Mariners-Phillies prediction: Picks, odds on Tuesday, April 25

Two postseason contenders off to sluggish starts look to get back on track on Tuesday, as the Seattle Mariners (10-12) head east to start a three-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies (11-12). First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Seattle will send ace Logan Gilbert (1-1, 3.57 ERA) to the mound, while Philly counters with lefty Bailey Falter (0-3, 4.50).

Seattle is a -120 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Phillies are narrow +100 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.

Mariners-Phillies picks: Tuesday, April 25

Mariners

Out: UTIL Dylan Moore (core), RP Andres Munoz (deltoid), SP Robbie Ray (flexor strain), OF Taylor Trammell (hamate bone)

Phillies

Out: RP Nick Nelson (hamstring), RP Andrew Bellatti (triceps), OF Bryce Harper (elbow), 1B Darick Hall (thumb)

Logan Gilbert vs. Bailey Falter

After breaking out last year with a 3.20 ERA over 32 starts, the righty has had an up-and-down 2023, alternating good (two runs over 12.1 innings against the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago Cubs) with not-so-good (seven runs over 10 frames against Cleveland in a rematch and the Milwaukee Brewers). The underlying numbers are encouraging, though: His strikeout and ground ball rates are way up, while his walk rate is down. It feels like it's just a matter of time before the righty ignites.

Thrust into the rotation due to the injury to Ranger Suarez, Falter has proven to be a perfectly average fifth starter – good enough to get by against weaker offenses while vulnerable to stronger ones, thanks to a fastball that averages just 90.3 mph and hittable offspeed offerings. He won't rack up many strikeouts, but he should do enough to keep Philly in the game against a Mariners offense that sits 26th in OPS against lefties.

Seattle games have cleared this number five times in their last six games, and while Gilbert is certainly capable of a lights-out performance, this Phillies offense – namely Brandon Marsh and Kyle Schwaber – has mashed righties this season. Citizens Bank Park is capable of producing some crooked numbers, so I'll take the over.

Pick: Over 8

This pitching matchup should favor the Mariners, but the platoon advantage is in the Phillies' favor, and Falter should do enough to turn it into a battle of the bullpens – in which Philly's trio of Gregory Soto, Craig Kimbrel and Jose Alvarado should thrive.

Pick: Phillies

  
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