The Miami Marlins (+240) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-300) on Thursday, June 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:20pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.

This season, the Marlins are 28-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 44-36 ATS.

Marlins vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-8, 4.92 ERA
• Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 9-4, 2.75 ERA

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 72.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+19.15 Units / 44% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 68% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
• Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 25 games at home (+12.10 Units / 48% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 34 away games (+14.90 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 34 away games (+12.90 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+12.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+4.00 Units / 50% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 25% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 65 games (+23.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 63 games (+21.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 62 games (+19.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 33 games at home (+17.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 63 games (+15.60 Units / 21% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 34-46 against the Run Line (-26.56 Units / -24.43% ROI).

• 28-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.4 Units / -22.74% ROI
• 41-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.17% ROI
• 38-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.5 Units / -7.39% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 44-36 against the Run Line (+8 Units / 8.34% ROI).

• 53-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.4 Units / 10.93% ROI
• 34-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.45 Units / -12.95% ROI
• 41-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.45 Units / 3.94% ROI

Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Trevor Rogers has a first-pitch strike rate of just 51% (48/95) this month (4 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.

Trevor Rogers had a first-pitch strike rate of just 43% (10/23) — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 48% (137/286) on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 25% of the time (222/895) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed batters are hitting just .140 (23-for-164) against Zack Wheeler this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (762/1,791) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (501/1,183) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has allowed an OPS of just .412 (178 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .660 — 100th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

  
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