The Seattle Mariners (-190) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+155) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Mariners are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at –1.5.
The Mariners vs Royals Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mariners are 82-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 75-77 ATS.
Mariners vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Mariners vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Sunday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 52 away games (+20.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Luis Castillo has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 29 games (+10.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 52 away games (+9.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 29 games (+9.85 Units / 33% ROI)
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 34 games at home (+18.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 47 games (+15.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 68 of his last 108 games (+11.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 26% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+10.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 away games (+9.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 26 away games (+4.50 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+9.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+9.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+6.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.65 Units / 93% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 79-71 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -1.68% ROI).
- 82-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 2.6% ROI
- 68-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.2 Units / -8.02% ROI
- 75-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 0.54% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 75-77 against the Run Line (-14.2 Units / -7.16% ROI).
- 62-90 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.45 Units / -9.56% ROI
- 74-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -2.97% ROI
- 72-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.85 Units / -5.86% ROI
Luis Castillo: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 63% (19/30) against Luis Castillo this month (4 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
59% of Luis Castillo’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 47% (58 SO in 122 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .104 (11-for-106) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 99th Percentile.
Maximo Castillo: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game