Two teams will cut down the nets in the East and West regions on Saturday as Final Four berths are on the line. Read on for our March Madness best bets for Saturday's Elite 8 action based on the top NCAAB odds.
History will be made at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, as either Florida Atlantic will advance to its first Final Four, or Kansas State's Jerome Tang will earn a berth during his first season as the head coach of the Wildcats.
Two of college basketball's household names square off in the other regional final: the No. 3 seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs and No. 4 seeded UConn Huskies.
Here are our March Madness best bets for Saturday (odds via DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saturday's March Madness schedule and odds
(odds courtesy of Caesars)
- Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State (-2)
- Connecticut (-2.5) vs. Gonzaga
March Madness best bets for Saturday
- Player prop: Keyontae Johnson Over 17.5 points vs. Florida Atlantic (+105 via DraftKings Sportsbook) ????
- Player prop: Drew Timme Under 21.5 points vs. UConn (-105 via DraftKings) ???
- Moneyline: UConn ML vs. Gonzaga (-135 via BetMGM) ???
- Upset: Florida Atlantic ML vs. Kansas State (+115 via Caesars) ???
March Madness top picks
No college basketball player's stock is higher right now than Kansas State point guard Markquis Nowell's outlook, as he's coming off a 20-point and 19-assist effort (the most assists in an NCAA Tournament game) against Michigan State. But that kind of p erformance will likely draw extra attention from the Florida Atlantic coaching staff, and we look for the Owls to do whatever it takes to get the ball out of Nowell's hands.
FAU ranks in the 96th percentile in pick-and-roll defense, according to Synergy. We expect the Owls to use a heavy dose of hard-hedging on those pick-and-rolls to make Nowell a passer. Nowell's 42 assists through the Sweet 16 are nine more than any other player since 1984, and Johnson will be the primary benefactor of Nowell's distribution. Johnson is a Third Team All-American, just like Nowell. But he's going largely under the radar compared to his teammate, despite scoring 53 points through three tournament games thus far.
Johnson also has been given plus odds (+100) at 17.5 through Caesars. But head to DraftKings for the best value on the same number.
Timme moved into 11th place on the NCAA Tourname nt's all-time scoring list with a 36-point performance against UCLA. But despite Timme averaging 24.1 points per game over 12 NCAA Tournament contests, let's still take the Under on his projected points total because this matchup against UConn is a step up in competition.
UConn ranks 21st in near-shot proximity field-goal percentage defense, according to Haslametrics. It should be tough sledding for Timme around the rim against the Huskies, who can use multiple defenders on him throughout the game (Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan, for example). Clingan ranks fifth among all Division I players in Evan Miyakawa's defensive Bayesian performance rating. However, head coach Danny Hurley will likely not be foolish enough to use him to defend Timme one-on-one. Additionally, UConn is an above-average team in transition defense, which is key in preventing easy looks for Timme.
Timme's 10 games with 20-plus points in the NCAA Tournament are the most all-time, but he's averaging just 20.0 points per contest during the Elite Eight or later. That gives us more confidence to back the Under as a contrarian three-star play.
DraftKings once again offers better juice than Caesars' -110 for the same number, and FanDuel is a full point lower with a total of 20.5.
Both favorites playing on Saturday are getting equal -135 moneyline odds. Still, we're more confident in UConn, which is coming off one of the tournament's most impressive showings during a 23-point dismantling of Arkansas (it led by 29 at one point).
The Huskies have been the best team in college basketball since the calendar turned to February, according to Bart Torvik's power ratings. While Gonzaga is No. 2 during that span, UConn has been more consistent for longer, ranking third among D-I teams s ince January compared to Gonzaga at No. 6.
Gonzaga is coming off an emotionally draining victory against UCLA, a game when it needed to claw back from 13 points down in the second half and fight off a furious Bruins rally late. We've seen this script play out before, with Gonzaga getting just one day off after a hard-fought victory against UCLA in the 2021 Final Four, only for Baylor to steamroll the Bulldogs 86-70 in the national championship. While that Baylor team was more talented than this UConn squad, the Huskies have produced great analytical trends and rank in the top 13 in KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics.
Lastly, Gonzaga's inconsistent defense is a problem, even though it held UCLA without a field goal for over 11 minutes during the second half in the Sweet 16.
Check out our UConn-Gonzaga pick and UConn-Gonzaga prop picks.
Florida Atlantic is a balanced team while ranking in the top 29 in KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. And while Kansas State ranks seventh nationally in assists per field goals made, the Owls have demonstrated a knack for blowing that team approach up and forcing opponents to play heavy isolation basketball. They rank second nationally in assists per field goals allowed.
Victories against Tennessee are rarely pretty, but Florida Atlantic showed great resolve despite committing six more turnovers than the Volunteers and allowing 17 offensive rebounds (a 38% offensive rebounding rate). The moment wasn't too big for the Owls despite burying themselves in a nine-point first-half hole, and most rosters without a senior in the starting lineup would have easily folded.
Florida Atlantic is 23-11-1 against the spread in 2022-23 (tied for the best ATS mark of te ams in the tournament field), including covering during 10 of 12 non-conference games. That's enough for us to take a three-star flier on the Owls' historic run continuing and them winning the game outright.
Check out our Florida Atlantic-Kansas State pick and Florida Atlantic-Kansas State prop picks.
College basketball best bets made 3/25/2023 at 7:43 a.m. ET.
Elite 8 expert picks
Elite expert picks made by Mike Spector and Shane Jackson
| Writer | Pick | Sportsbook | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Spector | Gonzaga team total Under 76.5 (-114) | FanDuel Sportsbook | ???? |
| Shane Jackson | Matt Bradley Over 12.5 points (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook | ???? |
Gonzaga entered its Sweet 16 matchup against UCLA averaging an NCAA-best 1.07 points per possession. And while it exceeded that average against the usually pesky Bruins (the Bulldogs scored 1.08 points per possession in the Sweet 16), don't forget that UCLA was without its best perimeter defender Jaylen Clark and interior defender Adem Bona.
Now the Bulldogs face a UConn team that ranks 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and boasts size in the tandem of Sanogo and Clingan, who will defend Timme. Clingan ranks fifth among all Division I players in DBPR, and he'll likely get more minutes to protect Sanogo from foul trouble.
Just one of UConn's last 11 opponents has topped 70 points, with five held under 60. Gonzaga was averaging 76.3 points per game over 11 matchups against NCAA Tournament teams leading up to March Madness, which is 10.7 points below its season average. –Spector
Anyone who has been reading my updates on the March Madness futures market knows how invested I am in the San Diego State Aztecs. Not only am I one win away from cashing a +2800 Final Four ticket, but my +10000 national championship future from last May doesn't look so silly anymore.
The smart thing to do in this position would be to hedge with a bet on Creighton to win outright. The Bluejays are a short favorite after all, and they certainly didn't need to work as hard during Friday's win over Princeton.
But I want all the money, and I'm determined to make the books pay for doubting my Aztecs.
Perhaps the most shocking part of San Diego State's upset win over Alabama was that Matt Bradley only finished with six points after playing just 19 minutes due to foul trouble. Bradley, who averages 12.8 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer for two years now and is the only player to average in double figures in either season.
His scoring prop is now a point lower than it was against Alabama, despite nearly every metric ranking Creighton as the worse team defensively. The Bluejays utilize a lot of coverage with big man Ryan Kalkbrenner anchoring the rim, which should open the door for plenty of mid-range looks from mid-range. And that's where Bradley and Co. thrive.
After failing to clear this number in back-to-back games, I'm betting on a bounce-back performance from Bradley. The Aztecs will need it if they hope to make program history and earn a trip to the Final Four in Houston. – Jackson
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