Matthew Freedman’s 2022 NFL Projected Win Totals & Bets

As a full-on degenerate and aspiring sharp, I’ve recently created a projection model (a.k.a. a multi-colored spreadsheet) for NFL spreads and over/unders.

This model, which takes into account home-field advantage and a number of other factors, is driven primarily by my proprietary power ratings. “Proprietary,” because only my brain is wild enough to assign some of these neutral-site opponent-agnostic numbers to these teams.

What are the factors that I take into account when creating and adjusting my power ratings? I obviously look at some basic stats — like #QBWinz and #SuperBowlVictories — but after that I consider two main sources of data.

  1. The betting market itself, specifically odds to win the Super Bowl, conference and division: This helps me anchor my rankings to a “skin in the game”-based reality.
  2. On-field team-level statistics (with some player-focused adjustments), specifically expected points added (EPA), success rate and yards per play: This helps me (hopefully) maintain a degree of objectivism.

With my power ratings, I can use my model to create projected spreads for every NFL game in the regular season — and then I can convert these spreads into win probabilities, which I can add together to get a projected win total for each team.

And that’s exactly what I’ve done.

In this piece, you’ll see my projected 2022 win totals, which — when compared to the win totals on our BettingPros odds page — highlight several exploitable opportunities in the betting market.

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Team Win Total Proj Win Tot Proj Win Tot Diff
BUF 11.5 11.8 0.3
TB 11.5 10.9 -0.6
GB 11 10.9 -0.1
KC 10.5 11.1 0.6
LAR 10.5 10.6 0.1
DAL 10.5 10.2 -0.3
LAC 10.5 10 -0.5
SF 10 9.9 -0.1
BAL 10 9.9 -0.1
DEN 10 9.8 -0.2
PHI 9.5 10 0.5
CIN 9.5 9.9 0.4
IND 9.5 9.4 -0.1
TEN 9.5 8.1 -1.4
CLE 9.5 7.5 -2
MIN 9 8.4 -0.6
NE 8.5 8.9 0.4
NO 8.5 8.6 0.1
ARI 8.5 8.3 -0.2
MIA 8.5 8.2 -0.3
LV 8.5 7.6 -0.9
PIT 7.5 7.8 0.3
NYG 7.5 7.6 0.1
WAS 7.5 7.4 -0.1
DET 6.5 7.4 0.9
CHI 6.5 6.7 0.2
CAR 6.5 6.6 0.1
JAX 6.5 6.3 -0.2
NYJ 5.5 5.8 0.3
SEA 5.5 5.7 0.2
HOU 4.5 5.5 1
ATL 4.5 5.2 0.7

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 11.5 Wins

I have the Bucs rated as a top-four team, but this season they face a number of obstacles — or at least changes. HC Bruce Arians is gone, as are WR Antonio Brown, TE Rob Gronkowski, EDGE Jason Pierre-Paul and DT Ndamukong Suh.

And they’re dealing with injuries. No. 2 WR Chris Godwin (knee) might not be ready for Week 1, and C Ryan Jensen (knee) suffered what might be a season-ending injury in training camp, which means that (without Jensen) the interior of the offensive line will have three new starters, given the offseason departures of LG Ali Marpet and RG Alex Cappa. As a result, QB Tom Brady might face more pressure and take more hits.

Brady’s now 45 years old, and 11.5 is an aggressively high win total.

I’m nothing if not a realistic pessimist.

Bet: Under 11.5, -116 (PointsBet)
Limit: -125

Kansas City Chiefs Over 10.5 Wins

I normally don’t bet overs, especially high overs. If you add up all the consensus win totals in the market, the number you get is 273.5 … but there are only 272 games in the regular season.

Unsurprisingly, the win total market is inflated: Casual fans tend to bet based on team allegiance, and that means sportsbooks can skew their numbers upward. Hence, unders tend to be sharper bets, and fewer overs offer value.

But I can’t help myself with the Chiefs, who are No. 2 in my power ratings. They lost WR Tyreek Hill in the offseason — as well as WRs Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson — but they brought in WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore to replace them, and they still have QB Patrick Mahomes.

Say whatever you want about his so-called struggles last year, but in 2021 the Chiefs were No. 1 in success rate (51.1%, per RBs Don’t Matter) with Mahomes, and since he entered the league he’s No. 1 in composite EPA and completion percentage over expectation (0.175). He’s still the best quarterback in the league (in my opinion).

And HC Andy Reid is still one of the best offensive play callers and overall coaches. In his nine years with the team, the Chiefs have failed to go over 10.5 wins just twice. And in each of Mahomes’ four seasons as the starter, the team has won 12-plus games.

If the market is skeptical on Mahomes and Reid, I’ll gladly back them.

Bet: Over 10.5, -115 (BetMGM)
Limit: -125

Tennessee Titans Under 9.5 Wins

Everything the Titans have done this offseason indicates that they are in the middle of a miniature rebuild.

  
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