Makinen: March Madness First-Round matchup trends
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Continuing my series on qualifying all of the trends I posted in my Round-By-Round and Conference articles in the VSiN Tournament Betting Guide to the specific 2023 matchups, I am here to share the First Round data. I am doing this to take some of the prep time off your plate to make sure we don't miss any golden opportunities. Hopefully, you were able to catch my first piece on the First Four games that was released on Tuesday, as it showed some definitive angles towards the UNDERS'as well as Pittsburgh in those games. Let's get right into it, and you'll see that I've also added any pertinent head-to-head series trends when they were definitive.

First-Round Trends

Overall Trends

– Teams that didn't make their conference tournament championship game are on a first-round slide of just 32-57-2 ATS (36%) versus conference champions, making them good go-against teams. This includes a record of 4-6 ATS in 2022, with outright losses by San Francisco, Connecticut, and Kentucky among those games.

– Power conference schools that lost SU and ATS in their conference championship game are 56-14 SU and 39-29-2 ATS (57.4%) in the first round over the last 14 seasons, perhaps a sign that the tournament experience they gained was valuable despite the conference championship loss.

– Oddsmakers have done bettors a favor by signaling first-round upsets, as small first-round favorites of -1 to -3 are just 49-55 SU and 38-62-4 ATS (38%) since '09.

– Of late, mid-level favorites of -3.5 to -7.5 have also struggled, going 30-20 SU but 20-30 ATS (40%) since '16 in the first round.

– Only six first-round favorites of 14.5 points or more out of 166 have lost outright while going 80-81-4 ATS (49.7%), so while a near automatic bracket advancement, these teams are coin flips as point spread wagers. Of course, Kentucky was the most recent to do so, losing 85-79 to St. Peter's last March.

By Seeds

– There are some sweet spots when it comes to betting #1 seeds. As favorites of -19 to -25 points, they are just 12-21 ATS (36.4%) since '09. When favored by 18.5 or less, they are on an 8-1 ATS run'

– #1 seeds have flexed their muscles defensively over the last six tournaments, going 10-2 UNDER the total (83.3%) while holding opponents to 59.3 PPG.

– Be wary of laying big numbers with #2 seeds, as they are just 12-23-1 ATS (34.3%) since '05 when favored by 17 points or more. This includes four straight ATS losses and an upset of Kentucky a year ago

– The last 19 #3 seeds to play in first-round games are on an impressive 18-1 SU and 12-7 ATS (63.2%) surge, including 10-2 ATS (83.3%) as favorites of 11.5 points or more.

-'#3 seeds playing as single-digit favorites are on a massive UNDER the total run, 20-6 (76.9%) since '03, with games producing almost 7.2 PPG below their posted numbers on average. (

-' #4 seeds have been somewhat unreliable lately for bettors, going 11-20-1 ATS (35.5%) over the last eight tourney seasons, including 5-13-1 ATS (27.8%) when favored by 8.5 points or more.

– #12 seeds are now on a 31-18-3 ATS (63.3%) run against the #5 seeds'since '09, highlighted by a 16-7-2 ATS (69.6%) record when playing as underdogs of 6 points or more. ()

– Power Conference Schools are 22-18 SU and 11-27-2 ATS (28.9%) as #5 seeds in the first round since '08. As #12 seeds, they are on a 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) surge.

– Of the last 24 #5-#12 matchups, 18 have gone OVER the total (75%), including another three of four in 2022.

#6 seeds are 24-28 SU and 19-32-1 ATS37.3%) in their last 52 first-round games versus #11's (also 33-18-1 UNDER – 64.7%)

– In #6-#11 games set with the #6 playing as an underdog or pick em', the #6's are just 4-11 SU & ATS (26.7%) since '01. This is a classic trap set by oddsmakers and it happened again in 2022, with #6 Colorado State losing to Michigan.

-' Be aware of a total opportunity when #6 seeds are favored by 4 points or more, as UNDERS are 15-5 (75%) in such games since '09, with games producing just 129.9 PPG on average, with totals of about 137.6.

– Non-power conference schools playing as #7 seeds have been a sound wagering choice, 21-9-1 ATS (70%) since '04. In last year's bracket, #7 Murray State (-2) edged San Francisco by 5.

– #7-#10 matchups have been some of the higher-scoring tilts of late, going 17-10 OVER (63%) since '15.

– #8 seeds went 1-3 SU and ATS in 2022, running their four-year mark to just 5-11 SU and ATS (31.3%).

-'As small favorites of 3 points or less over #9's, #8 seeds are on a brutal skid of 7-14 SU and 4-16-1 ATS (20%)!

– Of the last 21 #8-#9 matchups, 16 have gone OVER the total (76.2%).

– Combined, non-power conference programs playing in the #4-#6 seeds over the last 20 years have gone 26-23 SU but 18-30-1 ATS (37.5%). They have been far more successful against the spread in the lesser pressure #7 & #8 seeds, 33-23-4 ATS (58.9%) in that same time range.

– Power conference programs have been very dangerous in the #11-#14 seed range, going 26-16 SU and 26-15-1 ATS (63.4%) since '08.

Applicable Conference Trends for First-Round Games

ACC

– Besides putting two teams in the Final Four in 2022, the'ACC'enjoyed a banner performance overall in last year's tournament, 14-5 SU and 15-4 ATS (79%). ()

-In the role of pick em' or small underdog (up to 4.5 points), ACC teams are currently on a 12-3 ATS (80%) surge.

ACC teams are just 28-46-1 ATS (37.8%) as favorites of 5 points or less in the NCAA's since '98.

ACC teams playing as double-digit seeds are 14-6-1 ATS (70%) since 2012.

In the 16 most recent NCAA tourney matchups between the ACC and Big East, OVER the total is 12-4 (75%).

America East

-'Vermont's ATS win versus Arkansas in 2022 ran the America East record in the NCAAs to 11-3 ATS (78.6%) since 2011.

America East teams are 14-8-1 UNDER (63.6%) the total in NCAAs since '03

American Athletic

American Athletic'teams have won their last 7 NCAA tourney games versus fellow mid-major teams ATS (100%).

-As seeds #7-#10, American Athletic'teams have been dangerous lately, going 11-8 SU and 14-5 ATS (73.7%) in their last 19 tourney tries.

Atlantic 10

-'Atlantic 10 teams have won just two of their last 10 NCAA tourney games, both SU and ATS (20%).

-'Favorites are on a 17-4 SU and 14-7 ATS (66.7%) surge in Atlantic 10 NCAA tourney games since 2015.

Atlantic Sun

-'Atlantic Sun teams are on a 10-4 ATS (71.4%) run in NCAA tourney games since '13, including 8-3 ATS (72.7%) vs. major conferences, however, they have lost two in a row on both trends

Atlantic Sun teams are on 12-5 OVER (70.6%) the total run in NCAA's.

Big Ten

-'Big 12'teams have been dominant in the Play-in/First-Round games of the tournament since '17, going 25-8 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%). (

– Favorites are 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS (68.8%) in their last 16 NCAA tournament games between the Big 12 and Big Ten.

-Against mid-major teams in the NCAAs, Big 12 teams are on a 13-5 ATS (72.2%) surge.

-Underdogs are on a 15-3 ATS (83.3%) run in NCAA tourney games between Big 12 and Pac 12 teams. Big 12 teams are just 6-12 ATS (33.3%) in those contests.

As favorites of 7 points or more in the NCAAs, Big 12 teams are on a current run of 22-1 SU and 15-8 ATS (65.2%).'

Big East

– NCAA tourney games between the Big East and ACC have gone 12-4 OVER the total (75%) since '13

– Favorites are 28-14 ATS (66.7%) in the last 42 Big East NCAA tourney games.

– In NCAA tourney games between Big East programs and non-major conferences since '15, favorites are on a 21-8 SU and ATS (72.4%) run.

Big Sky

Big Sky teams are just 1-21 SU and 6-16 ATS (27.3%) in the tournament since 2001, including 3-15 ATS (16.7%) as an underdog of fewer than 20 points.

Big Sky teams have lost 20 straight NCAA tournament games against major conference teams, going 5-15 ATS (25%).

Big South

-'Big South teams are 8-3-1 ATS (72.7%) as #16 seeds in the tournament since '03, 3-7 ATS (30%) in all other seeds.

Big South teams are on a 15-4 UNDER the total (78.9%) tourney surge vs. major conference teams, scoring just 57.3 PPG.

Big Ten

Big Ten teams have been vulnerable in the #4 seed of late, 3-12-1 ATS (20%) in their last 16 tourney tries.

Big Ten teams have been strong in the double-digit chalk role in the tournament, 49-4 SU and 29-20-4 ATS (59.2%) since '98. However, Purdue did lose outright to St. Peter's a year ago.

Big Ten teams are on a 10-4 SU and 12-1-1 ATS (92.3%) vs. SEC foes in the NCAA tourney.

Big Ten teams have gone just 5-17 ATS (22.7%) since '15 in the NCAA tournament vs. Big 12 and Pac 12 foes.

– In tourney games with single-digit point spreads versus mid-major conference foes in the NCAA's, Big Ten teams are on an ugly 26-43 ATS (37.7%) skid since '06.

Big West

-'Big West teams are just 4-18 SU and 8-13-1 ATS (38.1%) in their last 22 NCAA tournament games.

Big West teams have trended OVER on totals in the NCAAs since '99, 18-13 (58.1%).

Big West teams have struggled in the role of large underdog, 1-19 SU and 7-13-1 ATS (35%) when catching 6.5 points or more in the tourney'since '98.

Colonial Athletic

Colonial Athletic teams have been the country's best in terms of NCAA tournament spread performance, 26-11-3 ATS (70.3%) since '01. However, they have lost their last three games, both SU and ATS.

Colonial Athletic teams are on a 23-8-2 ATS (74.2%) run as NCAA tourney dogs to major conference teams. Again though, they are off three straight losses currently.

– UNDER the total is 7-2 (77.8%) in the last 9 Colonial Athletic NCAA tournament games versus other non-power conference teams

Conference USA

-'Conference USA teams are just 6-16 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) in the NCAA's since '09.

Conference USA teams are on a brutal slide of 4-23 SU and 5-22 ATS (18.5%) as single-digit underdogs in the NCAA tournament.

Conference USA teams seeded in the bottom half of the tournament (seeds 9 or worse) are on a 10-24 SU and 12-22 ATS (35.3%) skid.

Horizon

-'Horizon League teams have lost 11 of their last 12 NCAA tourney games while going 4-8 ATS (33.3%).

-'Horizon League teams are on a 15-7 UNDER the total (68.2%) NCAA run.

-'Line placement has been key in Horizon League NCAA tourney games. As dogs of 8 points or more, they are 0-13 SU and 4-9 ATS (30.8%) since '02. In all other games, they are 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS (73.3%).

Ivy

-'Ivy League teams have gone 5-11 SU and 10-6 ATS (62.5%) in their last 16 NCAA tourney games.

Ivy League teams are on an 18-9 UNDER the total (66.7%) NCAA run, including UNDERS in all of the last 5.

-'As underdogs of 6 points or more in the NCAA's, Ivy League teams are just 1-17 SU and 7-11 ATS (38.9%) since 2000. They are also 15-3 UNDER the total (83.3%) in those games, scoring just 58.4 PPG.

Metro Atlantic

-'St. Peter's snapped a 13-game NCAA tourney losing streak for Metro Atlantic'teams by winning three times last year. MAAC teams are now 5-1 ATS (83.3%) in their last 6 tourney tries, including 4-0 ATS (100%) as double-digit dogs.

Mid-American

-'Mid-American'teams are 14-5 ATS (73.7%) in their last 19 NCAA tourney games as a #13 seed or worse, but 9-11 ATS (45%) in other seeds during that stretch.

Mid-Eastern

-'MEAC teams are on a 4-14 SU and 5-13 ATS (27.8%) slide in the NCAA's.

-'MEAC teams are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS (20%) in their last 10 NCAA tourney games as double-digit dogs.

– NCAA Tourney games featuring MEAC teams have trended heavily UNDER on totals, 18-8 (69.2%) in the last 26.

Missouri Valley

-'Missouri Valley teams are on a 20-13 SU and 20-12-1 ATS (62.5%) run in the NCAA tournament since 2013 and are on an 18-8-1 ATS (69.2%) run against power conference schools.

Missouri Valley teams have covered 12 of their last 14 (85.7%) and are 18-6-1 ATS (75%) since '07 as an NCAA tournament underdog or pick em'.

-Underdogs are 19-6-1 ATS (76%) since 2013 in Missouri Valley NCAA tourney games.

-UNDER the total is 13-6 (68.4%) in the last 19 Missouri Valley NCAA tourney games.

Mountain West

-'Mountain West teams' struggles in the NCAAs haven't been that well-documented, but collectively they are just 21-53 SU and 22-49-3 ATS (31%) since 2001, including nine straight outright and ATS defeats!

– As tournament underdogs, Mountain West teams are just 8-37 SU and 11-31-3 ATS (26.2%) since '01.

Mountain West teams have also come up short in the favorite role lately as well in the NCAAs, 5-12 SU and 4-13 ATS (23.5%) since '11.

Mountain West teams have been totally overmatched against major conference programs in the NCAAs since 2000, 9-42 SU and 12-37-2 ATS (24.5%).'

-As seeds of 8 or worse in the NCAAs, Mountain West teams are on a brutal 3-29 SU and 5-25-2 ATS since '03! %).

Northeast

-'Northeast Conference teams have lost 15 straight First-Round NCAA tournament games while going 5-9-1 ATS (35.7%).

-'Twelve of the last 19 Northeast Conference NCAA tourney games have gone OVER the total (63.2%).

Pac-12

-'Underdogs are on a 13-5 ATS (72.2%) surge in NCAA tourney games between the Pac-12 and'Big Ten conferences. The Pac-12 has won the last 5 SU and ATS.

-'Pac-12 teams have performed extremely well as underdogs lately in NCAA tourney games, 35-16 ATS (68.6%) since '11

  
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