The Seattle Mariners (+125) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-155) on Thursday, October 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:37pm EDT in Houston for this postseason game.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mariners are 92-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 86-77 ATS.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s matchup with 54.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Mariners and all MLB games with BetMGM
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 55 away games (+23.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 52 away games (+14.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 37 of his last 55 away games (+12.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 away games (+12.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+10.70 Units / 66% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 45 of his last 80 games at home (+16.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 38 games at home (+9.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 56 away games (+16.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 54 away games (+15.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 31 away games (+14.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 62 away games (+13.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 38 away games (+12.10 Units / 27% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 96 of their last 150 games (+30.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 91 of their last 161 games (+24.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 100 of their last 147 games (+20.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 79 of their last 144 games (+14.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 81 games at home (+11.45 Units / 12% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 86-79 against the Run Line (-4.4 Units / -2.03% ROI).
- 92-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.85 Units / 2.68% ROI
- 77-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -5.3% ROI
- 80-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -2.11% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 86-77 against the Run Line (+9.95 Units / 5.17% ROI).
- 107-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.3 Units / 5.66% ROI
- 61-92 when betting on the total runs Over for -38.8 Units / -21.75% ROI
- 92-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +24.2 Units / 13.39% ROI
Luis Castillo: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 13.1 innings pitched — Sam Hentges has the longest active streak at 24.1.
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 48% (62 SO in 130 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .096 (11-for-114) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 99th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has pitched 12.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Raisel Iglesias has the longest active streak at 25.0.
Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (539/783) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (636/933) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.