The Miami Marlins (+140) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-165) on Sunday, October 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Marlins vs Brewers Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 66-92 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 66-92 ATS.

Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.

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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+13.75 Units / 34% ROI)
• Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.05 Units / 35% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.75 Units / 41% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.80 Units / 35% ROI)
• Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 38% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 51 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.60 Units / 36% ROI)
• Garrett Mitchell has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+8.65 Units / 124% ROI)
• Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+8.10 Units / 73% ROI)

Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 91 games (+26.05 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+15.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 86 games (+13.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 away games (+9.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games (+9.25 Units / 61% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 72 of their last 138 games (+9.70 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 74 games at home (+8.97 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 73% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games at home (+7.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.75 Units / 94% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 77-81 against the Run Line (-15.3 Units / -7.34% ROI).

• 66-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.45 Units / -15.7% ROI
• 69-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.85 Units / -11.35% ROI
• 81-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.45 Units / 3.14% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 66-92 against the Run Line (-34.1 Units / -17.93% ROI).

• 84-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.2 Units / -8.86% ROI
• 75-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -4.69% ROI
• 76-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.25 Units / -3.02% ROI

Pablo Lopez: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 44% of the time (266/601) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 31% of the time (218/712) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 40% of the time (219/543) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (198/226) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.

Freddy Peralta: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 45% (113 SO in 254 PAs) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .091 (42-for-460) against Freddy Peralta with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .166 — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .155 (60-for-387) against Freddy Peralta since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .235 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .114 (9-for-79) against Freddy Peralta on low fastballs since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .271 — 100th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

  
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