Mel Kiper Jr. released his latest mock draft on Wednesday morning. With two rounds of the playoffs still to go, we still have six teams to get sorted into their draft spots, but for the most part we've got the first round draft slots in place. Kiper has just the first round here, with no trades. It should be a good place to get an early picture of how the draft might start out this off season.
As with any NFL Draft, quarterbacks are the show stopper and will likely be in line to move the board around with a big trade or two. For this draft, Kiper has four quarterbacks going with the first four picks, and then none after that. Those Top 4 are:
The Texans have the No. 2 pick and a team ahead of them who doesn't need a quarterback with Justin Fields in the fold. Maybe they grab another QB in the draft, but not with the first pick. Houston is in the process of hiring a new head coach, who will have some say into this pick, but we know they're going to take a quarterback and Stroud is the consensus No. 1. They could value Bryce Young or really any of these Top 4 QBs right up there with Stroud, but as things are, Stroud looks like the top QB.
The Colts found out quickly that Matt Ryan wasn't going to give them a couple years of starting ability, which now puts them in line for a Top 2 quarterback in the draft. If they are hell bent on grabbing either of the Top 2 guys, they could try to trade up with the Bears to secure whoever they want, but without a trade, it looks like Young would be the most likely No. 2 QB off the board.
Levis is going to have lots of chatter about his abilities, but there is plenty there for teams to hang their hat on. The Seahawks have found a competent QB in Geno Smith, but he's already 32 years old and even if he's the planned starter in 2023, they're going to need to find a quicker successor. Plus, Smith isn't at a level that he can't have competition.
Kiper isn't high on Richardson's passing ability, but loves his raw talent. The Panthers did well with a rushing-centered quarterback in Cam Newton and could be a good spot for Richardson. If he does end up going to Carolina, there's a good chance he wouldn't get a year to learn behind someone like Kiper suggests, but it would also be tough to pass by his talent.
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There is a real chance the Chicago Bears trade out of the No. 1 pick for a quarterback needy team, so Kiper's pick for them of Georgia's DT Jalen Carter might come a few picks later, but he is probably the player the Bears would like to secure with their pick, wherever it comes.
The bulk of the non-QB needy teams will go with defensive and offensive line players in Kiper's opinion, which is likely accurate. The first non-QB offensive player he has is wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba out of Ohio State going to the New York Jets. They need a QB more, but they could also grab Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers, etc… It will be interesting to watch.
The next offensive player is a tight end of all positions. Draftniks love the tight end position this draft season and Michael Mayer could end up a difference maker. Kiper has the Green Bay Packers taking him, which seems like a stretch, but we shall see.
Overall, Kiper has 4 QBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs, and 1 RB going in the first round.