The Dallas Mavericks have dominated the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals, and we're offering our top Luka Doncic player props based on the best NBA odds for Tuesday's Game 4.
The Western Conference Finals have been dominated by Luka Doncic, with the Dallas Mavericks holding a 3-0 lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves. Thanks to Doncic's stellar play, Dallas is a 2-point home favorite for Tuesday's matchup at American Airlines Center, which tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Doncic, a leading contender by the NBA Finals MVP odds, could secure a sweep with another explosive performance, solidifying the Mavericks' place in the NBA Finals. Dallas is currently no longer than +200 in the NBA championship odds.
Along with our Timberwolves vs. Mavericks player props, here are our best Luka Doncic player props predictions fo r Tuesday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Luka Doncic odds, player props
- Luka Doncic Over 48.5 points + rebounds + assists (-106 via FanDuel) ???
- Luka Doncic Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (+100 via Caesars) ????
- Luka Doncic Over 1.5 steals (-108 via FanDuel) ???
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The legendary Bill Walton once said, “You don't win championships by just being normal, by just being average.” No player in this year's NBA playoffs has taken that to heart more than Doncic, who is putting up numbers as silly as a Pac-12 game with Walton on the call.
A knee sprain limited Doncic earlier in the postseason, but he's tak en his game up a notch against the vaunted Timberwolves defense. He's averaging 32.7 points, 8.7 assists, and 7.7 rebounds (49.1) and finished with a triple-double in Game 2. What's made him so hard to stop is his ability to win inside the arc.
When the Timberwolves commit to him, he takes advantage with his lob game to the plethora of talented frontcourt players Dallas deploys. These odds imply a 51.46% win probability, according to our odds converter. A winning $10 bet on this prop pays out $19.43.
Best odds: -106 via FanDuel
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Two weeks ago it looked like injuries might be catching up to Doncic. He shot under 30% from 3-point range in seven of eight games between April 26 and May 13. Then, he awoke from his slumber like a pissed off Snorlax to lead Dallas to five straight wins, including two over the Oklahoma City Thunder to advance to the WCF.
Since Game 5 against the Thunder, Doncic has gone 22-for-49 from behind the arc (44.9%) while hitting at least four threes in four of his last five games. The Timberwolves seem to have no answers for his range.
Having gone 10-for-22 in his last two games against Minnesota, I couldn't pass up the even-money odds on this prop. These odds imply a 50% probability Doncic hits the Over with a winning $10 bet paying a $10 profit.
Best odds: +100 via Caesars
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The scoring, the game-winning shot, and the nasty lob passes are getting most of the attention when it comes to Doncic, and rightfully so, but he's been a sneaky good defender in the playoffs, particularly against Minnesota.
Doncic is built like a tight end at 6-foot-7, 230 pounds and he's been doing a great job utilizing his size as a defender. After averaging 1.4 steals per game in the regular-season, he's been even better in the playoffs with 1.7 per game – and 2.7 against Minnesota. The T-Wolves have been turnover-prone all season, with the ninth-most per game (14.2) while allowing 7.5 steals.
Doncic has taken advantage of Minnesota's mistakes with two games of at least three steals, including five in Game 3. These odds imply a 51.92% probability he'll pick up at least two, and a $10 bet pays out $19.26.
Best odds: -108 via FanDuel
Luka Doncic player props picks made Monday at 1:30 p.m. ET.
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