The Miami Marlins (+180) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-225) on Tuesday, September 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 63-90 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 84-70 ATS.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 57.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -120 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -135 |
| Pablo Lopez | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 72-81 against the Run Line (-20.3 Units / -10.07% ROI).
- 63-90 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.35 Units / -17.72% ROI
- 67-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.5 Units / -10.93% ROI
- 78-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 2.7% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 84-70 against the Run Line (+12.85 Units / 6.66% ROI).
- 97-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.6 Units / 2.49% ROI
- 80-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.1 Units / 3.58% ROI
- 67-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.95 Units / -12.37% ROI
Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 38% (141/376) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 38% (95/251) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 97th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (187/212) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 33% of the time (629/1,890) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .671 (53 Total Bases / 79 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .416 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 29% (93/320) against Carlos Carrasco since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .670 (71 Total Bases / 106 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .417 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .670 (71 Total Bases / 106 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .417 — 0 Percentile.