The Miami Marlins (+165) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-200) on Thursday, July 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.

This season, the Marlins are 32-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 47-45 ATS.

Marlins vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Roddery Munoz 1-3, 5.49 ERA
• Astros starting pitcher: Shawn Dubin 1-1, 5.47 ERA

Marlins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 59.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+19.15 Units / 44% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 68% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.85 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 74 games (+19.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 40 away games (+17.05 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 away games (+12.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 20 games (+2.40 Units / 11% ROI)

Astros Best Bets Today:

• The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 34 games (+15.60 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 75 games (+14.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.75 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.65 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 8 games at home (+8.50 Units / 61% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 41-51 against the Run Line (-24.71 Units / -20.22% ROI).

• 32-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -21 Units / -21.38% ROI
• 48-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.4 Units / 2.37% ROI
• 42-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.05 Units / -9.95% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 47-45 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 2.52% ROI).

• 48-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.25 Units / -6.36% ROI
• 36-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.45 Units / -21.35% ROI
• 53-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.45 Units / 13.17% ROI

Astros vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Astros vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Astros vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Astros vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Roddery Munoz has walked 24 of 195 batters (12%) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

Roddery Munoz has allowed a slugging percentage of .550 (93 Total Bases / 169 ABs) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .400 — first Percentile.

Roddery Munoz has allowed an OPS of .889 (195 PA’s) this season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .706 — fifth Percentile.

Roddery Munoz has walked 4 of 20 batters (20%) this month (1 games) — tied for 2nd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 8% — sixth Percentile.

Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Shawn Dubin has a first-pitch strike rate of just 47% (60/129) this season — lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.

Shawn Dubin has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 47% (46/97) of opposing batters this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

Shawn Dubin has a strike rate of just 58% (134/229) against right-handed batters this season — 5th lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.

Shawn Dubin has a strike rate of just 57% (110/192) with runners in scoring position this season — 6th lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 64% — seventh Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

  
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