Ahead of UFC 302's headlining lightweight championship bout at Prudential Center, read about our Makhachev vs. Poirier prediction based on the odds from our best UFC betting sites.
Islam Makhachev puts the lightweight strap on the line against Dustin Poirier at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. It's his third title defense since submitting Charles Oliveira to win it in late 2022, topping Alexander Volkanovski twice, most recently beating the ex-featherweight champ by KO this past October. Makhachev heads to the Garden State on a gaudy 13-fight win streak with eight stoppages.
As for the challenger, Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier, 35, last vied for the lightweight throne in late 2021, ultimately falling short to Oliveira by submission. The fan favorite has alternated wins and losses over his last four walks to the Octagon but got back in the win column at UFC 299 in March, where he dispatch ed Benoit Saint-Denis by KO to earn one last shot at undisputed lightweight gold. He meets Makhachev with a promotional record of 22-7.
In conjunction with all of our UFC 302 odds, here is our best Makhachev vs. Poirier prediction and UFC 302 expert picks (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Makhachev vs. Poirier prediction and pick
- Fight prediction: Makhachev moneyline (-588 via BetMGM) ????
- My best bet: Makhachev by submission (-105 via bet365) ????
Makhachev vs. Poirier fight analysis
As much as we'd all love to see Poirier donning the lightweight strap before he calls it a career, the 35-year-old's dream isn't likely to be realized at Makhachev's expense.
The blueprint to a Makhachev victory has already been drafted by cornerman and fellow sambo stylist Khabib Nutmagomedov, who dominated Poirier en route to a tapout victory back in 2019 at UFC 242. Boasting first-rate wrestling, ruthless top control, and a varied submission arsenal, Makhachev should waste little time imposing his will and getting the fight to the mat and up against the cage, where he'll handcuff Poirier and advance position in pursuit of a tapout.
Granted, Poirier remains an elite lightweight with at least a puncher's chance and underrated scrambling ability, but he's been out-grappled by superior mat technicians before, and with a significant strike defense of over 60 percent, Makhachev won't make an easy target while the pair remain upright. All this to say, expect Makhachev to do what he does best and deprive Poirier of his ever-elusive feel-good moment.
Given Makhachev's lengthy win streak, Poirier's loss to his teammate, and the latter's reputation for faltering when the stakes are highest, the lines on this matchup are predictably lopsided, with FanDuel listing a straight Makhachev victory at a whopping -650 as of Friday morning. The lines at our remaining top sportsbooks only offer slightly better value, as BetMGM leads the pack at -588 on a successful title defense for the champ.
Prediction: Makhachev moneyline (-588 via BetMGM)
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Makhachev vs. Poirier best bet
Tasked with an excellent and ever-game striking technician in Poirier, Makhachev would be a fool to keep this matchup standing. The defending king's grappling stats are frightening, as he averages 3.17 takedowns per 15 minutes, scores on 60 percent of his attempts, and boasts a handful of tapouts over his current winning streak.
Once the action hits the mat, look for Makhachev to make Poirier wear his weight and pepper him with ground-and-pound for a stanza or two before wrapping up another dominant effort with an arm-triangle choke for a 12th career victory by submission.
Unlike the moneyline on Makhachev, a tapout win for the defending titleholder offers solid value for such a heavy favorite. As of Friday morning, the lines on a Makhachev submission top out at -130 with DraftKings, and you'll find the best value at a respectable -105 at bet365.
Best bet: Makhachev by submission (-105 via bet365)
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Makhachev vs. Poirier odds
(Odds via BetMGM as of Friday)
| Makhachev | Method of victory | Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| -588 | Win outright | +425 |
| +275 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +650 |
| +500 | Win by unanimous decision | +1400 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
| Makhachev | Poirier | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 35 |
| 5 foot 10 | Height | 5 foot 9 |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| 70.5 in. | Reach | 73 in. |
| 25-1 | Record | 30-8 |
Makhachev vs. Poirier fight info
- When: Saturday, June 1st
- Where: Prudential Center, Newark, NJ, US
- How to watch: ESPN+, PPV
- Favorite: Makhachev -588 (via BetMGM)
Makhachev-Poirier pick made Friday at 10 a.m. ET
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