In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that – as of writing – I'm most likely to enter into the'$1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the'BettingPros App'and'BettingPros Discord.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-6-1 (+1.4 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 2-3
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 98-83-2 (+6.9 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 39-31
Freedman's NFL Week 16 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 16 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page'on Wednesday and are presented – along with my projected lines and edges – from the perspective of the home team.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| NYJ | JAX | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| BAL | ATL | -7.5 | -7.75 | -0.25 |
| CHI | BUF | 8.5 | 10 | 1.5 |
| CAR | DET | 2.5 | 4 | 1.5 |
| CLE | NO | -2.5 | -2.75 | -0.25 |
| NE | CIN | 3.5 | 3.25 | -0.25 |
| MIN | NYG | -3.5 | -5.25 | -1.75 |
| KC | SEA | -9.5 | -11.75 | -2.25 |
| TEN | HOU | -5 | -6 | -1 |
| SF | WAS | -7 | -7.5 | -0.5 |
| DAL | PHI | -4.5 | -4.5 | 0 |
| PIT | LV | -3 | -2.25 | 0.75 |
| MIA | GB | -4 | -5.5 | -1.5 |
| LAR | DEN | 2.5 | 1.75 | -0.75 |
| ARI | TB | 6.5 | 5.25 | -1.25 |
| IND | LAC | 4 | 2.75 | -1.25 |
Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I'm willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.
- Lions -2.5 at Panthers
- Vikings -3.5 vs. Giants
- Dolphins -4 vs. Packers
Freedman's NFL Week 16 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the three games with spread bets I like right now.
- Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 24, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium
- TV: FOX
Lions at Panthers: Consensus'Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Lions -2.5
- Betting Percentages: Lions – 72% bets, 81% money
Lions at Panthers: 2022 ATS Records
- Lions ATS: 10-4 (37.6% ROI)
- Panthers ATS: 7-7 (-3.9% ROI)
Detroit Lions: Notable Trends
- HC Dan Campbell: 21-10 ATS (29.8% ROI) for career
- 2022 Lions: 7-1 ATS (68.2% ROI) since No. 1 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown returned from injury in Week 8
Lions at Panthers: Team Statistics
Lions Offense vs. Panthers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.053 | 9 | 0.004 | 12 | 3 |
| Total SR | 45.2% | 15 | 44.4% | 15 | 0 |
| Total DVOA | 10.7% | 6 | 4.4% | 20 | 14 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.152 | 5 | 0.046 | 14 | 9 |
| Dropback SR | 48.5% | 8 | 45.4% | 12 | 4 |
| Pass DVOA | 25.1% | 8 | 10.6% | 21 | 13 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 3.7% | 2 | 5.7% | 27 | 25 |
| Rush EPA | -0.085 | 22 | -0.055 | 18 | -4 |
| Rush SR | 40.6% | 19 | 43.0% | 22 | 3 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.5% | 12 | -2.5% | 21 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.69 | 5 | 4.29 | 12 | 7 |
| Yards per Play | 5.8 | 6 | 5.3 | 12 | 6 |
| Points per Game | 26.4 | 5 | 22.4 | 15 | 10 |
Panthers Offense vs. Lions Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.062 | 27 | 0.096 | 31 | 4 |
| Total SR | 39.1% | 31 | 47.3% | 29 | -2 |
| Total DVOA | -16.0% | 29 | 5.2% | 23 | -6 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.108 | 31 | 0.158 | 31 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 37.1% | 32 | 49.8% | 29 | -3 |
| Pass DVOA | -16.6% | 30 | 11.0% | 22 | -8 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.2% | 24 | 6.3% | 25 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.005 | 9 | -0.010 | 25 | 16 |
| Rush SR | 41.5% | 15 | 43.0% | 22 | 7 |
| Rush DVOA | -6.1% | 20 | -3.3% | 19 | -1 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.61 | 9 | 4.32 | 16 | 7 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 23 | 6.2 | 32 | 9 |
| Points per Game | 19.7 | 24 | 26 | 31 | 7 |
Lions at Panthers: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Jared Goff
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.104 | 10 |
| AY/A | 7.8 | 7 |
| QBR | 62.5 | 6 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.9 | 7 |
Career: Jared Goff
- AY/A: 7.3
- QB Elo per Game: 8.6
2022: Sam Darnold
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.8 | 37 |
Career: Sam Darnold
- AY/A: 5.9
- QB Elo per Game: -75.8
Key Matchup: Lions Offensive Line vs. Panthers Defensive Line
I have the Lions offensive line at No. 1 in my personal unit power rankings, and the Panthers defensive line at No. 21.
The Lions offense is No. 2 in adjusted sack rate (3.7%); the Panthers defense, No. 27 (5.7%).
The Lions have back-to-back road games, and QB Jared Goff doesn’t have the benefit of playing in a dome — but he was also outdoors in cold weather last week, when he had an effective 7.2 AY/A against the tough Jets pass defense, and the forecast weather in Carolina this weekend (clear, 30 degrees Fahrenheit, six-mph wind) is hardly enough to cause concern.
The Panthers are without No. 1 CB Donte Jackson (Achilles, IR), and I expect the Lions to attack through the air. When they do, I expect the Lions offensive line to give Goff ample protection, and that will be the difference in this game.
Best Line: Lions -2.5 (-110, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Lions -2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Lions -4
- Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 24, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: U.S. Bank Stadium
- TV: FOX
Giants at Vikings: Consensus'Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Vikings -3.5
- Betting Percentages: Vikings – 67% bets, 67% money
Giants at Vikings: 2022 ATS Records
- Giants ATS: 10-4 (37.4% ROI)
- Vikings ATS: 6-7-1 (-9.9% ROI)
Giants at Vikings: Team Statistics
Giants Offense vs. Vikings Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.03 | 12 | 0.01 | 13 | 1 |
| Total SR | 44.3% | 19 | 45.0% | 20 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | 5.0% | 14 | 4.3% | 19 | 5 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.067 | 13 | 0.078 | 19 | 6 |
| Dropback SR | 47.1% | 13 | 47.0% | 21 | 8 |
| Pass DVOA | 19.8% | 10 | 13.3% | 27 | 17 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.4% | 28 | 6.8% | 21 | -7 |
| Rush EPA | -0.023 | 10 | -0.107 | 7 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 40.2% | 21 | 41.8% | 17 | -4 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.6% | 10 | -8.9% | 15 | 5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.13 | 26 | 4.21 | 11 | -15 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 23 | 5.9 | 29 | 6 |
| Points per Game | 20.5 | 20 | 24.9 | 28 | 8 |
Vikings Offense vs. Giants Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.005 | 18 | 0.068 | 29 | 11 |
| Total SR | 45.1% | 16 | 44.8% | 19 | 3 |
| Total DVOA | -2.9% | 20 | 11.4% | 29 | 9 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.07 | 12 | 0.084 | 20 | 8 |
| Dropback SR | 49.0% | 7 | 45.5% | 14 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 8.1% | 17 | 12.5% | 24 | 7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.6% | 12 | 6.5% | 23 | 11 |
| Rush EPA | -0.130 | 28 | 0.045 | 30 | 2 |
| Rush SR | 37.1% | 29 | 43.7% | 25 | -4 |
| Rush DVOA | -10.3% | 22 | 10.1% | 31 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.19 | 23 | 4.94 | 29 | 6 |
| Yards per Play | 5.4 | 15 | 5.8 | 26 | 11 |
| Points per Game | 25.1 | 8 | 22.3 | 14 | 6 |
Giants at Vikings: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Daniel Jones
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.088 | 13 |
| AY/A | 6.8 | 21 |
| QBR | 57.1 | 12 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.6 | 18 |
Career: Daniel Jones
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -20.1
2022: Kirk Cousins
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.084 | 14 |
| AY/A | 7 | 12 |
| QBR | 51.6 | 19 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.0 | 16 |
Career: Kirk Cousins
- AY/A: 7.7
- QB Elo per Game: 39.2
Key Matchup: WR Justin Jefferson & TE T.J. Hockenson vs. Giants Pass Defense
Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3 of his 2020 rookie campaign for the Vikings, WR Justin Jefferson has averaged 101.5 yards on 9.9 targets per game with an elite mark of 10.3 yards per target.
He’s No. 1 among all NFL wide receivers with 4,639 yards receiving in his first three seasons, and he’s No. 1 in the league this year with 111 receptions overall and 64, 26, 14 and six receptions of 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-plus yards (per our Advanced WR Stats Report).
The Giants have been without No. 1 CB Adoree' Jackson (knee) since Week 11, and he didn’t practice on Tuesday. I’m highly doubtful he plays, and without him the Giants don’t have a corner who can hang with Jefferson.
Similarly, the Giants are without S Xavier McKinney (hand, IR) — and they’re No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (35.8%).
Since joining the Vikings in Week 9, TE T.J. Hockenson is No. 2 on the team in targets (57), receptions (39) and yards receiving (335).