The Miami Marlins (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Tuesday, April 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 4-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 4-6 ATS.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+3.60 Units / 72% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jerar Encarnacion has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+1.60 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.35 Units / 89% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+3.05 Units / 102% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+1.25 Units / 42% ROI)
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 -105 |
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.45 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.85 Units / 43% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.90 Units / 29% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 3-8 against the Run Line (-8.4 Units / -51.06% ROI).
- 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -26.75% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -3.75% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -4.92% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 4-6 against the Run Line (-3.8 Units / -27.94% ROI).
- 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -22.66% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -4% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -1.86% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (35/87) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .042 (1 Total Bases / 24 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .252 — 96th Percentile.
Hitters swung at 53% of Jesus Luzardo’s pitches (285/534) with two-strikes in 2022 — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 31% (15 SO in 48 PAs) this season — 12th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 89th Percentile.