Another NFL season is in the books, and we look ahead to a month of great playoff action. Over the last five years for VSiN, I have dedicated my NFL features to covering each round and game in-depth, focusing on past trends and systems that have developed, for the purposes of cashing tickets. For the third straight year, we have 14 teams still alive in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy. The Wild Card round will eliminate six of them. As usual, there are some favorites in the betting markets, but in both conferences, it seems like a two/three horse race to make it to Glendale, AZ in February. Theoretically, the advantages would go to Philadelphia in the NFC, and Kansas City in the AFC, as those two teams claimed #1 seeds, and will be the only teams that need not worry about what transpires this weekend. Their playoff pushes begin next weekend. However, consider that the two worst division winners a year ago, Cincinnati and the Rams, both #4 seeds, eventually ended up meeting for the title.
In this first of what will be a four-part series, I start my round-by-round playoff betting angles by looking at recent Wild Card action, as well as some overall rematch, quarterback, and playoff drought systems. As with any reoccurring sporting event, the NFL playoffs have gone through various trend patterns over the years, with some seasons being dominated by underdog and upstart teams, and others being relatively predictable with favorites taking care of business. Because of this ever-changing nature, it can be difficult for bettors to thrive when using past playoff results as a guide. In past eras, predicting the playoffs was usually as easy as looking at a team’s body of work.
How tough can this playoff-betting exercise be if you just bet blindly on recent trends? Well, consider that all road teams were on a 14-4 SU and 15-3 ATS run in the Wild Card round heading into last year’s six games. As luck would have it, the hosts enjoyed their best Wild Card weekend in five years, going 5-1 SU and ATS. Dallas’ loss to San Francisco was the only setback. If you prefer betting totals, you may want to consider that UNDER is 16-8 in the last five years and 30-13-1 in the last ten playoff seasons. Again though, discernment is key, and blindly playing anything usually doesn’t have lasting success.
My own handicapping methods have changed throughout these years as well, as it seems that lately, how a team is playing recently seems to have taken on more and more importance. It’s not an end-all factor, but it’s one area to which I give significant consideration. That line of thinking would bode well for Buffalo, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, and San Francisco for this weekend, as all four of those teams are riding winning streaks of five games or more.