In this article each week I'll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that – as of writing on Wednesday – I'm most likely to enter into the'$1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
- DraftKings
- FanDuel
- BetMGM
- Caesars
- PointsBet
- FOX Bet
- UniBet
- BetRivers
Freedman's Week 4 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 4 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented – along with my projected lines and edges – from the perspective of the home team. (For the London game, the Saints are technically the home team.)
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| CIN | MIA | -4 | -2.5 | 1.5 |
| NO | MIN | 2.5 | 2.25 | -0.25 |
| ATL | CLE | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 |
| DAL | WAS | -3.5 | -2.25 | 1.25 |
| BAL | BUF | 3 | 1.75 | -1.25 |
| HOU | LAC | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| NYG | CHI | -3.5 | -1.5 | 2 |
| DET | SEA | -4.5 | -5.5 | -1 |
| PHI | JAX | -6.5 | -7 | -0.5 |
| IND | TEN | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 |
| PIT | NYJ | -3.5 | -4 | -0.5 |
| CAR | ARI | -1.5 | 1.75 | 3.25 |
| LV | DEN | -2.5 | 0.25 | 2.75 |
| GB | NE | -10 | -10 | 0 |
| TB | KC | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| SF | LAR | -2.5 | 0.25 | 2.75 |
Based on my current projections, I'm willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.
- Bears +3.5 at Giants
- Cardinals +1.5 at Panthers
- Broncos +2.5 at Raiders
- Buccaneers +2 vs. Chiefs
- Rams +2.5 at 49ers
Freedman's Week 4 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium
- TV: FOX
Bears at Giants: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Giants -3.5
- Over/Under: 49.5
- Moneyline: Giants -170, Bears +145
Bears at Giants: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Bears – 48% bets, 54% money
- Over/Under: Over – 21% bets, 55% money
- Moneyline: Bears – 48% bets, 74% money
Bears at Giants: Key Injuries
Bears: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Matthew Adams | OLB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Dane Cruikshank | DB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Jaylon Johnson | CB | Quad | DNP |
| David Montgomery | RB | Ankle/Knee | DNP |
| Ryan Griffin | TE | Achilles | LP |
| Velus Jones Jr. | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Roquan Smith | ILB | Quad | LP |
Bears: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Byron Pringle | WR | IR | Calf |
| Doug Kramer | C | IR | Foot |
| N’Keal Harry | WR | IR | Ankle |
| Dakota Dozier | G | IR | Knee |
| Alex Leatherwood | OT | PUP | Illness |
Bears Injury News
Giants: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Cordale Flott | CB | Calf | DNP |
| Nick McCloud | CB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Kadarius Toney | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Jihad Ward | OLB | Knee | DNP |
| Leonard Williams | DE | Knee | DNP |
| Justin Layne | CB | Concussion | LP |
| Aaron Robinson | CB | Appendix | LP |
Giants: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | IR | Knee |
| Elerson Smith | EDGE | IR | Leg |
| Rodarius Williams | DB | IR | Knee |
| Collin Johnson | WR | IR | Achilles |
| Darrian Beavers | LB | IR | Knee |
| Shane Lemieux | G | IR | Toe |
| Marcus McKethan | G | IR | Knee |
| Matt Peart | T | PUP | Knee |
| Nick Gates | T | PUP | Leg |
Giants Injury News
Bears at Giants: Notable Trends
Bears Trends
- QB Justin Fields: 4-9 ATS (33.5% ROI for faders) overall
- Road Underdogs: 382-327-16 ATS (5.3% ROI) in Weeks 1-4
Giants Trends
- QB Daniel Jones: 8-13 ATS (21.8% ROI for faders) at home
- QB Daniel Jones: 2-6 ATS (43.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
- QB Daniel Jones: 1-4 ATS (43.0% ROI for faders) as home favorite
- Home Favorites: 82-106-8 ATS (9.8% ROI for faders) off a loss as home favorites
Bears at Giants: Team Statistics
Bears Offense vs. Giants Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.032 | 17 | 0.054 | 19 | 2 |
| Total SR | 38.2% | 31 | 46.2% | 24 | -7 |
| Total DVOA | -15.3% | 28 | 16.6% | 28 | 0 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.134 | 28 | 0.037 | 17 | -11 |
| Dropback SR | 32.8% | 31 | 45.9% | 17 | -14 |
| Pass DVOA | -47.4% | 32 | 20.5% | 25 | -7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 18.1% | 32 | 3.5% | 30 | -2 |
| Rush EPA | 0.044 | 6 | 0.079 | 29 | 23 |
| Rush SR | 42.2% | 12 | 46.7% | 26 | 14 |
| Rush DVOA | 12.8% | 6 | 11.5% | 28 | 22 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.79 | 9 | 5.09 | 30 | 21 |
| Yards per Play | 5 | 24 | 5.9 | 24 | 0 |
| Points per Game | 17.3 | 20 | 19.7 | 12 | -8 |
Giants Offense vs. Bears Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.05 | 21 | -0.015 | 13 | -8 |
| Total SR | 40.6% | 26 | 45.9% | 22 | -4 |
| Total DVOA | -7.5% | 20 | -2.9% | 11 | -9 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.098 | 24 | 0 | 11 | -13 |
| Dropback SR | 40.5% | 26 | 43.6% | 12 | -14 |
| Pass DVOA | -8.3% | 25 | -6.9% | 10 | -15 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 13.3% | 31 | 6.6% | 14 | -17 |
| Rush EPA | 0.039 | 7 | -0.031 | 21 | 14 |
| Rush SR | 40.8% | 18 | 48.4% | 29 | 11 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.5% | 11 | 0.6% | 22 | 11 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.31 | 17 | 4.82 | 25 | 8 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 21 | 5.7 | 19 | -2 |
| Points per Game | 18.7 | 18 | 19 | 11 | -7 |
Bears at Giants: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Justin Fields
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | -0.05 | 31 |
| AY/A | 3.5 | 32 |
| QBR | 23 | 31 |
ATS Value vs. Average: -3.0 (No. 33)
Career: Justin Fields
- AY/A: 5.5
- QB Elo per Game: -118.2
2022: Daniel Jones
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.027 | 24 |
| AY/A | 5.8 | 27 |
| QBR | 34 | 27 |
ATS Value vs. Average: -1.1 (No. 28)
Career: Daniel Jones
- AY/A: 6.3
- QB Elo per Game: -35.8
Key Matchup: Bears Rush Offense vs. Giants Rush Defense
No. 1 RB David Montgomery (ankle, knee) didn’t practice on Wednesday, but he’s theoretically day to day …
Bears RB David Montgomery is still considered day-to-day per head coach Matt Eberflus.
— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) September 28, 2022
… so there’s a chance he’ll play in Week 4. And even if he doesn’t I don’t think that will matter given how well No. 2 RB Khalil Herbert has played in Montgomery’s stead. He went off with 20-157-2 rushing last week as an in-game fill-in, and last year he had 78-344-1 rushing in four games while subbing in for Montgomery.
And QB Justin Fields is always a rushing threat with his 27 carries this year.
The Bears are top-12 in all the key rushing efficiency metrics, and the Giants defense is outside the top 20 and might be without DL Leonard Williams (knee) and EDGE Jihad Ward (knee).
I think the Bears will control the ball with their running attack to keep this game close.
Best Line: Bears +3.5 (-109, Bet Rivers)
First Recommended: Bears +3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Bears +1.5
Limit: Bears +3
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 4 pm ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium
- TV: FOX
Cardinals at Panthers: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Panthers -1.5
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Moneyline: Panthers -125, Cardinals +105
Cardinals at Panthers: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Cardinals – 76% bets, 78% money
- Over/Under: Under – 63% bets, 80% money
- Moneyline: Panthers – 10% bets, 25% money
Cardinals at Panthers: Key Injuries
Cardinals: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Kelvin Beachum | OT | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Marquise Brown | WR | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Zach Ertz | TE | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Rodney Hudson | C | Knee | DNP |
| Rashard Lawrence | NT | Hand | DNP |
| Justin Pugh | G | Elbow | DNP |
| Zeke Turner | LB | Ankle | DNP |
| J.J. Watt | DE | Calf | DNP |
| A.J. Green | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Zaven Collins | ILB | Shoulder | LP |
| James Conner | RB | Knee | LP |
| Greg Dortch | WR | Back | LP |
| Rondale Moore | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Matt Prater | K | Right Hip | LP |
Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Tae Daley | DB | IR | Head |
| Joshua Miles | OT | IR | Undisclosed |
| Cody Ford | OL | IR | Ankle |
| Colt McCoy | QB | IR | Calf |
| Antoine Wesley | WR | IR | Groin |
| Charles Washington | DB | IR | Chest |
| Marquis Hayes | G | IR | Knee |
| Antonio Hamilton | DB | PUP | Foot |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | Suspended | Disciplinary |
Cardinals Injury News
Panthers: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | Thigh | DNP |
| Jaycee Horn | CB | Calf | LP |
| Ian Thomas | TE | Ankle | LP |
| Stantley Thomas-Oliver | CB | Achilles | LP |
| Xavier Woods | S | Hamstring | LP |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | WR | Hamstring | LP |
Panthers: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Bravvion Roy | DL | IR | Hamstring |
| Andre Roberts | WR | IR | Knee |
| Julian Stanford | LB | IR | Undisclosed |
| Zane Gonzalez | K | IR | Groin |
| Sam Darnold | QB | IR | Ankle |
| Matt Corral | QB | IR | Foot |
Panthers Injury News
Cardinals at Panthers: Notable Trends
Cardinals Trends
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 18-6-2 ATS (42.4% ROI) on road
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 19-9-2 ATS (30.0% ROI) as underdog
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 14-3-2 ATS (53.4% ROI) as road underdog
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 12-7 ML (79.3% ROI) as road underdog
Panthers Trends
- HC Matt Rhule: 5-13 ATS (40.6% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Matt Rhule: 3-10 ATS (48.5% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Matt Rhule: 1-7 ATS (70.0% ROI for faders) as home favorite
- HC Matt Rhule: 1-7 ML (99.8% ROI for faders) as home favorite
Cardinals at Panthers: Team Statistics
Cardinals Offense vs. Panthers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.004 | 11 | -0.047 | 10 | -1 |
| Total SR | 43.2% | 18 | 40.4% | 7 | -11 |
| Total DVOA | -8.9% | 21 | -0.9% | 14 | -7 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.023 | 20 | 0.021 | 13 | -7 |
| Dropback SR | 40.6% | 25 | 40.6% | 8 | -17 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.1% | 24 | 6.3% | 17 | -7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.1% | 9 | 4.4% | 27 | 18 |
| Rush EPA | 0.073 | 4 | -0.154 | 10 | 6 |
| Rush SR | 50.0% | 2 | 40.0% | 15 | 13 |
| Rush DVOA | -5.8% | 16 | -10.3% | 13 | -3 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.33 | 15 | 4.19 | 13 | -2 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 26 | 5 | 10 | -16 |
| Points per Game | 20.7 | 13 | 19.7 | 12 | -1 |
Panthers Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.05 | 21 | 0.191 | 31 | 10 |
| Total SR | 37.9% | 32 | 51.4% | 31 | -1 |
| Total DVOA | -12.8% | 25 | 22.0% | 31 | 6 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.135 | 30 | 0.366 | 31 | 1 |
| Dropback SR | 32.0% | 32 | 57.4% | 32 | 0 |
| Pass DVOA | -22.9% | 30 | 39.4% | 30 | 0 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 10.1% | 28 | 2.3% | 32 | 4 |
| Rush EPA | 0.082 | 2 | -0.105 | 15 | 13 |
| Rush SR | 47.0% | 3 | 41.2% | 18 | 15 |
| Rush DVOA | 7.3% | 9 | -10.0% | 14 | 5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.98 | 6 | 4.60 | 18 | 12 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 21 | 6.7 | 32 | 11 |
| Points per Game | 20.7 | 13 | 29 | 31 | 18 |
Cardinals at Panthers: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Baker Mayfield
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | -0.057 | 32 |
| AY/A | 7 | 14 |
| QBR | 18.8 | 32 |
ATS Value vs. Average: -2.4 (No. 32)
Career: Baker Mayfield
- AY/A: 7.0
- QB Elo per Game: -38.5
2022: Kyler Murray
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.019 | 26 |
| AY/A | 5.7 | 28 |
| QBR | 49.5 | 14 |
ATS Value vs. Average: 1.8 (No. 8)
Career: Kyler Murray
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 65.0
Key Matchup: QB Kyler Murray vs. Panthers Pass Defense'
Both teams have similar advantages in the running game. The Cardinals offense is No. 2 in rush SR, and the Panthers defense is No. 15 in rush SR. The Panthers offense is No. 2 in rush EPA, and the Cardinals defense is No. 15 in rush EPA.
I think both teams will want to lean on the ground game.
But when the Cardinals choose to pass, QB Kyler Murray will have a massive edge relative to Panthers QB Baker Mayfield and a direct edge against the Panthers defense and secondary (per our FantasyPros unit power rankings).
| Rank | Quarterback | Offense | Opp Defense | Defense Rank | Secondary Rank | QB-Def Edge | QB-Sec Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kyler Murray | ARI | CAR | 19 | 12 | 10 | 3 |
And as bad as we might think the Cardinals offensive line is, it’s no worse than the Panthers defensive line, so I don’t expect Murray to be under a great amount of pressure.
| Rank | Offensive Line | Opp DL | DL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | ARI | CAR | 24 | 0 |
Per usual, Murray will be the difference in this game.
In the offseason market, this line was Cardinals -2. This line has moved too far in not even a month of action.
Best Line: Cardinals +2 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Cardinals +1.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Cardinals -1.75
Limit: Pick’Em
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
- Location: Allegiant Stadium
- TV: CBS
Broncos at Raiders: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Raiders -2.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Raiders -140, Broncos +120
Broncos at Raiders: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Raiders – 68% bets, 85% money
- Over/Under: Under – 84% bets, 96% money
- Moneyline: Raiders – 62% bets, 72% money
Broncos at Raiders: Key Injuries
Broncos: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Tyrie Cleveland | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Jonathon Cooper | LB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Randy Gregory | OLB | Knee | DNP |
| D.J. Jones | NT | Concussion | DNP |
| Darius Phillips | CB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Dalton Risner | G | Ankle | DNP |
| Billy Turner | OT | Knee | DNP |
| Baron Browning | LB | Knee | LP |
| Melvin Gordon | RB | Neck | LP |
| P.J. Locke | DB | Ankle | LP |
| Quinn Meinerz | G | Hamstring | LP |
| Aaron Patrick | LB | Shoulder | LP |
| Mike Purcell | NT | Neck | LP |
| Caden Sterns | SAF | Hip | LP |
| K’Waun Williams | DB | Wrist | LP |
Broncos: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Justin Simmons | DB | IR | Quadriceps |
| Michael Ojemudia | DB | IR | Elbow |
| Christopher Allen | EDGE | IR | Foor |
| Greg Dulcich | TE | IR | Hamstring |
| Damarea Crockett | RB | IR | Knee |
| Tim Patrick | WR | IR | Knee |
| Tom Compton | T | PUP | Back |
Broncos Injury News
Raiders: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Neil Farrell | DE | Shoulder | FP |
| Andre James | C | Concussion | FP |
| Nate Hobbs | CB | Concussion | DNP |
| Hunter Renfrow | WR | Concussion | DNP |
| Foster Moreau | TE | Knee | DNP |
| Tre’von Moehrig | FS | Hip | LP |
| Rock Ya-Sin | CB | Knee | LP |
| Kolton Miller | OT | Ankle | LP |
| Denzel Perryman | MLB | Ankle | LP |
| Bilal Nichols | DT | Shoulder | LP |
Raiders: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| DJ Turner | WR | IR | Ankle |
| Anthony Averett | DB | IR | Thumb |
| Jordan Jenkins | EDGE | IR | Knee |
| Brandon Parker | T | IR | Triceps |
| Micah Kiser | LB | IR | Leg |
| Sincere McCormick | RB | IR | Undisclosed |
Raiders Injury News
Broncos at Raiders: Notable Trends
Broncos Trends
- QB Russell Wilson: 83-71-7 ATS (5.1% ROI) overall
- QB Russell Wilson: 27-13-2 ATS (30.3% ROI) as underdog
- QB Russell Wilson: 22-19-1 ML (34.2% ROI) as underdog
- Divisional Road Underdogs: 130-95-8 ATS (12.6% ROI) in Weeks 1-4
Raiders Trends
- QB Derek Carr: 13-25-1 ATS (26.9% ROI for faders) as favorite
Broncos at Raiders: Team Statistics
Broncos Offense vs. Raiders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.009 | 13 | 0.087 | 25 | 12 |
| Total SR | 40.1% | 29 | 48.3% | 28 | -1 |
| Total DVOA | -11.1% | 22 | 6.6% | 20 | -2 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.115 | 9 | 0.227 | 29 | 20 |
| Dropback SR | 40.5% | 26 | 50.8% | 27 | 1 |
| Pass DVOA | 10.5% | 14 | 17.0% | 23 | 9 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.0% | 24 | 3.2% | 31 | 7 |
| Rush EPA | -0.222 | 27 | -0.133 | 13 | -14 |
| Rush SR | 39.5% | 22 | 44.3% | 24 | 2 |
| Rush DVOA | -18.3% | 21 | -6.5% | 15 | -6 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.77 | 10 | 4.14 | 9 | -1 |
| Yards per Play | 5.2 | 20 | 5.7 | 19 | -1 |
| Points per Game | 14.3 | 31 | 25.7 | 24 | -7 |
Raiders Offense vs. Broncos Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.008 | 10 | -0.142 | 6 | -4 |
| Total SR | 43.8% | 17 | 40.2% | 6 | -11 |
| Total DVOA | -12.5% | 24 | -24.3% | 5 | -19 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.048 | 14 | -0.133 | 6 | -8 |
| Dropback SR | 45.3% | 18 | 39.5% | 3 | -15 |
| Pass DVOA | 3.0% | 20 | -25.9% | 4 | -16 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.4% | 17 | 8.8% | 8 | -9 |
| Rush EPA | -0.098 | 20 | -0.161 | 8 | -12 |
| Rush SR | 39.6% | 21 | 41.8% | 19 | -2 |
| Rush DVOA | -21.5% | 23 | -21.6% | 8 | -15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.08 | 3 | 4.52 | 15 | 12 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 10 | 4.7 | 6 | -4 |
| Points per Game | 21.3 | 10 | 12 | 2 | -8 |
Broncos at Raiders: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Russell Wilson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.076 | 16 |
| AY/A | 7 | 14 |
| QBR | 45.2 | 21 |
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.2 (No. 19)
Career: Russell Wilson
- AY/A: 8.2
- QB Elo per Game: 37.4
2022: Derek Carr
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.085 | 14 |
| AY/A | 6.6 | 20 |
| QBR | 48.8 | 16 |
ATS Value vs. Average: 0.0 (No. 17)
Career: Derek Carr
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 14.4
Key Matchup: QB Russell Wilson vs. Raiders Pass Defense'
The Raiders have no offensive edge in this game, but the Broncos have a big one: QB Russell Wilson.
It’s not that Wilson has been great this year, but the Raiders have been subpar in pass defense, ranking bottom-six in both dropback EPA and SR. Even with the strong EDGE duo of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, they’ve managed a league-low two sacks as a unit.
They let QB Justin Herbert walk all over them in Week 1 (279 yards, three touchdowns, 76.5% completion rate, 10.0 AY/A).
They let QB Kyler Murray come back from a 20-0 halftime deficit while getting minimal offensive support in Week 2.
And they let QB Ryan Tannehill save his job and maybe the Titans’ season in Week 3 (264 yards, one touchdown, 70.4% completion rate, 8.9 AY/A).
And they’re injured. They’re already without No. 2 CB Anthony Averett (thumb, IR), and they might be without No. 3 CB Nate Hobbs (concussion). Even No. 1 CB Rock Ya-Sin (knee) is on the injury report.
And S Tre’von Moehrig (hip) and LB Denzel Perryman (ankle) have both missed the past two games and are uncertain to return this week.
The Raiders defense is exploitable, and I expect Wilson to have his Broncos breakout against it.
This line was a pick’em in the offseason. Maybe the Broncos aren’t as good as the market anticipated they would be months ago — but that’s definitely true for the Raiders too.
Best Line: Broncos +2.5 (+100, Caesars)
First Recommended: Broncos +2 (-109)
Personal Projection: Broncos -0.25
Limit: Broncos +1.5
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 8:20 pm ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium
- TV: NBC
FYI:
Chiefs-Buccaneers game will be played in Minnesapolis if needed due to Hurricane Ian.
If there is a change in venue or the game is moved, all wagers will be cancelled at @BetMGM.
— John Ewing ?? (@johnewing) September 29, 2022
Chiefs at Buccaneers: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Chiefs -2
- Over/Under: 45
- Moneyline: Chiefs -130, Buccaneers +110
Chiefs at Buccaneers: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Chiefs – 70% bets, 88% money
- Over/Under: Under – 64% bets, 89% money
- Moneyline: Chiefs – 84% bets, 88% money
Chiefs at Buccaneers: Key Injuries
Chiefs: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | Shoulder | FP |
| Andrew Wylie | OT | Hip | FP |
| Michael Danna | DE | Calf | DNP |
| Mecole Hardman | WR | Heel | DNP |
| Chris Jones | DT | Not Injury Related | DNP |
| Ronald Jones | RB | lllness | DNP |
| Harrison Butker | K | Left Ankle | LP |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | Abdomen | LP |
Chiefs: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Trent McDuffie | DB | IR | Hamstring |
| Blake Bell | TE | IR | Hip |
| Justyn Ross | WR | IR | Foot |
| Lucas Niang | T | PUP | Knee |
| Willie Gay | LB | Suspended | Disciplinary |
Chiefs Injury News
Buccaneers: Week 4 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Tom Brady | QB | Right finger | FP |
| Akiem Hicks | DE | Foot | DNP |
| Breshad Perriman | WR | Knee/hamstring | DNP |
| Russell Gage | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Chris Godwin | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Logan Hall | DE | Groin | LP |
| Julio Jones | WR | Knee | LP |
| Donovan Smith | OT | Elbow | LP |
Buccaneers: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Josh Wells | OT | IR | Calf |
| Giovani Bernard | RB | IR | Ankle |
| Cam Gill | EDGE | IR | Foot |
| Aaron Stinnie | G | IR | Knee |
| Kenjon Barner | RB | IR | Groin |
| Ryan Jensen | C | IR | Knee |
Buccaneers Injury News
Chiefs at Buccaneers: Notable Trends
Chiefs Trends
- HC Andy Reid: 24-15 ATS (21.3% ROI) in Weeks 1-4 (with Chiefs)
- HC Andy Reid: 45-27-1 ATS (22.4% ROI) on road (with Chiefs)
Buccaneers Trends
- QB Tom Brady: 23-9-2 ATS (38.4% ROI) as underdog
- QB Tom Brady: 20-14 ML (45.0% ROI) as underdog
- QB Tom Brady: 43-16 ATS (43.9% ROI) off a loss
- QB Tom Brady: 48-11 ML (29.6% ROI) off a loss
- QB Tom Brady: 10-0 ATS (96.0% ROI) as underdog off a loss
- QB Tom Brady: 8-2 ML (102.1% ROI) as underdog off a loss
Against the spread, this man is 10-0 as an underdog off a loss.
Good luck this week to the Chiefs. pic.twitter.com/1hGLIaEcHr
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) September 29, 2022
Chiefs at Buccaneers: Team Statistics
Chiefs Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.202 | 2 | -0.275 | 1 | -1 |
| Total SR | 48.9% | 4 | 40.1% | 5 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | 13.5% | 10 | -34.3% | 1 | -9 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.337 | 2 | -0.293 | 1 | -1 |
| Dropback SR | 55.9% | 3 | 39.7% | 5 | 2 |
| Pass DVOA | 41.2% | 7 | -43.1% | 1 | -6 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 2.3% | 1 | 9.4% | 6 | 5 |
| Rush EPA | -0.080 | 15 | -0.235 | 5 | -10 |
| Rush SR | 34.4% | 28 | 41.0% | 17 | -11 |
| Rush DVOA | -31.2% | 29 | -17.4% | 10 | -19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.04 | 23 | 4.53 | 16 | -7 |
| Yards per Play | 6.2 | 4 | 4.5 | 3 | -1 |
| Points per Game | 29.3 | 4 | 9 | 1 | -3 |
Buccaneers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.129 | 30 | -0.042 | 11 | -19 |
| Total SR | 41.0% | 25 | 44.7% | 18 | -7 |
| Total DVOA | -14.8% | 27 | -10.0% | 9 | -18 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.002 | 17 | -0.02 | 10 | -7 |
| Dropback SR | 43.5% | 19 | 45.0% | 15 | -4 |
| Pass DVOA | 4.0% | 18 | 0.6% | 14 | -4 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.6% | 11 | 8.1% | 10 | -1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.335 | 32 | -0.088 | 16 | -16 |
| Rush SR | 37.0% | 25 | 43.9% | 20 | -5 |
| Rush DVOA | -25.1% | 26 | -28.4% | 6 | -20 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.22 | 19 | 3.98 | 6 | -13 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 26 | 4.6 | 5 | -21 |
| Points per Game | 17 | 22 | 21.7 | 17 | -5 |
Chiefs at Buccaneers: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Patrick Mahomes
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.209 | 1 |
| AY/A | 8.9 | 4 |
| QBR | 76.2 | 4 |
ATS Value vs. Average: 4.7 (No. 2)
Career: Patrick Mahomes
- AY/A: 8.7
- QB Elo per Game: 117.6
2022: Tom Brady
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.048 | 20 |
| AY/A | 6.7 | 18 |
| QBR | 47.5 | 17 |
ATS Value vs. Average: 2.6 (No. 6)
Career: Tom Brady
- AY/A: 7.8
- QB Elo per Game: 72.6
Key Matchup: Buccaneers Secondary vs. Chiefs Pass Catchers
TE Travis Kelce (17-230-2 receiving, 24 targets) is still one of the best players in the league, but the new trio of WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore has been unable to replicate or replace the lost production of WRs Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson.
And against the Buccaneers secondary (No. 1 in our unit power rankings) they are at a clear disadvantage.
| Rank | WRs & TEs | Opp Secondary | Secondary Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | KC | TB | 1 | -12 |
With WRs Mike Evans (suspension) and Julio Jones (knee) slated to return this week, the Buccaneers offense should be able to do just enough to make the heroic efforts of their secondary against QB Patrick Mahomes and his pass catchers not in vain.
This line was Buccaneers -2.5 in the offseason. They’ve struggled in Weeks 1-3 — but so have the Chiefs. This line has moved too far.
Best Line: Buccaneers +2.5 (-109, Sugar House)
First Recommended: Buccaneers +3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Pick’Em
Limit: Buccaneers +1.5
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 3, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: Levi’s Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Rams at 49ers: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: 49ers -2.5
- Over/Under: 42
- Moneyline: 49ers -135, Rams +110
Rams at 49ers: Betting Percentages
- Spread: 49ers – 35% bets, 70% money
- Over/Under: Under – 74% bets, 99% money
- Moneyline: 49ers – 20% bets, 75% money
Rams at 49ers: Key Injuries
Rams: Week 4 Injury Report
Rams: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Tremayne Anchrum | G | IR | Leg |
| Troy Hill | DB | IR | Groin |
| Kyren Williams | RB | IR | Ankle |
| Daniel Hardy | LB | IR | Ankle |
| Logan Bruss | G | IR | Knee |
| Van Jefferson | WR | IR | Knee |
| Quentin Lake | S | PUP | Knee |
| Travin Howard | LB | PUP | Groin |
| Brycen Hopkins | TE | Suspended | Disciplinary |
| Bobby Brown | DL | Suspended | Disciplinary |
Rams Injury News
49ers: Week 4 Injury Report
49ers: IR, PUP & Out
| Name | POS | Status | Injury |
| Trey Lance | QB | IR | Leg |
| Jordan Willis | EDGE | IR | Knee |
| Elijah Mitchell | RB | IR | Knee |
| Curtis Robinson | LB | IR | Groin |
| Jimmie Ward | DB | IR | Hamstring |
| Jordan Matthews | TE | IR | Knee |
| Maurice Hurst | DL | IR | Biceps |
| Kalia Davis | DL | PUP | Knee |
| Jason Verrett | DB | PUP | Knee |
49ers Injury News
Rams at 49ers: Notable Trends
Rams Trends
- HC Sean McVay: 15-10-1 ATS (15.7% ROI) in primetime (including postseason)
- HC Sean McVay: 24-18 ATS (12.2% ROI) on road
- HC Sean McVay: 9-7 ATS (10.3% ROI) as underdog
- HC Sean McVay: 8-3 ATS (43.0% ROI) as road underdog
- HC Sean McVay: 18-12-1 ATS (16.6% ROI) in division
49ers Trends
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 8-3 ATS (38.8% ROI) vs. McVay (including postseason)
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 15-22-1 ATS (14.9% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 17-26-1 ATS (21.6% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 7-15-1 ATS (29.7% ROI for faders) as home favorite
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 11-12 ML (50.6% ROI for faders) as home favorite
Rams at 49ers: Team Statistics