The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder meet Tuesday in Game 1 of their second-round series, as we offer our best Mavericks vs. Thunder player props based on the best NBA odds.
There will be no shortage of star power when the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks (50-32) and top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) face off in Game 1 of their second-round series in the 2024 NBA playoffs.
Tuesday's series opener tips off at 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Our best sports betting sites have the Thunder as 3.5-point favorites to beat the Mavericks in a matchup headlined by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic – two of the finalists by the NBA MVP odds.
With those stars at the helm, these teams both rank in the top four by the latest NBA championship odds, though Game 1 could be decided by their supporting casts.
Here are our best Mavericks vs. Thunder player props and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Mavericks vs. Thunder Game 1 player props
- Kyrie Irving Under 24.5 points (+100 via DraftKings) ????
- Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 threes (+102 via FanDuel) ????
- Dereck Lively Over 6.5 rebounds (+105 via DraftKings) ???
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Mavericks vs. Thunder prop bet predictions for Tuesday
There's only so much you can do to shut down Doncic, even with his injury and recent struggles. If Irving gets going at the same time, though? Good luck with that.
That's why I suspect the Thunder will focus extra attention on Irving, who scored 30 in Friday's close-out victory over the Los Angeles Clippers after dropping 40 earlier in the series. He fell below this scoring prop in three of the other four games, though, and faces an elite OKC defense that just held the Pelicans to the worst offensive rating (93.5) by any team in a playoff series in eight years.
Gilgeous-Alexander is a plus-defender with size to make life difficult for Irving, but I wouldn't be surprised if elite stopper Luguentz Dort draws Irving for stretches of Tuesday's game to avoid an eruption from the Mavericks' No. 2 scoring option.
Best odds: +100 via DraftKings
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Dallas' defense deserves its flowers, too, as it's been one of the best units at defending the rim since acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline. It's much worse defending the perimeter, especially after losing versatile 6-10 forward Maxi Kleber (shoulder) for this series and beyond.
That should signal a green light for Holmgren, who hit at least one 3-pointer in each of his first four career playoff games in Round 1 with multiple threes in two of them. He attempted a whopping seven triples in Game 4, his third game of the series with at least six shots from deep.
These +102 odds represent a 49.5% implied probability that Holmgren will hit multiple threes, per our odds converter, with a $10.20 profit on a $10 wager if he does. In this matchup, that feels like solid value.
Best odds: +102 via FanDuel
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While Holmgren should be able to expose the Mavericks' traditional bigs on the offensive end, I'd expect them to return the favor on the glass in one of the defining matchups of this series.
The Thunder owned the NBA's third-worst rebounding rate (45.9%) in the regular season with Holmgren (7.9 RPG) serving as their only big man of note. They allowed a combined 26.8 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards and centers, and they were subsequently outrebounded by 10 in the first round, too.
Lively led the Mavericks in rebounding (6.2 RPG) in the first round and played 24 minutes in each of the final two games of the series, clearing this total in both. His uncertain playing time makes this a three-star bet, but if Dallas leans into its size advantage inside, the rookie should have no trouble hitting this mark.
Best odds: +105 via DraftKings
Ma vericks vs. Thunder Game 1 info & odds
- When: Tuesday, May 7
- Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Paycom Center
- How to watch: TNT
- Favorite: Thunder -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
Mavericks-Thunder player props made Saturday at 5:45 p.m. ET
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