In this article each week I'll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that – as of writing on Wednesday – I'm most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
- DraftKings
- FanDuel
- BetMGM
- Caesars
- PointsBet
- FOX Bet
- UniBet
- BetRivers
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 3 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented – along with my projected lines and edges – from the perspective of the home team.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| CLE | PIT | -4.5 | -1 | 3.5 |
| IND | KC | 6.5 | 5.25 | -1.25 |
| NE | BAL | 3 | -0.5 | -3.5 |
| MIA | BUF | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 |
| CHI | HOU | -3 | -3.75 | -0.75 |
| CAR | NO | 3 | 2.25 | -0.75 |
| MIN | DET | -6 | -5 | 1 |
| TEN | LV | 2 | -0.5 | -2.5 |
| NYJ | CIN | 4.5 | 5.75 | 1.25 |
| WAS | PHI | 6.5 | 3.25 | -3.25 |
| LAC | JAX | -7 | -9.5 | -2.5 |
| ARI | LAR | 4 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| SEA | ATL | -2 | -2.75 | -0.75 |
| TB | GB | -2 | -1.25 | 0.75 |
| DEN | SF | 1.5 | -0.5 | -2 |
| NYG | DAL | -2.5 | -1 | 1.5 |
Based on my current projections, I'm willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.
- Steelers +4.5 at Browns
- Patriots +3 vs. Ravens
- Titans +2 vs. Raiders
- Commanders +6.5 vs. Eagles
- Chargers -7 vs. Jaguars
Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
- Kickoff:'Thursday, Sept. 22, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location:'FirstEnergy Stadium
- TV:'Prime Video
Steelers at Browns: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Browns -4.5
- Over/Under: 38.5
- Moneyline: Browns -200, Steelers +165
Steelers at Browns: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Browns – 24% bets, 26% money
- Over/Under: Under – 51% bets, 88% money
- Moneyline: Browns – 15% bets, 22% money
Steelers at Browns: Key Injuries
Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed |
| Devin Bush | ILB | Foot | LP | FP | FP |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | FS | Lower Leg Cramps | NA | NA | LP |
Pittsburgh Steelers: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE T.J. Watt (pectoral, IR): OUT
- S Damontae Kazee (wrist, IR): OUT
- S Karl Joseph (ankle, IR): OUT
- WR Calvin Austin (foot, IR): OUT
Steelers Injury News
Cleveland Browns: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Mon | Tue | Wed |
| Jadeveon Clowney | DE | Ankle | DNP | DNP | DNP |
| Harrison Bryant | TE | Thumb, Thigh | DNP | LP | FP |
| Isaiah Thomas | DE | Hand | FP | FP | FP |
| Joel Bitonio | G | Biceps | DNP | DNP | LP |
| Jack Conklin | OT | Knee | LP | LP | LP |
| Chris Hubbard | OT | Illness | DNP | LP | LP |
Cleveland Browns: IR, PUP & Out
- QB DeShaun Watson (suspension): OUT
- EDGE Chase Winovich (hamstring, IR): OUT
- CB Greedy Williams (hamstring, IR): OUT
- C Nick Harris (knee, IR): OUT
- WR Jakeem Grant (Achilles, IR): OUT
- EDGE Stephen Weatherly (knee, IR): OUT
- TE Jesse James (biceps, IR): OUT
- EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (ankle): OUT
Browns Injury News
Steelers at Browns: Notable Trends
Pittsburgh Steelers Trends
- HC Mike Tomlin:'46-23-3 ATS (29.4% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin:'38-34 ML (34.0% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin:'51-37-3 ATS (13.4% ROI) in division
- HC Mike Tomlin:'63-27-1 ML (16.9% ROI) in division
- HC Mike Tomlin:'20-6-2 ATS (44.9% ROI) as divisional underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin:'16-12 ML (42.2% ROI) as divisional underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin:'4-0 ATS (89.9% ROI) vs. Browns HC Kevin Stefanski
- HC Mike Tomlin:'3-1 ML (62.5% ROI) vs. Browns HC Kevin Stefanski
Cleveland Browns Trends
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 7-15 ATS (31.1% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 1-11 ATS (74.6% ROI for faders) in division
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 0-7 ATS (89.1% ROI for faders) as divisional favorite
Steelers at Browns: Team Statistics
Steelers Offense vs. Browns Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.1 | 24 | 0.142 | 28 | 4 |
| Total SR | 38.7% | 29 | 40.2% | 7 | -22 |
| Total DVOA | -13.6% | 22 | 9.9% | 22 | 0 |
Steelers Offense vs. Browns Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.051 | 23 | 0.019 | 18 | -5 |
| Total SR | 40.2% | 30 | 42.0% | 6 | -24 |
| Total DVOA | -11.0% | 25 | -2.5% | 11 | -14 |
Browns Offense vs. Steelers Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.178 | 5 | -0.062 | 6 | 1 |
| Total SR | 47.2% | 10 | 42.7% | 11 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | 29.0% | 4 | -10.5% | 8 | 4 |
Browns Offense vs. Steelers Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.014 | 18 | 0.006 | 16 | -2 |
| Total SR | 43.7% | 21 | 43.5% | 12 | -9 |
| Total DVOA | 4.2% | 14 | -0.6% | 14 | 0 |
Steelers at Browns: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Mitchell Trubisky
- EPA + CPOE: -0.011 (No. 28)
- AY/A: 5.0 (No. 27)
- QBR: 38.4 (No. 24)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.2 (No. 16)
2021: Mitchell Trubisky
- EPA + CPOE:'N/A
- AY/A:'N/A
- QBR:'N/A
- ATS Value vs. Average:'N/A
Career: Mitchell Trubisky
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -17.2
2022: Jacoby Brissett
- EPA + CPOE: 0.153 (No. 8)
- AY/A: 6.1 (No. 23)
- QBR: 59.3 (No. 12)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.9 (No. 26)
2021: Jacoby Brissett
- EPA + CPOE: 0.025 (No. 31)
- AY/A: 5.3 (No. 31)
- QBR: 48.2 (No. 22, if qualified)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -1.9 (No. 39)
Career: Jacoby Brissett
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -34.7
Key Matchup: Steelers Offensive Line vs. Browns Defensive Line
I know that the Steelers offense is supposedly bad and the Browns defense is presumably good. But based on how they’ve performed so far in 2022 they seem fairly even.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.1 | 24 | 0.142 | 28 | 4 |
| Total DVOA | -13.6% | 22 | 9.9% | 22 | 0 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.117 | 24 | 0.225 | 28 | 4 |
| Pass DVOA | -7.2% | 22 | 15.7% | 24 | 2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.7% | 15 | 7.7% | 16 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.066 | 16 | -0.05 | 16 | 0 |
| Rush DVOA | -14.0% | 20 | -2.6% | 20 | 0 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.88 | 23 | 4.68 | 19 | -4 |
We have the Steelers offensive line at No. 30 in our FantasyPros unit power rankings. It’s not good — but it has been decent enough to allow the offense as a whole to put up league-average numbers, and the Browns defense has been middling to date.
All-Pro EDGE Myles Garrett could have a big day against LT Dan Moore — but maybe he won’t. Moore this year has allowed just one pressure and quarterback hit on 77 pass rush opportunities (per PFF), and Garrett will have little support, given that fellow EDGEs Jadeveon Clowney (ankle), Chase Winovich (hamstring, IR) and Stephen Weatherly (knee, IR) are all out with injuries.
On top of that, Garrett (neck) is dealing with a spine issue of his own.
If the Steelers provide Moore with help against Garrett, they could keep QB Mitchell Trubisky clean in the pocket — and an unpressured Trubisky might just be good enough to cover.
Especially against this guy.
Against the spread, this man is …
+ 7-15 as a favorite
+ 1-11 in division
+ 0-7 as a favorite in division
+ 0-4 against Mike TomlinBut, yeah, let's make the Browns 4.5-point favorites against the Steelers. pic.twitter.com/iUOCnUceak
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) September 21, 2022
This line was +3 in the lookahead market, so +4.5 feels like too much.
Best Line: Steelers +4.5 (-110, BetMGM, PointsBet, Caesars, probably DK and FD)
First Recommended: Steelers +3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Steelers +1
Limit: Steelers +3
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
- Kickoff:'Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location:'Gillette Stadium
- TV:'FOX
Ravens at Patriots: Consensus'Lines
- Spread:'Ravens -3
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Moneyline: Ravens -155, Patriots +135
Ravens at Patriots: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Patriots – 11% bets, 19% money
- Over/Under: Under – 31% bets, 48% money
- Moneyline: Patriots – 78% bets, 97% money
Ravens at Patriots: Key Injuries
Baltimore Ravens: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Calais Campbell | DE | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Devin Duvernay | WR | Concussion | DNP |
| Justin Houston | OLB | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Marlon Humphrey | CB | Groin | DNP |
| Marcus Peters | CB | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | Knee | FP |
| Travis Jones | DT | Knee | FP |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | Right Elbow | LP |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | Groin | LP |
| James Proche | WR | Groin | LP |
| Ronnie Stanley | OT | Ankle | LP |
| Brandon Stephens | CB | Quad | LP |
| Damarion Williams | CB | Ankle | LP |
Baltimore Ravens: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE Steven Means (Achilles, IR): OUT
- CB Kyle Fuller (knee, IR): OUT
- OT Ja’Wuan James (Achilles, IR): OUT
- LB Vince Biegel (Achilles, IR): OUT
- EDGE David Ojabo (Achilles, PUP): OUT
- EDGE Tyus Bowser (Achilles, PUP): OUT
- RB Gus Edwards (knee, PUP): OUT
Ravens Injury News
New England Patriots: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Kyle Dugger | S | Knee | DNP |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Joshuah Bledsoe | SAF | Groin | LP |
| Cody Davis | DB | Calf | LP |
| Davon Godchaux | NT | Back | LP |
| Raekwon McMillan | MLB | Thumb | LP |
| DaMarcus Mitchell | DE | Knee | LP |
| Adrian Phillips | DB | Ribs | LP |
New England Patriots: IR, PUP & Out
- RB Ty Montgomery (ankle, IR): OUT
- WR Tyquan Thornton (shoulder, IR): OUT
- EDGE Ronnie Perkins (undisclosed, IR): OUT
- CB Joejuan Williams (shoulder, IR): OUT
Patriots Injury News
Ravens at Patriots: Notable Trends
Baltimore Ravens Trends
- HC John Harbaugh: 59-48-6 ATS (8.4% ROI) on road
- QB Lamar Jackson: 16-9 ATS (26.5% ROI) on road
New England Patriots Trends
- HC Bill Belichick:'29-24-1 ATS (7.9% ROI) without QB Tom Brady
- HC Bill Belichick: 30-16-2 ATS (26.8% ROI) as underdog
- HC Bill Belichick: 25-23 ML (33.5% ROI) as underdog
- HC Bill Belichick: 5-1-1 ATS (54.1% ROI) vs. Ravens HC John Harbaugh
- HC Bill Belichick: 5-2 ML (49.3% ROI) vs. Ravens HC John Harbaugh
Ravens at Patriots: Team Statistics
Ravens Offense vs. Patriots Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.17 | 6 | -0.015 | 11 | 5 |
| Total SR | 43.8% | 17 | 45.7% | 21 | 4 |
| Total DVOA | 31.9% | 1 | -5.3% | 11 | 10 |
Ravens Offense vs. Patriots Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.009 | 19 | -0.063 | 4 | -15 |
| Total SR | 46.4% | 10 | 42.5% | 7 | -3 |
| Total DVOA | 1.7% | 17 | -12.8% | 4 | -13 |
Patriots Offense vs. Ravens Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.033 | 17 | 0.103 | 26 | 9 |
| Total SR | 47.5% | 9 | 45.2% | 17 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 7.4% | 11 | 9.9% | 21 | 10 |
Patriots Offense vs. Ravens Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.07 | 10 | 0.078 | 27 | 17 |
| Total SR | 48.6% | 4 | 43.2% | 11 | 7 |
| Total DVOA | 10.5% | 9 | 9.3% | 28 | 19 |
Ravens at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Lamar Jackson
- EPA + CPOE: 0.180 (No. 5)
- AY/A: 10.3 (No. 1)
- QBR: 76.5 (No. 4)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 2.3 (No. 6)
2021: Lamar Jackson
- EPA + CPOE: 0.084 (No. 20)
- AY/A: 6.9 (No. 18)
- QBR: 56.8 (No. 17)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.4 (No. 14)
Career: Lamar Jackson
- AY/A: 7.8
- QB Elo per Game: 82.1
2022: Mac Jones'
- EPA + CPOE: 0.058 (No. 14)
- AY/A: 6.4 (No. 19)
- QBR: 32.0 (No. 26)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.1 (No. 17)
2021: Mac Jones
- EPA + CPOE:'0.114 (No. 12)
- AY/A:'7.0 (No. 16)
- QBR: 56.9 (No. 16)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.7 (No. 21)
Career: Mac Jones
- AY/A: 6.9
- QB Elo per Game: -14.6
Key Matchup: Patriots Run Defense vs. Ravens Run Offense
Even though this year the Ravens are “only” No. 11 with a 43.0% rush rate, they are a running team at their core. That’s what happens when you have QB Lamar Jackson (a ground attack cheat code) and OC Greg Roman (a run game coordinator by trade).
In trading away No. 1 WR Marquise Brown this offseason and replacing him in the draft with two tight ends (instead of wide receivers), the Ravens signaled that they want to return to their 2019 run-heavy ways.
But they could struggle to run against the Patriots. No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (knee) is yet to return from last year’s season-ending injury. No. 2 RB Gus Edwards (knee, PUP) is out. Backup RBs Kenyon Drake (17-39-0 rushing) and Mike Davis (7-15-0) have been pedestrian injury fill-ins.
Additionally, starting LT Ronnie Stanley (ankle) is yet to play this year after appearing in just one game last year and six games the year before that. And backup LT Ja’Wuan James (Achilles, IR) is out.
With all these injuries, the Ravens offense has been predictably terrible on the ground this year, and the Patriots defense has been average at worst.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.264 | 29 | -0.046 | 17 | -12 |
| Rush SR | 27.9% | 31 | 48.8% | 27 | -4 |
| Rush DVOA | -43.5% | 32 | -6.3% | 17 | -15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.04 | 31 | 3.73 | 8 | -23 |
| Yards per Play | 7 | 1 | 4.7 | 6 | 5 |
| Points per Game | 31 | 4 | 17 | 8 | 4 |
As a result, the Patriots defense has been a top-five unit in yards per play and points game through two games — just like the Ravens offense.
If the Patriots keep the Ravens in check on the ground, that could force them into a heavy reliance on the passing game, and while the Ravens have had success in the air this year (No. 1 in pass DVOA, 103.8%) it’s never a positive development to become one dimensional against a Belichick defense.
Plus, the Ravens have had fortuitous matchups to open the year, facing the bottom-two defenses in pass DVOA in Weeks 1-2.
- Jets (Week 1): 55.4% (No. 32)
- Dolphins (Week 2): 48.2% (No. 31)
I’m skeptical that the Ravens pass offense is as good as it has recently looked — and if their run offense struggles in Week 3 then they could have an underwhelming performance overall.
In the preseason market, this number was a pick’em. Not that much has changed between then and now.
Best Line: Patriots +3 (+100, Caesars)
First Recommended: Patriot +3 (-108)
Personal Projection: Patriots -0.5
Limit: Patriots +2
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
- Kickoff:'Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Nissan Stadium
- TV:'FOX
Raiders at Titans: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Raiders -2
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Raiders -129, Titans +110
Raiders at Titans: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Raiders – 41% bets, 44% money
- Over/Under: Under – 45% bets, 91% money
- Moneyline: Raiders – 36% bets, 57% money
Raiders at Titans: Key Injuries
Las Vegas Raiders: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Andre James | C | Concussion | DNP |
| Chandler Jones | DE | NIR-rest | DNP |
| Tre’von Moehrig | FS | Hip | DNP |
| Bilal Nichols | DT | Shoulder | DNP |
| Denzel Perryman | MLB | Ankle | DNP |
| Hunter Renfrow | WR | Concussion | DNP |
| Brandon Bolden | RB | Hamstring | LP |
| Jermaine Eluemunor | OT | Hip | LP |
| Neil Farrell | DE | Shoulder | LP |
Las Vegas Raiders: IR, PUP & Out
- CB Anthony Averett (thumb, IR): OUT
- RT Brandon Parker (triceps, IR): OUT
- EDGE Jordan Jenkins (knee, IR): OUT
- LB Micah Kiser (leg, IR): OUT
Raiders Injury News
Tennessee Titans: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Ugo Amadi | SAF | Ankle | DNP |
| Bud Dupree | OLB | Hip | DNP |
| Jamarco Jones | OT | Triceps | DNP |
| Taylor Lewan | OT | Knee | DNP |
| Ola Adeniyi | OLB | Neck | LP |
| Denico Autry | DT | Not Injury Related | LP |
| Treylon Burks | WR | Ankle | LP |
| Kristian Fulton | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| Dontrell Hilliard | RB | Hamstring | LP |
| Joe Jones | LB | Hamstring | LP |
| Kyle Philips | WR | Shoulder | LP |
Tennessee Titans: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE Harold Landry (knee, IR): OUT
- CB Elijah Molden (groin, IR): OUT
- LB Monty Rice (ankle, IR): OUT
- RB Trenton Cannon (knee, IR): OUT
- LT Taylor Lewan (knee): DNP on Wed., feared OUT for year
Titans Injury News
Raiders at Titans: Notable Trends
Las Vegas Raiders Trends
- QB Derek Carr: 13-24-1 ATS (25.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
- QB Derek Carr: 1-7-1 ATS (60.9% ROI for faders) as favorite vs. playoff team
Tennessee Titans Trends
- HC Mike Vrabel: 18-12 ATS (15.3% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Vrabel: 8-4 ATS (27.7% ROI) as home underdog
- HC Mike Vrabel: 5-1-1 ATS (54.2% ROI) off back-to-back losses
Raiders at Titans: Team Statistics
Raiders Offense vs. Titans Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.083 | 22 | 0.141 | 27 | 5 |
| Total SR | 43.9% | 16 | 45.6% | 19 | 3 |
| Total DVOA | -16.0% | 24 | 17.9% | 29 | 5 |
Raiders Offense vs. Titans Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.001 | 20 | -0.018 | 10 | -10 |
| Total SR | 45.2% | 13 | 42.6% | 8 | -5 |
| Total DVOA | -3.4% | 19 | -2.3% | 12 | -7 |
Titans Offense vs. Raiders Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.153 | 31 | 0.065 | 23 | -8 |
| Total SR | 42.5% | 19 | 48.0% | 30 | 11 |
| Total DVOA | -19.2% | 29 | 0.8% | 15 | -14 |
Titans Offense vs. Raiders Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.025 | 15 | 0.061 | 25 | 10 |
| Total SR | 44.7% | 15 | 44.5% | 15 | 0 |
| Total DVOA | -4.2% | 20 | 0.6% | 17 | -3 |
Ravens at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Derek Carr
- EPA + CPOE: 0.038 (No. 20)
- AY/A: 6.5 (No. 17)
- QBR: 40.6 (No. 21)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.3 (No. 19)
2021: Derek Carr
- EPA + CPOE:'0.105 (No. 16)
- AY/A:'7.4 (No. 12)
- QBR:'58.4 (No. 14)
- ATS Value vs. Average:'0.0 (No. 16)
Career: Derek Carr
- AY/A:'7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 14.0
2022: Ryan Tannehill'
- EPA + CPOE: 0.042 (No. 18)
- AY/A: 6.3 (No. 20)
- QBR: 48.3 (No. 17)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.6 (No. 22)
2021: Ryan Tannehill
- EPA + CPOE: 0.113 (No. 13)
- AY/A: 6.6 (No. 20)
- QBR: 61.8 (No. 8)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.1 (No. 15)
Career: Ryan Tannehill
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: -4.6
Key Matchup: Titans Pass Rush vs. Raiders Pass Blocking
Even without EDGE Harold Landry (knee, IR), the Titans defensive line has a marked advantage over the Raiders offensive line in our FantasyPros unit power rankings.
| Rank | Defensive Line | Opp OL | OL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | TEN | LV | 30 | 17 |
Specifically, the Titans this year have exceled at rushing the quarterback, and the Raiders have struggled most in pass protection.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.6% | 25 | 9.5% | 6 | -19 |
If C Andre James (concussion) misses another game, I think the right side of the offensive line will be especially vulnerable. In his absence last week, rookie RG Dylan Parham shifted to center, and undrafted fourth-year backup Lester Cotton got his first NFL start filling in at right guard. Second-Team All-Pro DT Jeffery Simmons (8.5 sacks last year) could wreak havoc against those two.
And on the end of the line is RT Jermaine Eluemunor, a journeyman backup who has played most of his snaps at guard. He will likely be outmatched by EDGEs Denico Autry and Bud Dupree (hip, assuming Dupree plays).
This line was Titans -1.75 in the preseason market. Yeah, the Titans are 0-2 — but so are the Raiders.
Best Line: Titans +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Titans +2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Titans -0.5
Limit: Titans +2
- Kickoff:'Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: FedExField
- TV:'FOX
Eagles at Commanders: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Eagles -6.5
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Moneyline: Eagles -278, Commanders +240
Eagles at Commanders: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Eagles – 55% bets, 58% money
- Over/Under: Under – 51% bets, 81% money
- Moneyline: Eagles – 67% bets, 67% money
Eagles at Commanders: Key Injuries
Philadelphia Eagles: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Quez Watkins | WR | Illness | DNP |
| Avonte Maddox | CB | Back | LP |
| Haason Reddick | OLB | Knee | LP |
Philadelphia Eagles: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE Derek Barnett (knee, IR): OUT
- OT Andre Dillard (arm, IR): OUT
- OL Brett Toth (knee, PUP): OUT
- TE Tyree Jackson (knee, PUP): OUT
Eagles Injury News
Washington Commanders: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Shaka Toney | DE | Illness | DNP |
| Casey Toohill | DE | Concussion | DNP |
| Daniel Wise | DT | Ankle | DNP |
| Saahdiq Charles | OT | Shoulder | LP |
| Cole Holcomb | LB | Quad | LP |
| Trai Turner | G | Quad | LP |
Washington Commanders: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE Chase Young (knee, PUP): OUT
- C Chase Roullier (knee, IR): OUT
- C Tyler Larsen (Achilles, PUP): OUT
- RB Brian Robinson (leg, PUP): OUT
- DT Phidarian Mathis (knee, IR): OUT
Commanders Injury News
Eagles at Commanders: Notable Trends
Philadelphia Eagles Trends
- HC Nick Sirianni: 1-4-1 ATS (44.4% ROI) in division
Washington Commanders Trends
- Divisional Underdogs: 205-146-11 ATS (13.8% ROI) in Weeks 1-4
- Divisional Underdogs: 140-100-6 ATS (13.2% ROI) vs. team with two-game win streak
- Divisional Underdogs: 24-10-2 ATS (36.1% ROI) vs. team with two-game win streak in Weeks 1-4
Eagles at Commanders: Team Statistics
Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.212 | 4 | 0.068 | 24 | 20 |
| Total SR | 50.0% | 4 | 43.0% | 12 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 27.3% | 5 | 16.2% | 28 | 23 |
Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.061 | 12 | 0.08 | 28 | 16 |
| Total SR | 46.4% | 10 | 45.1% | 18 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 8.1% | 11 | 5.8% | 27 | 16 |
Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.069 | 10 | -0.028 | 9 | -1 |
| Total SR | 41.7% | 22 | 45.7% | 21 | -1 |
| Total DVOA | -0.1% | 15 | -9.6% | 9 | -6 |
Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.036 | 21 | 0.009 | 17 | -4 |
| Total SR | 44.8% | 14 | 46.2% | 22 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | -5.3% | 21 | 4.7% | 25 | 4 |
Eagles at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Jalen Hurts
- EPA + CPOE: 0.154 (No. 7)
- AY/A: 8.7 (No. 5)
- QBR: 70.8 (No. 7)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 1.7 (No. 7)
2021: Jalen Hurts
- EPA + CPOE: 0.088 (No. 18)
- AY/A: 7.1 (No. 15)
- QBR: 54.6 (No. 19)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 0.5 (No. 12)
Career: Jalen Hurts
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: 48.0
2022: Carson Wentz
- EPA + CPOE: 0.112 (No. 11)
- AY/A: 7.5 (No. 9)
- QBR: 51.7 (No. 14)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.2 (No. 18)
2021: Carson Wentz
- EPA + CPOE: 0.070 (No. 22)
- AY/A: 7.3 (No. 13)
- QBR: 60.6 (No. 9)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -1.6 (No. 35)
Career: Carson Wentz
- AY/A: 6.9
- QB Elo per Game: -2.2
Key Matchup: Commanders Interior Offensive Line vs. Eagles DTs Fletcher Cox & Javon Hargrave
If QB Carson Wentz is to exorcise his demons in this #RevengeGame against his former team, the interior of his offensive line will need to play well.
C Chase Roullier (knee, IR) is out, as is backup C Tyler Larsen (Achilles, PUP). And missing from last year’s starting unit are LG Ereck Flowers (released) and RG Brandon Scherff (free agency). So in Week 3 the Commanders will have three new year-over-year starters on the interior of their line, and this exact trio has never played together as a unit.
Given the situation, this looks like an excellent setup for DTs Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave.
Even so, I think the Commanders will perform adequately on their interior offensive line. RG Wes Schweitzer will shift to center, and he has made 19 starts in the interior for the Commanders since 2020: He knows the system. Replacing Schweitzer at right guard will be backup Trai Turner — a Pro-Bowler for HC Ron Rivera and OC Scott Turner from their time together with the Panthers. And although LG Andrew Norwell is new to the team, he is another Panthers transplant and was an All-Pro in 2017. He and Turner manned the interior of the Panthers offensive line together for four years (2014-17).
Even with injury issues and new starters, this is not a patchworked interior. It has decent continuity — and Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell could be significant drivers of success for the Commanders.
Without EDGE Derek Barnett (knee, IR), the Eagles defense is just No. 27 in adjusted sack rate (3.7%) through two games. If Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell are competent, they might be able to keep Wentz clean in the pocket.
And despite the offseason additions of DT Jordan Davis (draft), EDGE Haason Reddick (free agency) and LBs Kyzir White (free agency) and Nakobe Dean (draft), the Eagles are still bottom-five in run defense in every key metric.
- Rush EPA: 0.204 (No. 32)
- Rush SR: 50.0% (No. 28)
- Rush DVOA: 23.1% (No. 29)
- Adj. Line Yards: 5.56 (No. 29)
If Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell are able to hold their own against Cox and Hargrave in run blocking, the Commanders could use the rushing game to extend drives, grind down the clock, keep the explosive Eagles offense on the sideline — and keep the game close.
This line was -1 in the preseason and -3 in the lookahead market last Thursday. The -6.5 we see in the market now is an overreaction to the Eagles’ 2-0 start and their 24-7 Week 2 win against the Vikings on Monday Night Football.
Best Line: Commanders +6.5 (-105, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Commanders +6.5 (-105)
Personal Projection: Commanders +3.25
Limit: Commanders +5.5
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium
- TV: CBS
Jaguars at Chargers: Consensus'Lines
- Spread: Chargers -7
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Moneyline: Chargers -315, Jaguars +265
Jaguars at Chargers: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Jaguars – 48% bets, 94% money
- Over/Under: Under – 46% bets, 87% money
- Moneyline: Jaguars – 6% bets, 36% money
Jaguars at Chargers: Key Injuries
Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 3 Injury Report
No injuries.
Jacksonville Jaguars: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE Jordan Smith (knee, IR): OUT
Jaguars Injury News
Los Angeles Chargers: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| J.C. Jackson | DB | Ankle | DNP |
| Corey Linsley | C | Knee | DNP |
| Keenan Allen | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Justin Herbert | QB | Ribs | LP |
| Donald Parham | TE | Hamstring | LP |
| Trey Pipkins | OT | Foot | LP |
Los Angeles Chargers: IR, PUP & Out
- DT Forrest Merrill (undisclosed, IR): OUT
Chargers Injury News
Jaguars at Chargers: Notable Trends
Jacksonville Jaguars Trends
- HC Doug Pederson: 15-25 ATS (21.4% ROI for faders) on road
- East Coast Teams: 116-94-8 ATS (6.7% ROI) on West Coast for afternoon games
Los Angeles Chargers Trends
- Home Favorites: 24-15-1 ATS (19.6% ROI) after a Thursday Night Football road loss
Jaguars at Chargers: Team Statistics
Jaguars Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.09 | 9 | -0.015 | 11 | 2 |
| Total SR | 46.0% | 12 | 44.1% | 14 | 2 |
| Total DVOA | 18.6% | 9 | -14.3% | 7 | -2 |
Jaguars Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.079 | 28 | 0.044 | 24 | -4 |
| Total SR | 44.0% | 19 | 46.8% | 27 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | -15.1% | 27 | 4.8% | 26 | -1 |
Chargers Offense vs. Jaguars Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.045 | 11 | -0.11 | 4 | -7 |
| Total SR | 47.8% | 6 | 36.9% | 2 | -4 |
| Total DVOA | 10.3% | 10 | -30.6% | 3 | -7 |