The New York Mets (-125) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (+105) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 98-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 80-76 ATS.

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 69.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.

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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 49 of his last 75 away games (+23.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 55 of his last 72 games (+21.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 42 of his last 64 games (+19.35 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 55 games (+18.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 56 away games (+14.00 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 75 of his last 104 games (+25.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 55 games at home (+18.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 81 of his last 142 games (+17.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 30 games (+16.60 Units / 29% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 94 of his last 141 games (+15.65 Units / 6% ROI)

Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 56 away games (+11.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 56 away games (+9.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 78 away games (+8.65 Units / 8% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 78 away games (+4.50 Units / 4% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.05 Units / 42% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 71 games at home (+18.42 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 56 games at home (+18.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games at home (+13.10 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 39 of their last 72 games at home (+8.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.10 Units / 31% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 84-72 against the Run Line (+10.85 Units / 5.57% ROI).

• 98-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.4 Units / 2% ROI
• 82-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.1 Units / 4.7% ROI
• 67-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.05 Units / -13.45% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 80-76 against the Run Line (-5.3 Units / -2.69% ROI).

• 97-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.4 Units / 4.26% ROI
• 77-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -0.75% ROI
• 71-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.5 Units / -7.9% ROI

Jacob deGrom: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jacob deGrom has a strikeout rate of 42% (341 SO in 809 PAs) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 42% (294/697) against Jacob deGrom since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Jacob deGrom has allowed an OBP of just .159 (220 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: .300 — 100th Percentile.

Jacob deGrom has a strikeout rate of 63% (341 SO in 539 PAs) with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.1 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (197 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.2 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (176 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

17 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 4th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 92nd Percentile.

56% of Max Fried’s called strikeouts are inside this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

  
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