The New York Mets (-115) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-105) on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 98-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 81-76 ATS.
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 49 of his last 76 away games (+22.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 42 of his last 58 games (+21.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 57 of his last 75 games (+20.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 43 of his last 67 games (+18.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 57 away games (+13.00 Units / 20% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 78 of his last 107 games (+28.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 56 games at home (+19.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 43 of his last 66 games (+16.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 82 of his last 145 games (+16.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 33 games at home (+13.50 Units / 37% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 119 games (+14.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 57 away games (+9.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 157 games (+9.85 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 157 games (+7.77 Units / 4% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+4.95 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 83 of their last 131 games (+26.97 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 107 games (+25.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games at home (+12.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games at home (+9.20 Units / 34% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 84-73 against the Run Line (+9.85 Units / 5.03% ROI).
- 98-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 1.55% ROI
- 83-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.1 Units / 5.24% ROI
- 67-83 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.1 Units / -13.98% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 81-76 against the Run Line (-4.3 Units / -2.16% ROI).
- 98-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.4 Units / 4.61% ROI
- 78-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.3 Units / -0.17% ROI
- 71-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.55 Units / -8.46% ROI
Maxwell Scherzer: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .219 (630 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .103 (4-for-39) against Max Scherzer — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .233 — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .189 (114-for-603) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 34% (341/987) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Kyle Wright: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (265/482) against Kyle Wright this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.
Kyle Wright has induced opposing hitters to ground into 26 double plays in 140 opportunities (19%) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (145/235) against Kyle Wright this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
89 of Kyle Wright’s 171 strikeouts (52%) have come on curveballs this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 93rd Percentile.