I put together a piece yesterday that highlighted potential Big Money Pitchers for 2023 based on early returns and some of the more impressive starting pitcher outings we’ve seen so far. I used a set of shared characteristics from pitchers that produced huge profits over the last two seasons in their first three starts of the year as a comparison. Well, unfortunately, the opposite is often true as well, as early starting pitcher struggles can often point to potential “busts” in any baseball season. At the risk of jumping the gun this early, there are some things I see early from some big-name pitchers that should raise red flags for bettors, especially since some of the pitchers are among the highest-priced options in the game. Let’s dig deeper.
I tried to perform a similar methodology to yesterday when I found some definitive shared characteristics among the early season performance of recent Big Money Pitchers. Unfortunately, the numbers weren’t anywhere near as conclusive for the potential of pitchers that wound up as big-money losers over the course of a season. In fact, of the 25 pitchers over the last two seasons that lost over 9 units for backers, there was a wide array of early season performances, with variances as wide as some pitchers starting 0-3 and others 3-0. There were ERAs as low as 0.00 after three games to as high as 7.50. With that in mind, I decided to look at some of the more advanced statistics among some big-name pitchers thus far in 2023 that have posted back-to-back underwhelming starts. It’s never too early to spot these trends, as one of the worst things we can do in MLB betting is pay inflated prices for underachieving stars.
Take a look at this list of eight different MLB starting pitchers whose first two starts have me reconsidering their betting value: