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Nothing says the start of the NHL regular season like a good-old showdown between Canadian foes that have seemingly been around since the beginning of time.
Wednesday's contest at the Bell Centre marks the fifth straight season opener between the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs, with the latter taking three of four. However, all three of the Maple Leafs' victories occurred on home ice, with their lone setback in Montreal.
The Maple Leafs, one of the Stanley Cup odds favorites, are also the prohibitive favorites at our best NHL betting sites to start their season on the winning track.
Our Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens prediction looks at the Over/Under while analyzing where the value lies on the puck line.
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens prediction
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence b ased on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: +100 via Betway | Implied probability: 50%
While three of the last four season openers between these ancient foes ended with at least seven goals, two of three games featuring these clubs last season resulted in the Under hitting.
I'm banking on the Under for various reasons. Auston Matthews, the ginormous Rocket Richard Trophy odds favorite, scored a hat trick against the Habs in last season's opener, but I don't think lightning will strike twice in consecutive campaigns.
The Craig Berube era is set to commence in Toronto, so I expect the team to tighten up defensively from the first puck drop, especially on the road.
While the Maple Leafs scored the second-most goals per game last season (3.63), their defensive prioritization under Berube's Iron Man-like fist might prevent them from busting a game open, at least on opening night.
At the very least, Berube will hold each player accountable for defensive lapses or lackluster play in their end of the rink. While Sheldon Keefe tried to maintain a certain level of order and accountability, Berube should be more effective in his quest to get everyone in line.
I shudder to think what happens to those who don't put in a full-blooded defensive effort.
Even if the Maple Leafs start lighting the lamp in a frenzied fashion, I have serious doubts the Canadiens can keep up. They lost Patrik Laine to a severe knee injury in the preseason and produced the 26th-ranked offense last year, scoring 2.83 goals per game to go along with the fifth-fewest shots (27.7).
Montreal also trotted out the sixth-worst power play (17.5%). However, the Canadiens weren't too miserable defensively, allowing 2.47 goals against per 60 minutes, tied for 15th.
Oh, and did I mention that Chris Tanev is now patrolling the blue line for the Maple Leafs? He's one of the league's best (albeit oldest) defensive defensemen.
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Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens puck line bet
Best odds: +125 via Betway | Implied probability: 44.44%
One goal often decides any season-opening game between the Leafs and Canadiens, with the last four following that script.
Two of three games last season followed suit, with the Maple Leafs winning their two games 6-5 and 3-2. Toronto also earned 2-1 wins during both of its preseason encounters with Montreal.
The Canadiens' lone victory last season came by a two-goal margin.
However, the trend of one goal deciding these games can only continue for so long. I like the Maple Leafs to win the season opener 4-2. Sure, it may take an empty-net goal to get the job done, but I'm confident Toronto will kick off the Berube era with a two-goal victory.
A winning $10 bet will profit $12.50.
Maple L eafs vs. Canadiens live odds & info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 9
- Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Bell Centre (Montreal, Quebec)
- How to watch: Sportsnet, ESPN+
- Favorite: Maple Leafs -190 via Betway
Maple Leafs-Canadiens predictions made Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET.
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