Playoff seeding is on the line when the Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks on Monday, and our Mavericks vs. Warriors player props are based on the best NBA odds.
The Dallas Mavericks (45-29) own the longest current winning streak in the NBA at seven games, and Dallas has climbed to the No. 5 seed in the West, just two games behind the Los Angeles Clippers in 4th but also just a game-and-a-half ahead of the Phoenix Suns and the Play-In Tournament.
The Golden State Warriors (40-34) have won four straight and are the No. 10 seed. They Are trying to hold off the Houston Rockets – two games back – for that final spot in the Play-In Tournament and potentially overtake the Los Angeles Lakers or Sacramento Kings in the Play-In Tournament seeding.
Tuesday's showdown could have major playoff implications, and we should expect star players Steph Curry and Luka Doncic t o be at their best. Dallas leads the season series 2-0, and Golden State desperately needs a win against its Western Conference rival. We've got three player props for this nationally televised matchup, including a Curry prop and a Doncic combo.
Here are our best Mavericks vs. Warriors player prop predictions and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Mavericks vs. Warriors game info & odds
- When: Tuesday, April 2
- Tip-off: 10 p.m. ET
- Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, Calif.
- How to watch: TNT
Favorite: Warriors -1 (odds via DraftKings)
Mavericks vs. Warriors player props
- Luka Doncic Over 53.5 points + rebounds + assists (-104 via FanDuel) ????
- Stephen Curry Over 26.5 points (-110 via DraftKings) ????
- Daniel Gafford Over 2.5 blocks (+195 via FanDuel) ???
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Mavericks vs. Warriors predictions
Doncic has been red-hot all season, but he's been blistering since the All-Star break. On the season, Doncic has averaged 52.9 PRAs, but since the break, he's averaged 53.9 thanks to a near triple-double average and better than 33 points per contest. He's hit the Over in 32 of 65 games this season, but since the break, he's gotten there in 10 of 18.
Doncic posted 57 points + rebounds + assists at Golden State earlier in the season, and he's been great against the Warriors dating back to the 2021-22 campaign. Over his last six against Golden State, Donic has averaged 52.7 PRAs and hit the Over four times. The -104 odds at FanDuel offer an implied probability of 50.9%, but Doncic has hit the Over in 55.5% of games since the break, giving us a discounted price on this prop. Luka is climbing the MVP leaderboard, and every win helps to solidify his case for the award.
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We bet on a Curry bounce-back in his last game out, and we're going back to the well with another point prop for the veteran superstar. Curry dropped 33 points in his last game, hitting the Over on this line in four of his last nine. On the season, Curry has averaged 27.5 points per game at Chase Center, so he'll need to be average against Dallas tonight to hit the Over.
Curry has scored at least 27 points in 35 of 68 games this season, good for 51.5% of games. That mark has been even better at home, as he's hit the over in 20 of 34 games, or 58.8%. The -110 odds offer an implied probability of 52.3%, so we're getting a discount on these odds based on how frequently Curry has hit the Over at home. On the season, Dallas has allowed the 11th-most points to opponents, which presents a favorable matchup. Golden State has a matchup with Houston on Thursday, and the team needs every win it can get ahead of that pivotal matchup. Exp ect Curry to be in top form.
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Gafford is on a roll as a shot-blocker, and he's swatted at least three shots in three of his last four. That includes two straight heading into tonight's matchup with the Warriors. Gafford's season-high in the blocks department came on March 13 when he rejected seven Golden State shots.
Gafford has hit the Over on this prop in just seven of 22 appearances with Dallas, but he's done it in four of his last eight on the road while averaging 2.6 swats. Over the last 15 games, Golden State has allowed the 11th-most blocks to opponents, setting Gafford up nicely to cash this one. The longest odds can be found at FanDuel, where a $10 wager yields a $19.50 profit.
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Mavericks-Warriors player props ma de Tuesday at 9:55 a.m. ET.
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