The New York Mets (+125) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-155) on Tuesday, August 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 75-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 61-56 ATS.
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 55.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 35 of his last 55 away games (+14.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 21 away games (+11.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 44 away games (+10.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 37 games at home (+18.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 61 of his last 105 games (+17.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 61 of his last 103 games (+15.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 48 of his last 67 games (+13.40 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 116 games (+20.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 116 games (+16.42 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 116 games (+14.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 78 games (+8.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+5.95 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 91 games (+19.22 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 67 games (+19.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games (+9.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 64-52 against the Run Line (+14.8 Units / 10.52% ROI).
- 75-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.3 Units / 11.45% ROI
- 59-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 2.88% ROI
- 50-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.3 Units / -11.27% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 61-56 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -1.18% ROI).
- 71-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.35 Units / 3.34% ROI
- 59-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 2.24% ROI
- 51-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.8 Units / -10.75% ROI
Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 108 of Taijuan Walker’s 484 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strikeout rate of just 12% (10 SO in 87 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 23% (114/492) against Taijuan Walker on sliders since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 33% — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 60 of Taijuan Walker’s 269 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 32% — third Pe rcentile.
Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (21/55) against Charlie Morton on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Charlie Morton has a strikeout rate of 27% (141 SO in 516 PAs) this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 85th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (456/1,036) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (295/517) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — fourth Percentile.