When you consider that the NBA playoff goes on typically for over two months, it essentially is a second season. Unfortunately, with the enhanced stakes as compared to the regular season, there are a lot of different factors that go into handicapping the proceedings. First, with the series aspect, you have a situation where teams are facing one another up to seven consecutive times. This leads to a lot of ebb and flow. Knowing how teams react to wins and losses at this time of year is key. Second, winning games is crucial. Unlike the regular season, individual stats, and perhaps point spreads even, don’t tend to matter as much. Thirdly, and this can’t be overstated, if players can play, they will. Unlike the regular season where injuries and workload days off run rampant, you’ll typically get the best a team has to offer for every game, although the recent admissions by Pelicans’ star Zion Williamson might have some bettors questioning even that.
After what was a far-from-satisfying regular season for most NBA apologists, this is the time of year when they are supposedly validated. For NBA bettors, it can be a tricky time as well, as they are finally getting to utilize trends and systems that come when teams are playing with equal motivation. When analyzing the games over the next couple of months, it’s most important to arm yourself with logic-based historical trends and systems from recent playoff action. In this article, the first of what will be a round-based series, I am going to help uncover some of that information, sharing some of the most prominent recent betting data that has affected the NBA playoffs, with a focus on the first round. I will be doing this same type of analysis for each of the rounds as the postseason progresses. Look for the second round of analysis in a few weeks.
Looking back quickly at some recent playoff results, one should first acknowledge the success of outright winners in postseason games. In fact, after last year’s 78-9 ATS record for outright winners, they are now on a three-year run of 227-23-6 ATS, a winning percentage of 90.8%. In other words, if you believe an underdog has a chance to cover a point spread, you should also consider their ability to win outright as well. Alternatively, rather than buying lines down, or backing favorites on money lines, laying the actual point spread has proven a better strategy. In addition, for those interested in overall home/road trends in recent playoff action, note that hosts are 100-72 SU and 88-83-1 ATS (51.5%) in the last two postseasons.