Today, we will look at Historical Advancement Rates for seeds 1-4 for the last 20 years. The data is from the KenPom database (last 20 years). I have compiled a MasterSheet that includes every single tournament team (1,333 to be exact), along with 26 advanced stats to help predict tournament success. Now, these are just raw numbers to give you an idea of how often these higher seeds actually advance to certain levels of the tournament. The percentages show at what level a team was eliminated. In future articles, we will look at the characteristics of underachieving and overa chieving higher seeds. Let's dive in!!!
March Madness Historical Seed Advancement Rate
No. 1 Seeds
- 30 out of 80 – Final 4 (40%)
- 23 out of 80 – Elite 8' (28%)
- 14 out of 80 – Sweet 16 (17%)
- 13 out of 80 – Eliminated Early (15%)
Historical trends:
- Twice since 2002, there has been a Final 4 without a 1 seed (2006 and 2011)
- In 2006, three (1) seeds made the Elite 8, and in 2011, only one (1) seed made the Elite 8
- Only three times has there been one (1) seed to make it to at least the Elite 8 (2011, 2013, and 2022)
- In 2013 and 2022, (1) seeds Louisville and Kansas made the Final 4 and won the championship
- Only twice have three or more (1) seeds made the Final 4 (2008 all four and 2015 three)
- Only twice have two (1) seeds been eliminated early (first two rounds) in the same tourney (2004 and 2018)
- Nine years out of the last 20 have all four (1) seeds made the Sweet 16
- 14 of the last 20 champions have been (1) seeds
- 18 out of 80 – Final 4 (22.5%)
- 18 out of 80 – Elite 8 (22.5%)
- 13 out of 80 – Sweet 16 (16%)
- 25 out of 80 – Second Round (31%)
- 6 out of 80 – First Round (7.5%)