Selection Sunday 2024 is rapidly approaching, which means another rapid descent into NCAA basketball odds, bracketology, 12-over-5 upsets, and March Madness predictions.'
I'll be writing about the NCAA Tournament and March Madness a lot over the next few weeks. I've got college basketball picks for the daily bettors and NCAA conference basketball tournament analysis for fans looking for specific breakdowns.'
Here, I'm letting loose with a few pre-tournament thoughts that I have. Some are relevant for Selection Sunday, and others will reach beyond that into the heart of the tournament.'
Hopefully, everything here should help give you some shape and color when you start thinking about how to fill out your bet slips and bracket sheets.'
March Madness Predictions: The ACC Will Do More With Less
I live in ACC country, so I pay close attention to the comings and goings of the Atlantic Coast Conference. But you don't have to have in-laws in Charlottesville and Chapel Hill to know that ACC men's basketball is currently in a pronounced downswing.
Once the center of the college basketball universe, it's now been five years since the conference last boasted a national champion. That might not sound like a long time, but it ties the longest streak in about 25 years.'
The current moment is starting to look like the mid- and late-90s when Duke and North Carolina receded a bit and the fulcrum of college basketball moved toward other power brokers like Kentucky and Arizona.'
This year, the ACC is going to struggle to put four teams in the NCAA Tournament. Clemson, UNC, and Duke are all comfortably in; Wake Forest and Virginia are right on the bubble. My guess is that the Demon Deacons are in while the Cavaliers miss the cut, leaving the ACC with just four teams in the NCAA Tournament. That hasn't happened since 2013.'
But a funny thing happened in 2013 – the ACC posted a reasonably impressive six tournament wins, despite the fact the conference had just four teams and no representatives in the Final Four. Even with a smaller group of teams in the mix, it still earned a lot of wins.'
I think something similar could happen this year. No one will mistake this for a vintage ACC season, but I do believe that the Carolinas will ultimately have a good NCAA Tournament. Either Duke or UNC will win the ACC Tournament; both should compete for Final Four runs.'
March Madness Odds: The Mountain West Is Not Suddenly Cured
One of the biggest talking points heading into last March was the performance of the Mountain West, which was on a spectacular 0-8 tournament run dating back to 2019.'
Understandably, San Diego State's magical run to the national championship game completely obliterated this talking point. But those who were paying attention may have noticed that the Mountain West's other four teams in the 2023 NCAA Tournament went 0-4.
So, let's parse this. On the one hand, the Mountain West had one of its greatest-ever moments as a conference in 2023 when the Aztecs played for the title. On the other hand, the Mountain West is now 0-12 in the NCAA Tournament since 2019 when setting aside the SDSU run.
At a certain point, losing streaks are no longer weird data. Something about Mountain West basketball is not translating to the NCAA Tournament right now. The Aztecs' five wins last year don’t fundamentally change how I perceive the rest of the conference in the context of the tournament. I think we're going to continue to see those struggles this year.