Connecticut, San Diego State, Florida Atlantic and Miami. The Final Four is set!
The NCAA Tournament has been a spectacle. From Fairleigh Dickinson to Princeton to Florida Atlantic’s run to the Final Four — it’s been a heck of a ride. Let’s finish strong.
Welcome to the March Madness Final Four edition of Action Network’s betting primer.
For the first time in the seeding era (since 1979), we had no No. 1 seed and just one 1 or 2 seed in the Elite 8.
Additionally, this will be just the fourth Final Four with no No. 1 seed. The previous three Final Fours without a No. 1 seed produced these champions:
- 2011 (3) Connecticut (25-1 pre-tournament)
- 2006 (3) Florida (20-1 pre-tournament)
- 1980 (2) Louisville (8-1 pre-tournament)
Connecticut and Florida own two of the six longest pre-tournament odds to win it all in the seeding era.
Connecticut enters the Final Four as the betting favorite. Historically, Connecticut (-135) or San Diego State (+360) will likely win the national championship. In 17 of the past 18 Final Fours, one of the two favorites entering the weekend went on to win it all. The one exception was in 2014 —' when UConn won it all.
Odds to Win National Championship Entering NCAA Tournament:
- Connecticut: +1600
- Miami: +5000
- San Diego State: +8000
- Florida Atlantic: +20000
If you add up the four final teams’ national title odds entering the dance, they would add up to +34,600 — which is the 3rd-highest total in the seeding era. 2023 and 2011 are the only two years where two 80-1 or higher teams made the Final Four.
In the Bet Labs database, which dates back to 2005, the public (51% of spread tickets or more) is 23-27-1 ATS in the Final Four and National Championship Game. Most of the damage has been recent. The public was 0-3 ATS in last year’s Final Four and is 5-13 ATS since 2016.
This season has been a rollercoaster for betting over/unders:
- Overs hit at a 47.2% clip in November, 50.1% in December, 53.8% in January and 54.8% in February.
- In conference tournaments, unders went 130-111 (53.9%).
- In the Round of 64 and First Four, unders were the rage, going 27-9 (75%).
- Finally, since the Sweet 16, overs have a small edge at 8-4 in March Madness.
March Madness 2023'
Futures
Matchups
Coaches
Bet Labs
Trends
Futures Market & Notes'
- Here’s a look at the BetMGM futures market, from opening to current lines to win it all:
- At BetMGM, Florida Atlantic did not show up on the futures board until early February at 250-1, then again on March 16th at 200-1 odds.
- Longest odds at BetMGM this season for each Final Four team: Connecticut (80-1), San Diego State (100-1), Miami (100-1), Florida Atlantic (250-1)
- UConn is highest at 100-1 prior to the 2014 NCAA Tournament.
- Only four teams above 20-1 entering March Madness have won the title since 1978: 2014 UConn, 1985 Villanova, 2011 UConn, 1983 NC State
- We've had 44 NCAA Tournament champs since 1978. Nine had odds of 15-1 or higher entering the tournament (20.5%).
Final Four Matchups'
|
9
5 |
Opened: 2500-1
Entering Tournament: 200-1
+ The Owls opened the season with 2,500-1 odds. They have the 2nd-highest preseason odds to get a single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament since the 2008-09 season. Wofford who got a No. 7 seed in 2019 and was 5,000-1 in the preseason. It lost in the Round of 32.
+ Florida Atlantic is the 4th team since 1985 to reach the Elite 8 after entering the season with no NCAA Tournament wins. The other three were Gonzaga in 1999, George Mason in 2006 and Saint Peter’s in 2022. The Owls are just the 6th team in the seeding era to reach a Final Four and get their first tourney win in the same year: 2006 George Mason, 1983 Georgia, 1981 Virginia and 1979 Indiana State (only one to get to title game).
+ Florida Atlantic is 3-1 ATS in March Madness, but overall, it's 24-11-1 ATS this season, the best ATS win percentage for any team left.
+ The Owls have won 11 consecutive games, which is tied with Merrimack for the longest active win streak in the nation. This will be just the 3rd Final Four matchup since 2008 where both teams are on at least an 8-game win streak:
2018: Loyola-Chicago vs. Michigan
2015: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin
+ In the 2023 college basketball postseason, Conference USA is 15-1 straight up and 13-3 against the spread. A $100 bettor would be up $880 taking C-USA on the spread in the CBB postseason. The ATS profit record for a conference in a single season:
- 2006 SEC:' +$1,109
- 2021 PAC-12: +$1,030
- 2012 PAC-12: +$922
- 2022 ACC: +$812
+ Florida Atlantic is 35-3 straight up this season. If it wins the title and ends up 37-3, it will tie 2017 Gonzaga and 1987 UNLV for the 2nd-most total wins for a non-power 6 school behind 2008 Memphis’ 38 wins.
+ This will be Conference USA’s first Final Four since Memphis in 2008. We all know how that ended:
April 7, 2008: In the National Championship Game, Memphis blows a 9-point lead to Kansas with 2:00 left in regulation leading to a Mario Chalmers (@mchalmers15) game-tying three in the final seconds to send it into OT.
The Jayhawks would go on to win 75-68. pic.twitter.com/P5BDR7mpaH
— This Day In Sports Clips (@TDISportsClips) April 7, 2021
Opened: 66-1
Entering Tournament: 80-1
+ The Mountain West had never been to the Elite 8 prior to this season (0-6 straight up and 1-5 against the spread in the Sweet 16). Now, the conference is heading to its first Final Four.
- The streak is in jeopardy. Since Arizona in 1997, every national champion has been based east of Texas. After UCLA and Gonzaga lost in the Elite 8, it is now up to San Diego State to break the trend.
-
As a 5-seed, San Diego State has a chance to pull off history. A 5-seed has never won it all. A 4-seed or higher has won four times (all since 1985). A 3-seed or higher has won five times since 1990 (14 UConn, 11 UConn, 06 Florida, 03 Syracuse, 97 Arizona).