The first day of the NCAA Tournament always provides drama and excitement that sets the stage for the rest of the event. Read on for our March Madness best bets for Thursday based on the top NCAAB odds.
Most eyes will be on the South region, as six of the 16 games hail from the top-left portion of the bracket. In addition, three of the four No. 1 seeds play their opening round games, and six other games have point spreads of fewer than four points.
Here are our March Madness best bets for Thursday (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thursday's March Madness schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- West Virginia (-3) vs. Maryland
- Furman vs. Virginia (-5.5)
- Utah State (-1) vs. Missouri
- Howard vs . Kansas (-22)
- Texas A&M CC vs. Alabama (-24)
- Charleston vs. San Diego State (-5)
- Princeton vs. Arizona (-14.5)
- Illinois vs. Arkansas (-2)
- Auburn (-1) vs. Iowa
- Oral Roberts vs. Duke (-6)
- Colgate vs. Texas (-13.5)
- Boise State vs. Northwestern (-1.5)
- Northern Kentucky vs. Houston (-19)
- Louisiana vs. Tennessee (-11)
- Penn State vs. Texas A&M (-2.5)
- UNC Asheville vs. UCLA (-17.5)
March Madness best bets for Thursday
- Spread: Furman +6 vs. Virginia (-110 via Caesars) ????
- Moneyline: Arkansas ML vs. Illinois (-128 via FanDuel) ????
- Total: Boise State-Northwestern Under 128.5 (-110 via PointsBet) ????
- Upset: Missouri ML vs. Utah State (+110 via Caesars) ???
March Madness top picks
This may seem like a curiously low sp read to many, given that this is a No. 4 vs. No. 13 matchup. However, Virginia's methodical pace grinds games to few possessions, so most of its games are close by nature (the Cavaliers played eight games decided by five or fewer points).
Few offenses are truly built to solve Virginia's pack line defense, but Furman does many of the necessary things to be successful against the Cavaliers. The Paladins space the floor at a top 25 rate, per ShotQuality, and work out of the post less than other Power Five conference teams, which Virginia quells easily with hard doubles. The Paladins are an average defensive team (ranking outside the top 183 in adjusted defensive efficiency) and were torched by Penn State and NC State in their non-conference schedule, allowing 165 combined points in the two games. However, both offenses use their guards in heavy pick-and-roll schemes, while Virginia utilizes it at one of the lowest rates among Power Five tea ms.
Furman averages 81.8 points per game and is the nation's leading 2-point shooting team (59.1%). The Paladins are an experienced team that returned more than 64% of its minutes from last year (32nd most) and ranks eighth in assist rate. That is an excellent formula to stay within this number against a team that will not light it up offensively.
We're making this wager at Caesars, as it is one of the only sportsbooks to move off the opening number of +5.5.
Arkansas was a preseason AP top-10 team before injuries hit hard. The Razorbacks still miss center Trevon Brazile but are the healthiest they have been in quite some time, with NBA prospect Nick Smith back playing the wing for the last nine games. Smith has scored 16-plus points in four of the previous six games, and he raises the ceiling considerably for a Razorbacks team that is battle-tested out of the ru gged SEC.
Illinois makes just 68% of its free throws (307th in the country), and we expect that to cost the team in a game that projects to be close. In addition, Arkansas' length on the perimeter should bother an Illinois offense that tends to play a lot of isolation basketball late in shot clocks, as evidenced by the team's 284th-lowest assist rate per field goals made (ranked 13th in that metric in Big Ten play).
The Razorbacks' odds have lowered from an opening number of -145, but we're undeterred by that line movement.
Boise State has made three NCAA Tournament appearances under head coach Leon Rice and is 0-3 while averaging 59.7 points per game. Those offensive struggles will play right into the hands of a Northwestern team that vastly outperformed preseason expectations and earned the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament in large part because of its toughness defensively.
The Wildcats rank 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency and forced turnovers at the Big Ten's highest rate (21.7%). Boise State tends to look to post-ups with its bigger wings to generate offense, but Northwestern will not allow that with one of the highest post-trap rates in the country.
Boise State is no slouch defensively either, ranking 14th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Broncos also ranked second in the Mountain West in the lowest free throw rate allowed, which is essential considering Northwestern's top five scorers all make better than 80% of their free throws.
DraftKings is the only sportsbook other than PointsBet offering a total of 128.5, but bettors must pay -120 in juice to back the Under.
This would not be an upset in terms of seeding, as Missouri is the No. 7 seed in this 7-10 matc hup. However, the Tigers' athleticism and style of play are similar to what has given Utah State fits throughout the year, and we expect it to be the difference in this matchup.
Missouri utilizes full-court pressure to turn games into a frenetic pace, and it's often difficult to slow the tempo against it and run a half-court offense. The only team in the Mountain West that applied any extended pressure defensively was San Diego State, and the Aztecs beat the Aggies three times by a combined 17 points. This is also a three-star play, as Utah State has limited depth (ranks 335th in bench minutes), so we expect the Aggies to get worn down by Missouri's relentless pressure.
Caesars offers the best moneyline odds for Missouri backers, with all other sportsbooks at +100 or +105. However, bettors could also reap the benefits of a solid in-game number if Utah State jumps out ahead early.
College basketball best bets made 3/16/2023 at 6:16 a.m. ET.
Here are our best March Madness betting sites:
- FanDuel: Get 10x Your First Bet up to $200 | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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