Mets-Reds prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, May 11

The New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds will each go for the series win on Thursday afternoon after splitting the first two games of this three-game set. First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Kodai Senga (4-1, 3.38 ERA) will look to continue his strong start for New York, while Derek Law (2-4, 3.00 ERA) will serve as the Reds' opener, likely to be followed by right-hander Ben Lively in his season debut.

The Mets are -195 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, making Cincy a +165 underdog with the over/under set at 10.

Mets

Day to day: SP Max Scherzer (neck)

Out: RP Jimmy Yacabonis (quadriceps), C Tomas Nido (eye), RP Brooks Raley (elbow), RP Edwin Uceta (ankle), SP Carlos Carrasco (elbow), OF Tim Locastro (back), C Omar Narvaez (calf), SP Elieser Hernandez (shoulder), RP Edwin Diaz (knee), RP Sam Coonrod (lat), RP Bryce Montes de Oca (elbow), SP Jose Quintana (ribs), RP Stephen Ridings (shoulder)

Reds

Day to day: SP Nick Lodolo (calf)

Out: RP Reiver Sanmartin (elbow), RP Fernando Cruz (shoulder), RP Fernando Cruz (shoulder), SP Connor Overton (elbow), 1B Joey Votto (shoulder), SP Justin Dunn (shoulder), RP Tony Santillan (back), SP Vladimir Gutierrez (elbow), RP Tejay Antone (forearm)

Kodai Senga vs. Derek Law

Senga is off to a strong start to his MLB career after being a star in Japan. The 30-year-old rookie has allowed two or fewer runs in four of six starts and threw six shutout innings in a victory over the Colorado Rockies last week. He's struggled with his command at times this year, but when he's throwing strikes, his stuff is awfully tough to hit.

After Luis Cessa was demoted from the rotation last week, Cincy will now look to cobble together a bullpen game. Law has been solid in 17 relief appearances so far this season. In his last time out, he threw a scoreless inning in a 7-6 win over the New York Mets on Tuesday. The team will likely call on the recently promoted Ben Lively to follow and cover the bulk of the middle innings. The righty hasn't pitched in the Majors since 2019 but posted a 2.33 ERA in five appearances (four starts) at Triple-A this year.

It's difficult to see this total reaching double digits especially with how well Senga has started through six MLB outings. He will get a matchup with a Reds offense that ranks 26th in slugging percentage (.368), and the Mets are scoring 4.3 runs per game, which is 20th in the league. Even if Cincy's bullpen struggles, Senga should keep the Reds' bats in check enough to hit the under.

Pick: Under 10

The pitching edge goes to the Mets with a solid starter against the Reds bullpen, and New York has the better offense in just about every major statistical category in this matchup. Let's go with the Mets to take this series.

Pick: Mets

  
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