In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that – as of writing – I'm most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the'BettingPros App'and'BettingPros Discord.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 7-7 (-0.72 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 2-3
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 84-70-2 (+7.18 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 30-25
Freedman's Week 13 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 13 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented – along with my projected lines and edges – from the perspective of the home team.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| NE | BUF | 3.5 | 4.25 | 0.75 |
| ATL | PIT | 1 | -1 | -2 |
| BAL | DEN | -8 | -8.5 | -0.5 |
| HOU | CLE | 7 | 8.25 | 1.25 |
| DET | JAX | 1 | -0.5 | -1.5 |
| CHI | GB | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0 |
| NYG | WAS | 2.5 | 0 | -2.5 |
| MIN | NYJ | -3 | -4.5 | -1.5 |
| PHI | TEN | -5.5 | -6.25 | -0.75 |
| LAR | SEA | 7.5 | 6.5 | -1 |
| SF | MIA | -4 | -4 | 0 |
| CIN | KC | 2.5 | 3 | 0.5 |
| LV | LAC | 1.5 | -1 | -2.5 |
| DAL | IND | -11 | -9.75 | 1.25 |
| TB | NO | -3.5 | -4 | -0.5 |
Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I'm willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.
- Browns -7 at Texans
- Giants +2.5 vs. Commanders
- Raiders +1.5 vs. Chargers
Freedman's Week 13 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the three games with spread bets I like right now.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: NRG Stadium
- TV: CBS
Browns at Texans: Consensus'Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Browns -7
- Betting Percentages: Browns – 78% bets, 85% money
Browns at Texans: 2022 ATS Records
- Browns ATS: 5-5-1 (-4.4% ROI)
- Texans ATS: 5-6 (-13.8% ROI)
Houston Texans: Notable Trends
- HC Lovie Smith: 41-51-1 ATS (-14.0% ROI) at home in NFL
- HC Lovie Smith: 13-17 ATS (-16.2% ROI) at home in college football
Browns at Texans: Team Statistics
Browns Offense vs. Texans Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.066 | 6 | 0.052 | 23 | 17 |
| Total SR | 45.8% | 12 | 45.4% | 22 | 10 |
| Total DVOA | 15.8% | 4 | 9.6% | 27 | 23 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.093 | 10 | 0.12 | 26 | 16 |
| Dropback SR | 46.3% | 18 | 47.0% | 21 | 3 |
| Pass DVOA | 26.8% | 8 | 12.7% | 24 | 16 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.2% | 12 | 7.1% | 19 | 7 |
| Rush EPA | 0.028 | 3 | -0.025 | 25 | 22 |
| Rush SR | 45.3% | 4 | 43.7% | 26 | 22 |
| Rush DVOA | 9.9% | 3 | 6.4% | 30 | 27 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.45 | 14 | 4.93 | 30 | 16 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 11 | 5.7 | 20 | 9 |
| Points per Game | 23.9 | 11 | 23.6 | 22 | 11 |
Texans Offense vs. Browns Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.141 | 32 | 0.107 | 31 | -1 |
| Total SR | 38.5% | 31 | 46.0% | 25 | -6 |
| Total DVOA | -28.8% | 32 | 11.3% | 29 | -3 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.177 | 32 | 0.103 | 22 | -10 |
| Dropback SR | 37.9% | 31 | 46.8% | 20 | -11 |
| Pass DVOA | -29.8% | 32 | 12.4% | 22 | -10 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.0% | 26 | 7.6% | 15 | -11 |
| Rush EPA | -0.070 | 18 | 0.115 | 32 | 14 |
| Rush SR | 39.8% | 21 | 44.8% | 27 | 6 |
| Rush DVOA | -17.4% | 28 | 10.1% | 31 | 3 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.09 | 27 | 4.98 | 31 | 4 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 30 | 5.7 | 20 | -10 |
| Points per Game | 15.8 | 30 | 26 | 30 | 0 |
Browns at Texans: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Deshaun Watson
This is Watson’s first game of the 2022 season and first game in general since the end of the 2020 season.
Career: Deshaun Watson
- AY/A: 8.6
- QB Elo per Game: 62.9
2022: Kyle Allen
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2 | 39 |
Career: Kyle Allen
- AY/A: 6.3
- QB Elo per Game: -67.3
Key Takeaway: QB Deshaun Watson Returns to Action — and to Houston
Brissett has had the best season of his career as the fill-in starter. He has been an above-average quarterback through Week 12.
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.105 | 10 |
| AY/A | 7 | 14 |
| QBR | 61.4 | 7 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.3 | 19 |
But Watson is unquestionably better. He might be rusty in his first game since Jan. 3, 2021 — especially given that he’s on a new team with a new head coach and new teammates in a new offensive system — but he’s still an upgrade on Brissett.
In his 2020 campaign, he was No. 1 in the league with 4,823 yards passing and No. 2 with a 9.5 AY/A.
In his absence, the Browns have had a top-12 offense — maybe even a top-six offense.
- EPA per Play: 0.066 (No. 6)
- Total DVOA: 15.8% (No. 4)
It’s unlikely that the offense will be worse with Watson — and it could be significantly better.
As for the Texans, they are the worst team in the league. In theory, this is their Super Bowl. They could have a larger home-field advantage than usual: I imagine that the fans will be particularly hostile to Watson given everything that has transpired since he last played for the Texans. For the team more than for Watson, this is the ultimate #RevengeGame.
But I doubt that actually matters.
Even as a backup, QB Kyle Allen is a subpar player — and now he’s the starter. The offense is lifeless, and the defense could be without No. 1 CB Derek Stingley (hamstring), who has missed the past two weeks.
Unfortunately for Houston, this matchup points to a big win for Cleveland.
Best Line: Browns -7 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Browns -5.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Browns -8.25
- Kickoff:'Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location:'MetLife Stadium
- TV: FOX
Commanders at Giants: Consensus'Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Giants +2.5
- Betting Percentages: Commanders – 33% bets, 67% money
Commanders at Giants: 2022 ATS Records
- Commanders ATS:'7-4-1 (19.5% ROI)
- Giants ATS:'8-3 (40.2% ROI)
New York Giants: Notable Trends
- QB Daniel Jones:'23-14 ATS (19.8% ROI) as underdog
- QB Daniel Jones:'10-5 ATS (28.3% ROI) in division
- QB Daniel Jones:'8-3 ATS (39.8% ROI) as underdog in division
Commanders at Giants: Team Statistics
Commanders Offense vs. Giants Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.053 | 27 | 0.056 | 25 | -2 |
| Total SR | 41.6% | 26 | 44.4% | 18 | -8 |
| Total DVOA | -12.1% | 26 | 10.3% | 28 | 2 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.049 | 27 | 0.103 | 22 | -5 |
| Dropback SR | 42.6% | 28 | 46.3% | 15 | -13 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.8% | 26 | 15.0% | 28 | 2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.9% | 20 | 5.5% | 26 | 6 |
| Rush EPA | -0.059 | 15 | -0.014 | 26 | 11 |
| Rush SR | 40.3% | 17 | 41.4% | 17 | 0 |
| Rush DVOA | -13.1% | 25 | 4.2% | 27 | 2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.23 | 21 | 4.74 | 26 | 5 |
| Yards per Play | 4.9 | 27 | 5.8 | 26 | -1 |
| Points per Game | 19.4 | 24 | 21.1 | 14 | -10 |
Giants Offense vs. Commanders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.047 | 11 | -0.048 | 7 | -4 |
| Total SR | 43.8% | 18 | 40.6% | 4 | -14 |
| Total DVOA | 3.1% | 16 | -5.9% | 11 | -5 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.088 | 12 | -0.005 | 9 | -3 |
| Dropback SR | 46.6% | 17 | 42.5% | 3 | -14 |
| Pass DVOA | 17.8% | 12 | 3.2% | 14 | 2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.3% | 30 | 7.6% | 14 | -16 |
| Rush EPA | -0.010 | 8 | -0.119 | 5 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 40.0% | 19 | 37.6% | 5 | -14 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.7% | 11 | -18.4% | 4 | -7 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.15 | 23 | 4.08 | 9 | -14 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 24 | 5.3 | 11 | -13 |
| Points per Game | 20.5 | 22 | 19.7 | 10 | -12 |
Commanders at Giants: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Taylor Heinicke
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.049 | 27 |
| AY/A | 6.3 | 26 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.9 | 38 |
Career: Taylor Heinicke
- AY/A: 6.2
- QB Elo per Game: -38.8
2022: Daniel Jones
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.097 | 12 |
| AY/A | 6.9 | 17 |
| QBR | 58.1 | 12 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.1 | 20 |
Career: Daniel Jones
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -23.8
Key Takeaway: Commanders Defense Isn’t Much Better Than Giants Offense
I think the market is overweighting the strength of the Commanders defense. It’s fine. It’s good.
But it’s not great — and defenses that aren’t either really great or really bad are all on a continuum.
The Commanders have a defensive edge against the Giants offense, but it’s not a massive edge.
EPA Per Play
- Commanders Defense: -0.048 (No. 7)
- Giants Offense: 0.047 (No. 11)
Total DVOA
- Commanders Defense: -5.9% (No. 11)
- Giants Offense: 3.1% (No. 16)
There’s not a wide gap in quality between these two units.
Even when we look at the matchups for the passing and running games, no large edges appear.
Dropback EPA Per Play
- Commanders Defense: -0.005 (No. 9)
- Giants Offense: 0.088 (No. 12)
Rush EPA Per Play
- Commanders Defense: -0.119 (No. 5)
- Giants Offense: -0.010 (No. 8)
Again, the Commanders defense has a small edge, but that’s not enough to explain the spread.
Now think about where the Giants have an edge.
The Giants are at home. They have three extra days of rest because they played on Thanksgiving. They could be healthier, given that RT Evan Neal (knee), C Jon Feliciano (neck), TE Daniel Bellinger (eye) and CB Fabian Moreau (oblique) — all of whom missed last week — were able to open this week with a practice.
As a strategist and decision maker, HC Brian Daboll is probably better than HC Ron Rivera. QB Daniel Jones is unquestionably better than QB Taylor Heinicke. And Jones has historically outperformed market expectations as an underdog — especially in division.
If you give me a divisional matchup between two teams roughly in the same tier, but I can bet on the team with the better coach and quarterback at home as an underdog, I’ll do it almost every time.
Best Line: Giants +2.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Giants +2 (-110)
Personal Projection: Giants Pick’Em