Oklahoma City hosts Dallas after a dominant showing in Game 1, as we offer our best Mavericks vs. Thunder player props for Game 2 based on the best NBA odds.
The Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) kept their perfect start to the 2024 NBA playoffs alive on Tuesday, blowing out the Dallas Mavericks (50-32) in Game 1 at Paycom Center. Those two meet again in Oklahoma City for Game 2, which tips off Thursday at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Thunder are 5-point favorites to beat the Mavericks, according to our best sports betting sites, which also have Oklahoma City priced as the third-best team by the latest NBA championship odds. Can OKC take a 2-0 series lead, or will Dallas' stars wake up for a pivotal Game 2?
Along with our Cavaliers vs. Celtics player props, here are our best Mavericks vs. Thunder player props and NBA picks (odds via our best&n bsp;NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Mavericks vs. Thunder Game 2 player props
- Luka Doncic Under 3.5 threes (-122 via FanDuel) ????
- Josh Giddey Under 7.5 points (-115 via FanDuel) ???
- Daniel Gafford leading rebounder (+360 via DraftKings) ???
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Mavericks vs. Thunder prop bet predictions for Thursday
Even after Doncic averaged 4.1 threes per game to finish as a finalist by the NBA MVP odds, three of our five best sportsbooks have the Under for this prop juiced as short as -130. That speaks to how bad Doncic has been from deep since he sprained his right knee in Game 3 against the Los Angeles Clippers.
He's accordingly fallen short of this mark in all five games since the injury, combining for just four made 3-pointers in his last four outings. He's gone 2-for-18 from beyond the arc in his last two after a 1-for-8 showing in Game 1, when he was clearly bothered by the injury and the tenacious on-ball defense from Luguentz Dort:
We could fade Doncic's points total (31.5), which he's cleared just once in five games since the injury, but I still trust Doncic to manufacture points in the mid-range if his team really needs it. He just doesn't appear to have the lift needed to even hit multiple threes in a game – let alone four.
Best odds: -122 via FanDuel
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Giddey had one of the worst games of his career against Dallas earlier this season, and he followed that up with just two points in 17 minutes in Game 1.
The versatile guard has been hot from deep recently, but he bricked a three early in the second quarter and was benched for the rest of the first half and all but eight minutes in the second half. Instead, coach Mark Daigneault turned to reserves Aaron Wiggins and Casan Wallace – who each played 22 minutes – to frustrate Dallas' stars on the defensive end, which worked to perfection.
Of the six players to defend Giddey for more than one possession, four were bigs and the other two were Doncic and Kyrie Irving – likely in an effort to conserve energy. The Mavericks clearly don't respect Giddey offensively, and I'm not sure OKC can afford to play him more than 15-20 minutes after his 2-point showing on Tuesday.
FanDuel is the only book offering a prop total on Giddey, with these -115 odds implying a 53.49% hit rate with a $8.70 profit on a $10 wager, per our odds converter.
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel
We targeted rookie Dereck Lively in Game 1 as a potential mismatch for the Mavericks against the Thunder's rail-thin frontcourt. Instead, Gafford delivered with a game-high 11 rebounds in 27 minutes – both his most in a game since April 5.
As a result, Gafford's rebounding prop has been juiced to the Over, which is hard to stomach given Dallas' uncertain big man rotation. That's why I'd rather lean into the volatility and bet these +360 odds, which imply a mere 21.7% chance that Gafford leads all players in rebounds in Game 2 and profits $36 on a $10 bet if he does.
As we highlighted ahead of Game 1, OKC was one of the worst rebounding teams in the regular season with only Holm gren (7.9) and Giddey (6.4) averaging more than 5.5 rebounds. The Thunder managed to win on the glass as a team in Game 1, but Gafford still dominated his matchup while adding five blocks on the other end.
Gafford is a better rebounder than fellow starter P.J. Washington – who hasn't exceeded seven boards in over a month despite steady playing time – and his strong play in Game 1 would seem to give him the nod over Lively for Game 2. It feels like Gafford should be the favorite in this market, so I'll gladly take a shot at these odds.
Best odds: +360 via DraftKings
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Mavericks vs. Thunder Game 2 info & odds
- When: Thursday, May 9
- Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Thunder -5 (-110 via bet365)
Mavericks-Thunder player props made Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. ET
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