Last week, I started my annual NFL playoff series by looking at the trends of the recent year by digging into the wild card round. I revealed a number of different systems and methodologies that had been very successful in recent years, angles regarding outright winners, playoff droughts, and rematches that continued to thrive. This week, I will be moving on to the divisional round. The six winners of last weekend join #1 seeds Philadelphia and Kansas City in the theoretical Elite 8, looking to take another big step toward the Super Bowl.
As we analyze the remaining teams, I should note that in one of my final NFL Strength Rating Update pieces for the year, I felt that six teams had separated themselves from the pack. Well, all six of those teams are still alive and are supplemented by the Jaguars and Giants. In terms of the conference favorites, each of the top seeds brings a unique set of talents to the game, and their quarterbacks remain in the hunt for the league’s MVP award. That said, will being off last week help or hurt their prospects? A year ago, both top seeds, Green Bay and Tennessee looked rusty in their opening playoff games and were quickly bounced. I’ll look at that scenario and a lot more in this piece.
Last year, for the first time since 2009, road teams took the divisional round by winning three of the four contests. Considering that before last season, home teams had gone 36-12 SU and 25-22-1 ATS, it was quite an unexpected turn of events. It was a continuation of what has been a dramatic shift in playoff results recently. If you recall last week’s Wild Card article, the trend completely flipped in the opposite direction, with home teams ending a period of road dominance, and that pattern continued this past weekend with hosts winning four of six games. What does all of that tell us about the prospects for this weekend’s games? Unfortunately, it details a process of being unable to trust patterns and to focus more closely on specific matchups.
One important point of note regarding the lines for the games. This round typically sees the largest favorites of any playoff round, and six years ago (2017) marked the only time since ’09 when fewer than two teams were favored by at least a TD. That particular season, I speculated at the time that perhaps it signaled a couple of upsets coming. Pittsburgh and Green Bay both pulled those upsets. Last year, again I noted in this particular piece that none of the four teams were favored by more than 5.5 points, and perhaps it signaled a greater potential for upsets. That turned out to be the most prophetic words I shared.
Recent years have produced some wild action in this round. The 2019 season’s most exciting game saw Kansas City rally from a 24-0 deficit to beat Houston 51-31, and the Chiefs would eventually go on to win a Super Bowl title. Surely, you remember the 45-42 Jacksonville win at Pittsburgh in 2018, or the Minnesota Miracle that same season. Just last January, we witnessed a game dubbed one of the greatest playoff games in history where the Chiefs outlasted Buffalo 42-36 in an epic overtime shootout, a game that eventually ended up forcing postseason overtime rules changes which we are now under. There are plenty more great games like that in the past years of the divisional round, but rather than looking back at specific games, we’re going to instead look back at some general trends in hopes of finding some nuggets that we can profit from in this year’s contests.
So, let’s start digging through the NFL Divisional Playoff log of recent seasons to see if we can’t uncover some trends and systems that we can apply when handicapping this weekend’s games.
General Divisional Playoff ATS Trends
– The outright winner owns a 33-10-1 ATS (76.7%) mark in the last 44 divisional playoff games. This is actually below the 2022-23 regular season standard of 78.5%. If you recall, in last week’s Wild Card article, outright winners were on a much stronger 54-7-1 ATS run and proceeded to go 4-2 ATS last weekend.
– Since the road teams last held an edge (3-1) in 2009, home teams were on a convincing run of 36-12 SU and 25-22-1 ATS in the divisional round prior to 2022. That changed with road teams going 3-1 SU and ATS last year. Thus, hosts are now 15-12-1 ATS in the last seven years, re-emphasizing the importance of not only home-field advantage, but the extra week of rest and health that comes for teams securing a bye in the Wild Card round. Of course, for a third straight season, only the two #1 seeds enjoyed the luxury of having last weekend to rest.
– There have only been four road favorites in the last 26 years of the divisional playoffs, and San Francisco was the first to win in that scenario in 2014, beating Carolina 23-10. The other three lost outright and ATS, including Atlanta, who came up short 15-10 as a field goal favorite at #1 seeded Philadelphia in 2018. Unless we see a huge swing in any game or any late-breaking injury news, this trend will go untested again in 2023.
– Point spreads have proven to be a strong giveaway as to which team should win in divisional playoff games, as home favorites of 5.5-points or less (or underdog) are just 15-13 SU and 11-17 ATS (39.3%) since ’06, while those laying 6 points or more are 28-11 SU and 18-20-1 ATS in that same span. That’s a difference of over 18% outright & 8% against the point spread.
– Double-digit home favorites in the divisional round are on a 6-1 SU and ATS surge. Tennessee’s upset of Baltimore in 2019 is the only conflicting result in that group.
– Road teams have proven to be worthy bets in the divisional round when underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range, going 24-14-1 ATS (63.2%) in the last 39 tries (13-26 SU).
– In intra-divisional games of this playoff round, the road teams are on a 4-1 SU and ATS surge. Tampa Bay won in this scenario in 2021 at New Orleans. The Giants-Eagles contest is the only one in 2023 that pits divisional rivals.
– Here are the divisional round records since ’02 for the teams playing this weekend:
Jacksonville: 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS
Kansas City: 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS
NY Giants: 2-1 SU and ATS
Philadelphia: 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS
Cincinnati: 1-0 SU and ATS since 1990
Buffalo: 1-1 SU and ATS
Dallas: 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS
San Francisco: 4-1 SU and ATS
– There has been a significant performance difference in home/road dichotomy based upon the day of the weekend the Divisional Playoff game has been played on. On Saturdays, HOME teams have gone 21-5 SU and 18-8 ATS (69.2%) over the last 13 seasons, however, both teams did lose a year ago. OVER the total is also 16-8 in those games. On Sundays, ROAD teams have performed much better, going 16-18 SU and 23-10-1 ATS (69.7%) since ’06! They were 1-1 SU and ATS in 2022.
– In terms of AFC/NFC breakdown, AFC home teams are 19-8 SU and 14-12-1 ATS (53.8%) in the last 27, while NFC hosts are 23-11 SU and 15-19 ATS (44.1%) since ’06 in this playoff round, and NFC hosts have currently lost three straight.
– In terms of Wild Card teams’ potential success in the divisional round, note that 15 of the last 19 Wild Card teams to cover the spread in divisional games played well defensively in the prior game, allowing 20 points or less. For this weekend, only Cincinnati and Dallas played well enough defensively to qualify for this potential trend.
– With three of this last weekend’s winners topping the 30-point mark, it should be noted that all of the last six teams that scored 31 points or more in their Wild Card wins covered their divisional point spreads. This does not include the Chiefs and Bills from 2022, as they squared off against one another. This will affect the Bills, Jaguars, and Giants in 2023, as the Cowboys and 49ers cancel each other out.
Divisional Trends by New/Returning Playoff Team
– When both teams in a divisional playoff matchup were not in the playoffs last season, as was the case most recently in the 2020 Minnesota-San Francisco matchup, home teams are 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS since ’05, having gone OVER the total all but one game. For 2023, there are no such matchups.
– Returning playoff teams from the prior season playing as hosts in the divisional round to teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior year are just 12-9 SU but 6-15 ATS (28.6%) in their last 21 games when playing as single-digit favorites, including 0-2 SU and ATS last year. Kansas City and Philadelphia will test this trend this weekend.
– In divisional playoff games when both teams were in the playoffs the prior season, hosts are 19-6 SU and 14-10-1 ATS when favored by 5.5 points or more. This last applied to the Houston-Kansas City matchup in 2020 but will go untested in 2023 unless the Buffalo line reaches -5.5.
– There are no such cases in 2023, but in 2020, Green Bay played as a non-returning playoff team hosting a returning playoff team in the divisional round. Those teams are now on a 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS run since ’08. All four of this year’s hosts played in the postseason last winter.
Divisional Trends by Seed Number
– Teams fight all season long to have home-field advantage throughout their conference playoffs. However, that advantage has not lasted long as #1 seeds are 25-13 SU but just 13-24-1 ATS (35.1%) dating back to 2004.
– Making matters worse for the #1 seeds is their record versus #6’s, as in that matchup, the home teams are just 11-7 SU and 5-12-1 ATS (29.4%) since ’06. Green Bay lost in this scenario to San Francisco last year, and for 2023, Philadelphia is hosting the Giants.
– #1 seeds playing as small home favorites of 7 points or less are on an ugly 4-12-1 ATS (25%) slide in the divisional round. As of press time, both #1’s were favored by 8.5-points on Saturday, and don’t figure to be affected by this trend.
– #2 seeds have been arguably more effective than #1’s when it comes to protecting home-field advantage in the divisional round, going 25-11 SU and 20-16 ATS (55.6%) over the last 18 playoff seasons.
– NFC #1 seeds have been fairly strong in recent years, going 8-2 SU in their last ten. In the last five games, they allowed just 13 PPG.
– Of the last 33 teams that pulled off road wins in the Wild Card round to advance to this weekend, 20 of them have covered the point spread (62.5% with one push) and 12 have won a second straight road game outright. The Giants and Cowboys will be seeking a second straight road win this weekend.
Divisional Trends Regarding Totals
– In the last 28 matchups between a #1 seed and a wild card team, or a road winner from the prior weekend, UNDER the total is 19-8-1 (70.3%) with the home team scoring just 22.2 PPG. This is the case in the Giants-Eagles matchup.
– #2 seeds are a high-scoring surge at 16-8 OVER (66.7%) in the last 12 years, including 2-0 last season. These teams themselves have averaged 30.5 PPG in that span. Buffalo & San Francisco are the #2 seeds for 2023.
– Home teams that have covered the point spread in divisional round games are also on a 19-4 OVER (82.6%) the total surge! Hosts averaged 34.0 PPG in those contests. Alternatively, road team covers have seen 13 UNDERS and 5 OVERS (72.2%) since ’14. The hosts scored 11.5 PPG fewer in those road covers. In other words, home teams cover with offense, road teams cover with defense.