Mets-Nationals prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, May 14

After splitting a rain-induced doubleheader on Sunday, the New York Mets hope to get out of D.C. with a badly-needed series win as they take on the Washington Nationals on Monday afternoon. First pitch from Nationals Park is set for 4:05 p.m. ET. It'll be a battle of lefties on the mound, as David Peterson (1-5, 7.68 ERA) will make another start for the Mets amid myriad rotation injuries while Patrick Corbin (1-5, 4.87) goes for the Nats.

New York is currently a -155 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Washington checks is as +135 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.5.

Mets

Out: SP Carlos Carrasco (elbow), C Tomas Nido (eyes), OF Tim Locastro (back)

Nationals

Out: SP Chad Kuhl (foot), OF Victor Robles (back), OF Corey Dickerson (calf)

David Peterson vs. Patrick Corbin

Big things were expected of Peterson after he pitched to a 3.83 ERA over 19 starts last year, but 2023 has largely been a disaster for the lefty. He's allowed at least four runs in five of his last six outings, as a slider that ranked among baseball's best last season has gotten rocked to the tune of a .714 slugging percentage. That pitch has been Peterson's bread and butter forever – it carried a 48% whiff rate in 2022 – and until he regains the feel for it he doesn't have much else to keep hitters off-balance.

Corbin was basically left for dead after two dismal years in a row, but he's started to show signs of life lately. He allowed just two runs over seven innings against the Chicago Cubs, then backed that up with three runs (two earned) over six frames against the San Francisco Giants last time out. He's never going to regain his former All-Star form – his fastball remains a huge liability, hovering around 90-91 mph – but his slider has been vintage Corbin of late, and he can still get outs as long as he's locating on the corners.

The Mets have fallen short of this number in eight of 11 games as their offense continues to struggle, while the Nats have fallen short in 10 of their last 14. This is an inflated number due to these pitchers' reputations, but Corbin has been OK recently and D.C. just doesn't have the firepower to hit this over on their own.

Pick: Under 9.5

Corbin has actually been the better of these two starters of late, and the Nationals righty-heavy lineup currently ranks sixth in baseball in OPS against left-handed pitching. With plus odds, I like Washington to get to Peterson and get just enough from Corbin to steal a win on getaway day.

Pick: Nationals

  
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