In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that – as of writing on Wednesday – I'm most likely to enter into the'$1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the'BettingPros App'and'BettingPros Discord.
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-9 (-1.86 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 69-58-2 (+5.35 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 25-20
Freedman's Week 11 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 11 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented – along with my projected lines and edges – from the perspective of the home team. (For the Mexico game, the Cardinals are technically the home team.)
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| GB | TEN | -3 | -3.75 | -0.75 |
| BAL | CAR | -13 | -13.5 | -0.5 |
| ATL | CHI | -3.5 | -0.75 | 2.75 |
| BUF | CLE | -8 | -10.25 | -2.25 |
| NE | NYJ | -3 | -4 | -1 |
| HOU | WAS | 3.5 | 2.25 | -1.25 |
| IND | PHI | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| NYG | DET | -3 | -1.25 | 1.75 |
| NO | LAR | -4 | -3.5 | 0.5 |
| DEN | LV | -2.5 | -1.25 | 1.25 |
| MIN | DAL | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| PIT | CIN | 4 | 5.5 | 1.5 |
| LAC | KC | 6 | 7.5 | 1.5 |
| ARI | SF | 8 | 6.75 | -1.25 |
Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I'm willing to bet on four teams at their consensus lines.
- Bears +3.5 at Falcons
- Patriots -3 vs. Jets
- Lions +3 at Giants
- Bengals -4 at Steelers
Freedman's Week 10 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.
- Kickoff:'Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location:'Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- TV:'FOX
Bears at Falcons: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Falcons -3.5
- Betting Percentages: Bears – 43% bets, 76% money
Bears at Falcons: 2022 ATS Records
- Bears ATS: 4-6 (-23.9% ROI)
- Falcons ATS: 6-4 (14.7% ROI)
Bears at Falcons: Notable Trend
- HC Arthur Smith:'3-9 ATS (43.0% ROI for faders) at home
Bears at Falcons: Team Statistics
Bears Offense vs. Falcons Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.024 | 13 | 0.083 | 28 | 15 |
| Total SR | 42.6% | 20 | 49.4% | 32 | 12 |
| Total DVOA | -4.9% | 20 | 12.5% | 30 | 10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.015 | 18 | 0.123 | 27 | 9 |
| Dropback SR | 43.2% | 27 | 51.6% | 30 | 3 |
| Pass DVOA | -5.3% | 26 | 20.5% | 29 | 3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 13.8% | 32 | 4.4% | 31 | -1 |
| Rush EPA | 0.034 | 4 | 0.020 | 26 | 22 |
| Rush SR | 42.0% | 16 | 46.1% | 28 | 12 |
| Rush DVOA | 2.6% | 9 | 1.7% | 25 | 16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.56 | 14 | 4.87 | 28 | 14 |
| Yards per Play | 5.5 | 13 | 6 | 31 | 18 |
| Points per Game | 21.7 | 20 | 25 | 27 | 7 |
Falcons Offense vs. Bears Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.024 | 13 | 0.098 | 29 | 16 |
| Total SR | 46.3% | 10 | 47.5% | 28 | 18 |
| Total DVOA | 5.8% | 11 | 12.0% | 29 | 18 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.053 | 16 | 0.205 | 30 | 14 |
| Dropback SR | 48.5% | 9 | 51.1% | 28 | 19 |
| Pass DVOA | 12.9% | 14 | 21.4% | 30 | 16 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 10.2% | 30 | 5.8% | 24 | -6 |
| Rush EPA | -0.004 | 8 | -0.028 | 22 | 14 |
| Rush SR | 44.3% | 8 | 43.4% | 22 | 14 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.5% | 8 | 2.1% | 26 | 18 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.79 | 3 | 4.52 | 19 | 16 |
| Yards per Play | 5.4 | 16 | 5.8 | 23 | 7 |
| Points per Game | 23.2 | 12 | 24.7 | 25 | 13 |
Bears at Falcons: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Justin Fields
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.063 | 20 |
| AY/A | 6.8 | 18 |
| QBR | 57.1 | 11 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.8 | 14 |
Career: Justin Fields
- AY/A: 6.2
- QB Elo per Game: -47.8
2022: Marcus Mariota
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.086 | 13 |
| AY/A | 7.2 | 10 |
| QBR | 59.2 | 9 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.9 | 27 |
Career: Marcus Mariota
- AY/A:'7.2
- QB Elo per Game: -14.3
Key Matchup: Bears QB Justin Fields vs. Falcons Linebackers & Cornerbacks
The Falcons are yet to face a true dual-threat quarterback this year, but that’s what they get this week in Fields, who is developing into a Lamar Jackson-esque force.
Fantasy football isn’t the same as sports betting, but as a frame of reference: Over the past month, Fields is No. 1 at the position in expected fantasy points (83.4), actual fantasy points (133.5) and fantasy point overperformance (50.1).
Ranking No. 1 among all quarterbacks with 104-749-6 rushing (per our'Fantasy Football Stats Report), Fields has a massive edge against LBs Rashaan Evans and Mykal Walker, off-ball thumpers who lack the speed to catch Fields if he breaks out of the pocket.
The Bears have a top-10 rush offense — thanks primarily to Fields — and the Falcons are bottom-10 in run defense.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | 0.034 | 4 | 0.02 | 26 | 22 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.026 | 9 | 0.017 | 25 | 16 |
And Fields is no longer a net negative in the passing game. He struggled last year (5.8 AY/A), and in Weeks 1-3 he did little and looked awful doing it (15 attempts per game, 3.5 AY/A), but since Week 4 he has been a serviceable passer (23.1 attempts, 7.8 AY/A).
The Falcons have been without No. 1 CB A.J. Terrell (hamstring) ever since he exited Week 7 early, and even if he returns to action this week he likely will play with physical limitations. As for No. 2 CB Casey Hayward (shoulder, IR), he doesn’t seem close to returning.
Mentioned this on the pod that Falcons CB Casey Hayward (currently on IR) was with the team last night in Charlotte, his arm in a sling.
He had surgery a few weeks ago.
— Michael Rothstein (@mikerothstein) November 11, 2022
The Falcons are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (20.5%) and No. 30 in dropback SR (51.6%). Even with Terrell, they would be vulnerable.
I expect Fields to be able to do just enough against the corners and whatever he wants against the linebackers, and that should be enough to get the Bears the cover.
Best Line: Bears +3.5 (-110, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Bears +4 (-110)
Personal Projection: Bears +0.75
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
- Kickoff:'Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium
- TV: CBS
Jets at Patriots: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Patriots -3.5
- Betting Percentages: Patriots – 56% bets, 73% money
Jets at Patriots: 2022 ATS Records
- Jets ATS: 6-3 (27.5% ROI)
- Patriots ATS: 5-3-1 (17.1% ROI)
Jets at Patriots: Notable Trend
- Patriots HC Bill Belichick: 3-0 ATS (117.3% ROI) vs. Jets QB Zach Wilson
Jets at Patriots: Team Statistics
Jets Offense vs. Patriots Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.04 | 23 | -0.116 | 1 | -22 |
| Total SR | 41.1% | 27 | 41.2% | 5 | -22 |
| Total DVOA | -1.0% | 19 | -15.9% | 3 | -16 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.064 | 27 | -0.153 | 1 | -26 |
| Dropback SR | 42.3% | 28 | 39.6% | 1 | -27 |
| Pass DVOA | 6.3% | 18 | -25.6% | 2 | -16 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.6% | 12 | 9.5% | 3 | -9 |
| Rush EPA | 0.001 | 7 | -0.057 | 17 | 10 |
| Rush SR | 38.9% | 25 | 43.8% | 24 | -1 |
| Rush DVOA | 1.0% | 12 | -2.5% | 21 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.34 | 19 | 4.61 | 22 | 3 |
| Yards per Play | 5.3 | 19 | 5.2 | 8 | -11 |
| Points per Game | 21.8 | 19 | 18.4 | 6 | -13 |
Patriots Offense vs. Jets Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.047 | 25 | -0.045 | 7 | -18 |
| Total SR | 42.5% | 21 | 43.6% | 14 | -7 |
| Total DVOA | -13.5% | 26 | -11.2% | 6 | -20 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.042 | 25 | -0.034 | 7 | -18 |
| Dropback SR | 44.7% | 22 | 43.5% | 5 | -17 |
| Pass DVOA | -7.0% | 28 | -12.3% | 6 | -22 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.9% | 26 | 8.0% | 12 | -14 |
| Rush EPA | -0.054 | 18 | -0.061 | 15 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 39.5% | 22 | 43.9% | 25 | 3 |
| Rush DVOA | -8.0% | 22 | -9.8% | 10 | -12 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.45 | 17 | 4.08 | 6 | -11 |
| Yards per Play | 5.3 | 19 | 4.8 | 4 | -15 |
| Points per Game | 22.6 | 14 | 19.6 | 10 | -4 |
Jets at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Zach Wilson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| AY/A | 6.3 | 23 |
| QBR | 49.1 | 18 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2.2 | 39 |
Career: Zach Wilson
- AY/A: 5.6
- QB Elo per Game: -107.7
2022: Mac Jones
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.034 | 26 |
| AY/A | 5.4 | 36 |
| QBR | 32.7 | 28 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.5 | 32 |
Career: Mac Jones
- AY/A: 6.6
- QB Elo per Game: -31.7
Key Matchup: Patriots Pass Defense vs. Jets QB Zach Wilson
Come on. In Week 8, the Patriots were -3 on the road against the Jets, and they won 22-17. Even though they lost by only five points, the Jets trailed by 12 entering the final two minutes, and at no point in the fourth quarter were they a significant threat.
And now the Patriots are at home — and they’re still favored by just -3.
Against Wilson.
Yes, he had 355 yards and two touchdowns passing against the Patriots in Week 8 — but he also had three interceptions and completed only 48.8% of his pass attempts.
In three career starts against the Patriots, Wilson has a 53.6% completion rate and 4.1 AY/A on 616-2-7 passing with seven sacks for 53 yards. Disgusting.
Without RB Breece Hall (knee, IR), the Jets have minimal explosiveness in the running game, and they’re bottom-six in passing offense while the Patriots defense is No. 1 against the pass.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | -0.064 | 27 | -0.153 | 1 | -26 |
| Dropback SR | 0.423 | 28 | 0.396 | 1 | -27 |
I expect Wilson to have another mediocre-at-best showing against the Patriots.
Best Line: Patriots -3 (-115, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Patriots -3 (-115)
Personal Projection: Patriots -4
- Kickoff:'Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location:'MetLife Stadium
- TV:'FOX
Lions at Giants: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
- Spread: Giants -3
- Betting Percentages: Lions – 42% bets, 68% money
Lions at Giants: 2022 ATS Records
- Lions ATS: 5-4 (6.9% ROI)
- Giants ATS: 7-2 (50.0% ROI)
Lions at Giants: Notable Trend
- HC Dan Campbell:'16-9 ATS (22.4% ROI) as underdog
Lions at Giants: Team Statistics
Lions Offense vs. Giants Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.004 | 16 | 0.034 | 20 | 4 |
| Total SR | 44.7% | 17 | 44.1% | 16 | -1 |
| Total DVOA | 5.2% | 13 | 7.9% | 24 | 11 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.062 | 13 | 0.069 | 17 | 4 |
| Dropback SR | 46.7% | 15 | 45.7% | 14 | -1 |
| Pass DVOA | 17.0% | 11 | 13.7% | 23 | 12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.2% | 3 | 6.0% | 22 | 19 |
| Rush EPA | -0.081 | 23 | -0.025 | 24 | 1 |
| Rush SR | 41.7% | 17 | 41.3% | 14 | -3 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.1% | 14 | -0.9% | 23 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.78 | 4 | 4.79 | 26 | 22 |
| Yards per Play | 5.9 | 5 | 5.8 | 23 | 18 |
| Points per Game | 24.3 | 9 | 19.2 | 9 | 0 |
Giants Offense vs. Lions Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.065 | 8 | 0.141 | 32 | 24 |
| Total SR | 43.7% | 18 | 49.0% | 30 | 12 |
| Total DVOA | 2.5% | 15 | 9.7% | 26 | 11 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.129 | 6 | 0.205 | 30 | 24 |
| Dropback SR | 46.7% | 15 | 51.3% | 29 | 14 |
| Pass DVOA | 15.8% | 13 | 14.1% | 24 | 11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 10.3% | 31 | 5.3% | 27 | -4 |
| Rush EPA | -0.016 | 11 | 0.046 | 29 | 18 |
| Rush SR | 40.0% | 21 | 45.6% | 27 | 6 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.5% | 13 | 4.0% | 27 | 14 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.25 | 23 | 4.74 | 24 | 1 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 24 | 6.5 | 32 | 8 |
| Points per Game | 20.8 | 22 | 29.3 | 32 | 10 |
Lions at Giants: Quarterback Statistics
2022: Jared Goff
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.071 | 16 |
| AY/A | 7.5 | 9 |
| QBR | 54.5 | 14 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.7 | 15 |
Career: Jared Goff
- AY/A: 7.3
- QB Elo per Game: 4.9
2022: Daniel Jones
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.1 | 10 |
| AY/A | 7 | 12 |
| QBR | 60.3 | 8 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.0 | 19 |
Career: Daniel Jones
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -26.0
Key Matchup: Lions Offensive Line vs. Giants Defensive Line
In our internal FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Lions offensive line has a massive edge over the defensive line for the Giants, who are without EDGE Azeez Ojulari (calf, IR).
2022 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR T – Expert Consensus Rankings
In my personal rankings, the Lions have the No. 1 offensive line in the league, and they’re top-four in adjusted sack rate and adjusted line yards while the Giants defensive line is outside the top 20 in those metrics.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 0.042 | 3 | 0.06 | 22 | 19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.78 | 4 | 4.79 | 26 | 22 |
If the Lions are able to control the line of scrimmage on offense, I like their chances to keep this game close.