Mariners-Braves prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, May 20

After taking game one of their interleague set against the Seattle Mariners, the NL-leading Atlanta Braves will look to take the series in a Saturday night tilt from Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. The Mariners will send ace Logan Gilbert (1-2, 3.91 ERA) to the mound, while the Braves will open with reliever Jesse Chavez in what's setting up to be a bullpen day amid rotation injuries.

The Braves enter as -135 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Seattle is a narrow +115 underdog. The run total is set at 9.

Mariners

Out: RP Penn Murfee (elbow), RP Andres Munoz (deltoid), UTIL Dylan Moore (core)

Braves

Out: RP Lucas Luetge (biceps), SP Max Fried (forearm), SP Kyle Wright (shoulder)

Logan Gilbert vs. Jesse Chavez

Gilbert hasn't been quite as sharp as he was during his breakout 2022 season, but he's still been a reliable workhorse for Seattle – and his elite K rate and 2.92 expected ERA suggest he's been the victim of a bit of bad luck recently. The righty has gone at least 5.2 innings and allowed no more than three runs in any start this month, so he could be set to go on a run.

Amid injuries to Fried and Wright (and struggles from rookies Dylan Dodd and Jared Shuster), the Braves will make it a bullpen game on Saturday in order to give veteran Charlie Morton an extra day of rest. Chavez will get the ball first, but we could see six or seven arms for Atlanta today.

Gilbert hasn't quite locked in yet, and while he should keep Atlanta somewhat in check, this Braves lineup is too good to hold down completely. And with an improving Mariners offense getting to swing against the underbelly of the Braves' bullpen, that should be enough to hit this over.

Pick: Over 9

I get that Atlanta has been hot lately, and their offense can win games by themselves, but I'll take Gilbert and plus odds over the Braves' Johnny-whole-staff approach today.

Pick: Mariners

  
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