The Miami Marlins (+180) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-225) on Tuesday, July 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Marlins are 32-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 46-44 ATS.
Marlins vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-9, 4.93 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Marlins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Marlins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 65.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+19.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 72 games (+17.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 38 away games (+14.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 38 away games (+12.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+4.40 Units / 23% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 32 games (+15.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+14.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+8.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games (+7.35 Units / 13% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 40-50 against the Run Line (-24.61 Units / -20.49% ROI).
- 32-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -19 Units / -19.75% ROI
- 47-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 2.57% ROI
- 41-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.95 Units / -10.07% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 46-44 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 2.75% ROI).
- 46-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.25 Units / -8.19% ROI
- 35-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.3 Units / -21.69% ROI
- 52-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.55 Units / 13.56% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 26% (62/237) against Trevor Rogers on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 48% (154/321) on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 24% of the time (230/940) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 164 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 32% of Trevor Rogers’ breaking pitches (104/321) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .173 (58-for-335) against Ronel Blanco this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (46/114) against Ronel Blanco on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has allowed a BABIP of .188 this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .283 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .175 (28-for-160) against Ronel Blanco this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — 100th Percentile.