The New York Mets (-115) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-105) on Monday, September 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Mets are 78-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 71-73 ATS.
Mets vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Paul Blackburn 5-4, 4.66 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Mets vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Mets vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+20.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+13.10 Units / 187% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 49 games (+12.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+11.95 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Home Runs Over in 15 of his last 47 games (+34.15 Units / 73% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+16.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 50 games (+15.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+15.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+14.55 Units / 44% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 84 games (+17.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 95 games (+15.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 85 games (+13.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 87 games (+10.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 away games (+9.30 Units / 26% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 46 games at home (+17.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games (+8.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 33 games (+3.45 Units / 9% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 73-70 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.05% ROI).
- 78-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.3 Units / 2.38% ROI
- 70-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.1 Units / -2.61% ROI
- 67-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -9 Units / -5.87% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 71-73 against the Run Line (-14.5 Units / -7.47% ROI).
- 68-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -15 Units / -8.53% ROI
- 75-65 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.4 Units / 2.17% ROI
- 65-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.9 Units / -11.36% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (62/189) against Paul Blackburn on sliders since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 186 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Paul Blackburn has a strike rate of just 60% (535/894) in two strike counts since last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (152/546) against Paul Blackburn since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 23% (41/175) against Paul Blackburn on breaking pitches in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (30/198) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (172 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 80.7
Chris Bassitt has averaged 70.8 MPH on curveballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 79.7 — first Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an OBP of .346 (684 PA’s) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — sixth Percentile.