The Miami Marlins (+110) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-130) on Tuesday, May 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Marlins are 19-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 29-28 ATS.

Marlins vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 2-3, 4.20 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 2-5, 4.90 ERA

Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+17.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+15.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 26 games (+14.75 Units / 51% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 20 away games (+13.50 Units / 68% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 36% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 41 games (+19.80 Units / 48% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 50 games (+17.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+15.90 Units / 33% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+15.30 Units / 30% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+12.80 Units / 25% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 23 away games (+10.30 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.20 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.20 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+6.85 Units / 49% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 28 games at home (+13.80 Units / 41% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.15 Units / 28% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+5.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.55 Units / 28% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.00 Units / 9% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 23-32 against the Run Line (-16.31 Units / -22.51% ROI).

• 19-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.35 Units / -25.56% ROI
• 30-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 4.81% ROI
• 25-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.85 Units / -12.92% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 29-28 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 3.56% ROI).

• 29-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -6.37% ROI
• 29-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -0.64% ROI
• 27-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -8.2% ROI

Padres vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jesus Luzardo has walked 30 of 351 batters (9%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 13th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .192 (62-for-323) against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 97th Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has not walked any of the 18 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 35% (181 SO in 513 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters have chased just 42 of Matt Waldron’s 239 off-speed pitches out of the zone (18%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 29% (47/162) against Matt Waldron on sliders this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 47% — third Percentile.

Matt Waldron has allowed an OBP of .528 (36 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .293 — 0 Percentile.

Matt Waldron has allowed a slugging percentage of .582 (46 Total Bases / 79 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: .376 — second Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

  
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