The Miami Marlins (+185) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-225) on Friday, July 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.

This season, the Marlins are 37-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 54-48 ATS.

Marlins vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-9, 4.61 ERA
• Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 6-5, 3.91 ERA

Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 64.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Josh Bell has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+20.60 Units / 515% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+16.60 Units / 38% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+15.60 Units / 74% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.45 Units / 31% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 32% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 18 games at home (+14.40 Units / 80% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.30 Units / 37% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+12.25 Units / 49% ROI)
• Sal Frelick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.65 Units / 53% ROI)
• Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+11.45 Units / 32% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 44 away games (+16.65 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 85 games (+12.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 44 away games (+10.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 46% ROI)

Brewers Best Bets Today:

• The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games at home (+11.85 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 102 games (+11.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+10.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 102 games (+10.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.70 Units / 22% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 48-55 against the Run Line (-23.01 Units / -16.87% ROI).

• 37-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.35 Units / -18.64% ROI
• 56-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.1 Units / 6.24% ROI
• 45-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.7 Units / -13.9% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 54-48 against the Run Line (+3.4 Units / 2.52% ROI).

• 59-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.75 Units / 9.15% ROI
• 54-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.35 Units / 6.6% ROI
• 43-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.6 Units / -14.69% ROI

Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Trevor Rogers has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 50% (183/369) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .440 (184 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: .322 — 0 Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 33% of Trevor Rogers’ breaking pitches (120/369) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 27% (73/268) against Trevor Rogers on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.

Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 31% (141 SO in 449 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .259 (42 Total Bases / 162 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .371 — 98th Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 32% (146 SO in 450 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 96th Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 58% (387/662) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

  
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