Marlins-Phillies prediction: Picks, odds on Tuesday, April 11

After a 15-3 Philly rout on Monday, the Miami Marlins attempt to rebound in game two of a three-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday, April 11th. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Jesus Luzardo (1-0, 0.71 ERA) goes for Miami, while Aaron Nola (0-1, 7.45 ERA) will start for the Phils.

The Phillies are -145 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Marlins are +125 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.

Marlins-Phillies picks: Tuesday, April 11th

Marlins

Day to day: OF Avisail Garcia (hamstring)

Out: SS Joey Wendle (intercostal strain), RP JT Chargois (oblique), RP Steven Okert (adductor strain), SP Johnny Cueto (biceps)

Phillies

Out: OF Bryce Harper (elbow), 1B Rhys Hoskins (knee), 1B Darick Hall (thumb), SP Ranger Suarez (forearm)

Jesus Luzardo vs. Aaron Nola

We may finally be witnessing Luzardo's long-awaited breakout, as the lefty has allowed just one run with 15 strikeouts in 12.1 innings over his first two starts of 2023 – including a dominant seven-inning, 10-K effort against the Twins his last time out. He has a 3.00 career ERA in three starts against the Phillies.

Nola, on the other hand, needs a get-well game in the worst way. Philly's ace got shellacked by the Rangers on Opening Day, then gave up three runs in six innings en route to a loss against the New York Yankees last week. Thankfully, the Marlins would seem to be the perfect matchup: Nola has a 3.18 career ERA against Miami in 20 starts.

Philly's lineup broke out in a big way on Monday night, but I'm cutting against the grain here and taking the under. Luzardo has been among the very best starters in all of baseball so far this year, and the Phillies' lineup is far less imposing without Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and Darick Hall. Nola, meanwhile, should finally get back on track against a Marlins team that's dead-last in K rate against right-handed pitching this year.

Pick: Under 8

I'm tempted to pull the trigger on Luzardo with better odds, but the Philly bullpen is rested and ready and I'm not sure how this Marlins lineup will scratch across enough runs against Nola and Co.

Pick: Phillies

  
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