 27.1 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 88.2.

Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .396 (207 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: .321 — fourth Percentile.

David Peterson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.1 MPH on the 172 breaking pitches put in play against him since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 87.6.

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitless in 16 AB’s against Spencer Schwellenbach when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .207 — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Schwellenbach has walked 4 of 180 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 26% (11/42) against Spencer Schwellenbach this month (5 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — fifth Percentile.

Spencer Schwellenbach has allowed an OBP of just .230 (300 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .301 — 99th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

  
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