:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71182883/usa_today_18745998.0.jpg "Marlins vs. Reds prediction: Picks, odds, live stream, TV channel, start time on Thursday, July 28")
The Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds square off on Thursday with first pitch set for 12:35 p.m. ET. The game takes place at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio and will only be available on local TV or through an MLB.tv subscription. The Marlins starter is Daniel Castano (1-3, 3.86 ERA), and Graham Ashcraft (4-2, 4.70 ERA) will throw for the Reds.
Miami (46-52) will go for a series split in this four-game set, as they enter Thursday afternoon 5.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race. Castano has been called up to make a spot start, and this is his 10th appearance and seventh start of 2022. The Marlins have the fourth-worst OPS (.677) in the league, and rookie outfielder JJ Bleday knocked out his first career home run yesterday in his fifth game in the majors.
Cincinnati (38-59) will go for its second consecutive series victory out of the All-Star Break. Ashcraft is a rookie making his 12th start of the season, and he's coming off an outing where he allowed 4 runs over 4.2 innings of work in a victory over the St. Louis Cardinals last week. The Reds rank No. 24 in OPS (.687), and Brandon Drury leads the team in home runs (19) and RBIs (57).
Marlins vs. Reds
Pitchers: Daniel Castano vs. Graham Ashcraft
First pitch: 12:35 p.m. ET
Marlins local broadcast: Bally Sports Florida
Reds local broadcast: Bally Sports Ohio
Live stream: MLB.tv (subscription)
Odds, picks & predictions
Run Line: Reds -1.5 (+140)
Run total: 9.5
Moneyline odds: Reds -140, Marlins +120
Moneyline pick: Marlins +120
Neither team hits the ball very well, and there is not a significant advantage on the mound either way, so there is value on the team that would get a higher payout with a victory. Castano has been fine in putting Miami into position to win games this season, as he works to establish himself as a big leaguer.
Player prop pick: Graham Ashcraft Over 4.5 strikeouts (+130)
The Reds starter had a double-digit K/9 through the minor leagues, but that has not translated well into the majors, checking in with a 6.1 K/9 through 11 starts. Eventually, the strikeout totals are likely to increase, and he will face a Marlins offense that averages the ninth-most strikeouts per game (8.7).