The Miami Marlins (+115) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-135) on Thursday, September 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 55-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 67-66 ATS.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Gibson | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -115 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 62-71 against the Run Line (-19.9 Units / -11.31% ROI).
- 55-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.75 Units / -16.98% ROI
- 57-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.65 Units / -13.35% ROI
- 70-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.6 Units / 5.19% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 67-66 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -0.99% ROI).
- 74-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.85 Units / 1.47% ROI
- 67-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.25 Units / 0.17% ROI
- 61-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -8.33% ROI
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (100/519) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 71% (843/1,181) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 56% (127/225) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 93rd Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (39/225) against Sandy Alcantara this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 58% when ahead in the count (seventh lowest)– 13th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (tied for fourth highest among qualified SPs)– 94th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (347/594) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (27/155) against Kyle Gibson on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has allowed an OBP of .395 (114 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .303 — fourth Percentile.